Week 3 DraftKings Tournament Picks
How to Attack Week 3 DraftKings Tournaments
The first decision we need to make when building Week 3 DraftKings tournament teams is what to do with the Chargers-Vikings game.
It has a huge 54.5-point over/under, the highest we’ve seen so far this season.
And, frankly, it’s tough to see the game busting considering how good both offenses are – and how bad both defenses are.
|Offensive dvoa||defensive dvoa|
I certainly won’t be full-fading the game in any lineups. But I’m leaning toward more mini-stacks (particularly Joshua Kelley + Justin Jefferson and Alexander Mattison + Mike Williams) than full-stacking it.
A few reasons:
- Stacking these passing games is expensive.
- Stacking these passing games will be chalky.
- There are a lot of other high-upside spots this week (five other teams with an implied total of 25.75+ points)
Let’s get to the stacks and players I’ll be building my Week 3 DraftKings tournament teams around:
Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) + Travis Kelce ($7,200)
Mahomes is coming in at just 8% projected ownership. Despite his Chiefs having the highest implied total of the week (30.25) in a home game against the Bears.
Folks figure to shy away from this stack because they don’t think Chicago will keep up with Kansas City. That’s probably true.
But the Chiefs have shown us that they’re willing to keep their foot on the gas even with big leads. Just last year, they had wins of 44-21, 44-23, and 31-13.
Mahomes’ passing lines in those blowout wins:
There’s 30-point upside here, even if the Bears don’t make this game competitive.
As for Kelce, he saw nine targets in his return last week … despite being limited to just 28 pass routes.
Completely off the Week 3 injury report, expect Kelce to be back to a full-time role this Sunday. Big volume should follow, especially considering the Chiefs’ ongoing issues at WR.
Bears WR D.J. Moore ($5,700) and TE Cole Kmet ($4,300) are worth considering as runbacks. But you can also play the Chiefs stack without a Bear.
C.J. Stroud ($5,300) + Nico Collins ($5,300) + Tank Dell ($3,600)
There are a bunch of high-priced players in pristine spots this week, namely Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Tony Pollard.
One way to get two of those guys into a lineup is to play this Texans stack. Stroud, Collins, and Dell cost just $14,200 total – or 28.4% of the salary cap.
We’re looking for about 57 points from the trio to return tournament value. They combined for 76.3 just last week.
The Texans have been letting their rookie QB chuck it. Stroud ranks third with 91 pass attempts through two weeks. He should be busy again on Sunday with Houston 8-point underdogs in Jacksonville.
RB Travis Etienne ($6,900), WR Calvin Ridley ($7,200), and WR Christian Kirk ($5,400) are strong runbacks on Texans stacks.
- Lamar Jackson ($7,700) + Mark Andrews ($6,000) + Zay Flowers ($5,400)/Rashod Bateman ($4,600)
- Trevor Lawrence ($6,800) + Calvin Ridley ($7,200) + Christian Kirk ($5,400)
- Deshaun Watson ($6,100) + Amari Cooper ($5,700) + Elijah Moore ($4,700)/David Njoku ($4,200)
Travis Etienne, Jaguars ($6,900)
This looks like an obvious bounce-back spot for Jacksonville’s offense, coming off last week’s dud vs. the Chiefs.
I expect that bounce-back to funnel through Etienne.
The Jags are 7.5-point home favorites with a 25.5-point implied total against a Houston team that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA.
Etienne has been a workhorse through two weeks, handling 76.9% of Jacksonville’s RB carries and drawing a 10.8% target share.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($6,600)
We don’t know exactly what this backfield will look like without David Montgomery on Sunday.
But we did get a glimpse last week, after Montgomery exited late in the third quarter. Gibbs played 65% of the offensive snaps the rest of the way and split carries three to three with Craig Reynolds.
Even a 50% carry share for Gibbs would be awesome considering he’s handled just 25.9% of RB carries so far.
It’s worth noting that Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official website predicted that Gibbs will get around 15 carries vs. the Falcons on Sunday.
And, of course, he’ll play a big role in the passing game. Gibbs racked up nine targets on a 56.4% route rate last week.
This could certainly be the breakout spot for the rookie. If it is, you’ll want him in your tournament lineups.
Joshua Kelley, Chargers ($5,400)
Alexander Mattison, Vikings ($5,800)
One way we can get at least a little unique in this Chargers-Vikings game is by playing the RBs. Both guys flopped last week – but are in excellent spots here.
Kelley gets a Vikings squad that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has allowed 4.8 yards per carry to RBs.
And while he disappointed in the box score last week, the usage was there for Kelley:
- 79.4% snap rate
- 63.8% route rate
- 13 of 18 RB carries
The fantasy community is just about done with Mattison, who’s mustered just 3.3 yards per carry through two games.
But those two games have come against the Bucs and Eagles, who rank 12th and fourth in run defense DVOA this season.
The Chargers rank 25th.
Minnesota gets LT Christian Darrisaw back this week and might also get C Garrett Bradbury back.
- Tony Pollard ($8,000)
- Ken Walker ($6,200)
- Raheem Mostert ($6,000)
- Gus Edwards ($5,300)
- Kendre Miller($4,300)
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($9,000)
Hill could see truly absurd volume on Sunday with WR Jaylen Waddle out.
Per Sharp Football’s Rich Hribar, Hill has drawn a 43.2% target share on routes without Waddle on the field since the start of last season.
Hill certainly isn’t a sneaky DraftKings play. But we have him projected for 18% ownership, well below Justin Jefferson’s 27%.
Amari Cooper, Browns ($5,700)
Elijah Moore, Browns ($4,700)
I’m not sure I have the cajones to play a full-on Browns stack this week. But I’ll definitely be playing these WRs as one-offs.
The Titans again look like a big pass-funnel defense this season. Through two weeks, they rank second in run defense DVOA and 23rd in pass defense DVOA. Tennessee’s two opponents have registered 67% and 68% pass rates against them.
Not surprisingly, the Titans rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Cooper has drawn a strong 24.6% of Browns targets through two games, despite missing some time in Week 1. Per CBS’ Jacob Gibbs, Cooper has registered a 33% target share when on the field this season.
Moore has been woefully inefficient so far, with a 37.5% catch rate and 4.9 yards per target. That’s bound to improve. And he’s seen 23.2% of Browns targets – a nice share for a $4,700 WR.
- Justin Jefferson ($9,300)
- Mike Williams ($6,000)
- Christian Kirk ($5,400)
- Zay Flowers ($5,400)
- Nico Collins ($5,300)
- Jayden Reed ($3,800)
- Tank Dell ($3,600)
Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($3,900)
It’s not as bad for Pitts as you might think.
He ranks second among all TEs with a 92% route rate through two weeks. He’s drawn a decent 16% target share. And he ranks first at his position in air-yards share and fifth in total air yards.
There’s still a high ceiling here, at least relative to other TEs in this price range.
The Falcons are 3-point underdogs in Detroit on Sunday, so they might be forced to pass more than Arthur Smith would like.
A Kyle Pitts + Jahmyr Gibbs mini stack is enticing.
Taysom Hill, Saints ($3,300)
Hill carried nine times for 75 yards last week, with six of those carries coming after RB Jamaal Williams exited with his hamstring injury.
Williams and RB Alvin Kamara are out for Sunday’s game vs. the Packers. RB Kendre Miller will play, but it’s unclear how much work the rookie will be ready for after missing most of the offseason. RB Tony Jones just isn’t very good.
So Hill has a shot to again play a big role in the running game.
Don’t forget that he had a 37.1 DraftKings point outing last season.
- Travis Kelce ($7,200)
- Mark Andrews ($6,000)
- David Njoku ($4,200)
- Dalton Kincaid ($3,400)