Week 4 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks
Top Plays for DraftKings Head-to-Head and 50/50 Contests
Here are the guys I’m zeroing in on for DraftKings Week 4 head-to-heads and 50/50s:
Russell Wilson, Broncos ($5,800)
Justin Herbert ($7,800) and Kirk Cousins ($7,100) are strong cash plays. But I’m opting to pay down in order to fit a high-priced RB and WR into the Week 4 cash lineup.
Wilson is off to a solid start in real life and fantasy. He ranks 10th among QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade and has averaged 21.4 DraftKings points per game.
Sunday brings his best matchup yet. The Bears rank 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs, despite facing the 12th fewest pass attempts through three weeks. They sit 31st in pass defense DVOA. And they’ll be without starting CB Jaylon Johnson and starting S Eddie Jackson.
Denver’s 25.0-point implied total is the seventh-highest on the main slate.
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($9,200)
Here’s the first reason we’re paying down at QB.
McCaffrey has opened the season with outings of 28.9, 25.5, and 22.9 DraftKings points.
His 49ers are 14-point favorites with a week-high 28.75-point implied total at home for the Cardinals: An ideal spot for a RB.
Arizona ranks 19th in run defense DVOA and 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.
49ers WR Deebo Samuel is iffy with rib and knee injuries, and WR Jauan Jennings won’t play. So McCaffrey could be an even bigger part of the offense than usual on Sunday.
James Cook, Bills ($6,300)
It sucks that Cook isn’t getting goal-line looks. But he’s getting everything else.
Cook’s current ranks among RBs:
- 15th in carries
- 9th in targets
- 14th in expected PPR points
Sunday brings a matchup vs. a Dolphins defense that’s looking like a bit of a run funnel. Miami ranks 12th in pass defense DVOA but 26th in run defense DVOA. And teams have registered the 13th highest rush rate over expected vs. the Dolphins.
The Bills, meanwhile, are “only” eighth in pass rate over expected through the first three weeks of the season.
I think we’ll get a bit more Cook on the ground this weekend than you might expect.
Kyren Williams, Rams ($6,000)
Williams has been in a truly absurd role the last two weeks:
- 99% snap rate
- 81% route route
- 24 carries
- 17 targets
Williams ranks second among RBs to only Tony Pollard in expected PPR points.
Simply put, he’s too cheap for his current usage.
The matchup works in his favor this week, too, against a Colts defense sitting 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.
Also consider: Tony Pollard ($7,800), Zack Moss ($6,000)
Keenan Allen, Chargers ($7,900)
Allen’s 39 targets through three weeks rank second to only WR Puka Nacua.
Allen leads the league with 32 catches.
It’s tough to imagine his role getting much bigger sans WR Mike Williams. But it’s also tough to imagine it getting smaller. Williams leaves behind 8.7 targets per game on a 21.3% share.
So Allen is a strong volume bet at this price tag.
The plus matchup against a Raiders team sitting 29th in pass defense DVOA is a bonus.
Tank Dell, Texans ($4,600)
We’re going back to the well with Dell, whose price still hasn’t caught up to his usage.
Over the past two weeks, the rookie has racked up 17 targets and the ninth most air yards among all WRs.
He’s parlayed that usage into 20.2 and 28.5 DraftKings points.
I am concerned about Houston’s banged-up offensive line (that’ll be down to its third-string LT on Sunday) vs. T.J. Watt and the Steelers.
But Pittsburgh also currently ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Josh Palmer, Chargers ($4,000)
Another Chargers WR? Yep.
This team ranks seventh in pass attempts through three weeks and first in WR receptions.
There’s a lot of opportunity here with Mike Williams out of the picture.
Quentin Johnston is the best long-term fantasy bet in Williams’ absence. But the rookie’s game still needs some refining.
Palmer, meanwhile, is not a big talent. But he’s proven capable of producing in this offense when given the opportunity.
In three games without Williams and with Keenan Allen last season, Palmer posted the following receiving lines:
He saw 28 total targets on a 22.6% share across those three games.
I expect Palmer to play more snaps and run more routes than Johnston in Week 4, making him the better cash-game play.
Also consider: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800), Courtland Sutton ($5,300), Adam Thielen ($4,500)
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($3,400)
We’re looking for the cheapest viable option at the wasteland known as the TE position.
So Pat Freiermuth, come on down!
Freiermuth is coming off 3-41-1 receiving line last week that made him the TE8 in PPR points.
He registered a solid 16% target share in that one after disappointing volume the previous two weeks.
Freiermuth should remain a relatively strong target bet with WR Diontae Johnson is out. And his price is down $700 from where it opened the season.
The Texans rank 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs and 25th in TE coverage DVOA.
The Browns rank No. 1 in a bunch of defensive metrics through three weeks.
On DraftKings, they’ve scored 9, 7, and 12 points.
They’re at home this weekend for a Ravens offense that will be without WRs Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman and LT Ronnie Stanley.
Baltimore’s 19-point implied total is fifth-lowest on the main slate.