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Week 5 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola 3:01pm EDT 10/6/23

Top Plays for Head-to-Head and 50/50 Contests

Here are the guys I’m zeroing in on for DraftKings Week 5 cash games:

 

Quarterback

Joshua Dobbs, Cardinals ($5,200)

If you’d told me a month ago that I’d be playing Dobbs in cash, I’d have told you to keep drinking.

But the guy has scored 25.2, 17.1, and 23.4 DraftKings points the last three weeks.

Dobbs is throwing it well. He’s posted a 71% completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, and four TDs vs. 0 INTs over his last three outings.

More importantly for his cash-game floor, Dobbs has been running. His ranks among QBs on the season:

  • 4th in rushing yards
  • 5th in carries
  • 3rd in designed carries

That last mark makes Dobbs’ rushing production easier to count on going forward.

The matchup is good this week, too, against a Bengals squad sitting 19th in pass defense DVOA and 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

QB Patrick Mahomes ($8,200) is in an ideal spot in a dome in a likely high-scoring game vs. a beatable Vikings defense. He’s certainly a solid cash play. 

But saving the $3,000 on Dobbs allows us to load up at RB and WR.

 

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($7,700)

Robinson’s price is actually down $300 from Week 1.

He’s off to a strong start, averaging 19.1 DraftKings points per game. Despite scoring 0 rushing TDs and just 1 total TD.

Robinson’s share of Atlanta’s rushing attempts has climbed each week, hitting 64% last week.

And his passing-game role has been elite all season. Robinson’s 71.7% route rate and 18.5% target share both rank third among all RBs.

He gets a nice matchup this weekend against a Houston defense that’s looking like a run funnel. The Texans rank seventh in pass defense DVOA but 28th in run defense DVOA. And they sit 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Robinson is a safe cash play at this price – and there’s 30-point upside.

Alvin Kamara, Saints ($6,300)

Kamara stepped right in as New Orleans’ workhorse in his 2023 debut last week.

  • 75% snap rate
  • 70% route rate
  • 11 of 12 RB carries
  • 14 targets (36% share)

The 14 targets were largely a product of QB Derek Carr’s bum shoulder. Carr is still on the injury report this week, though, so we could get a bunch more dumpoffs to Kamara this week.

Even if we don’t, Kamara is simply underpriced for his role.

The game environment is far from ideal vs. the Patriots, who rank eighth in run defense DVOA. 

But New England does sit 24th in RB coverage DVOA, adding upside to Kamara’s passing-game production.

D’Andre Swift, Eagles ($6,000)

Swift separated from RB Kenneth Gainwell last week, out-snapping him 45 to 27 and out-carrying him 14 to four.

Expect that type of usage to continue – because Swift has been awesome.

He’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry and ranks sixth among 51 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus rushing grades.

Swift has scored 30.1, 17.8, and 17.9 DraftKings points the last three weeks, with the last two coming alongside Gainwell.

He’s in a nice spot on Sunday against a Rams team sitting 24th in run defense DVOA. 

The game’s 50-point over/under is second-highest on the week. Philadelphia’s 27.25-point implied total is third-highest.

Also consider:

  • Joe Mixon ($6,400)
  • De’Von Achane ($6,100)
  • Isiah Pacheco ($5,700)

  

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($9,000)

Hill has faced two teams sitting in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA this season. He’s scored 47.5 and 33.7 DraftKings points in those games.

The Giants rank 29th in pass defense DVOA.

Adam Thielen, Panthers ($5,100)

The targets keep coming for Thielen. He saw eight of them last week, bringing him to 31 over his last three games. Only eight WRs tallied more.

The Panthers are 10-point underdogs in Detroit this weekend, so there should be plenty of passing volume.

The Lions’ defense is much-improved this season but still ranks just 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs through four weeks.

Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($5,000)

Brown is hogging targets, racking up 27 of them on a 29% share over the last three weeks.

We saw this last year, too, when Brown registered a 24% target share in eight games without DeAndre Hopkins.

Brown has parlayed this year’s volume into 17.4, 17.1, and 16.6 DraftKings points in his last three games.

Sunday brings a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Also consider:

  • Justin Jefferson ($9,400)
  • Tank Dell ($4,800)
  • Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000)

  

Tight End

Tyler Conklin, Jets ($3,200)

Conklin has totaled 17 targets on a 16.7% share over the last three weeks – both top 15 marks among TEs.

He gets a Broncos defense on Sunday that can’t stop anything, including TEs. Denver ranks 29th in TE coverage DVOA and dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

 

Defense/Special Teams

Titans ($2,400)

DraftKings made it tough this week. There’s not a single DST under $3,000 that’s a “good” play.

You can certainly get up to the Saints ($3,000) or Jets ($3,100). But I’m pinching pennies with the Titans.

This isn’t a good real-life defense. But Tennessee has averaged a decent 7.3 DK points per game, with at least three sacks in all four outings.

The Titans’ stout run defense tends to lead to elevated dropbacks for their opponents, which is what we want out of our fantasy defense.

 

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