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Week 5 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 9:22pm EDT 10/7/23

Stacks

Tua Tagovailoa ($7,100) + Tyreek Hill ($9,000) + Jaylen Waddle ($7,500) or Raheem Mostert ($6,200) or De’Von Achane ($6,100)

The Dolphins offense is not invincible. It’s been contained to an extent by solid Patriots and Bills defenses.

But in two games against teams sitting in the bottom half of the league in defensive DVOA, Miami has scored 36 and 70 points.

This weekend brings a matchup against the Giants, who rank:

  • 27th in defensive DVOA
  • 29th in points allowed
  • 23rd in yards per play allowed

It’s a blowup spot for the Dolphins, who are implied for a week-high 30 points.

What makes Dolphins stacks even more appealing is that this remains a concentrated offense. If Miami has a big game, there’s a strong chance it’s coming from some combination of Hill, Waddle, Mostert, and Achane.

I’m going all in on the Dolphins this week, playing multiple Tagovailoa + Hill teams and mixing in the other three guys.

Also consider:

  • Patrick Mahomes ($8,200) + Travis Kelce ($7,600) + Rashee Rice ($3,600)
  • Kirk Cousins ($6,900) + T.J. Hockenson ($6,500) + Jordan Addison ($5,300)
  • Zach Wilson ($4,900) + Garrett Wilson ($6,000) + Tyler Conklin ($3,200)

 

Running Backs

This isn’t a week to get weird at RB. There are clear optimal plays at the position, and we should be willing to eat the ownership on these guys, while getting unique elsewhere.

Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($7,700)

He gets a run-funneling Texans defense that ranks seventh in pass defense DVOA but 28th in run defense DVOA.

David Montgomery, Lions ($6,600)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs’ absence should mean an even bigger workload for Montgomery, who’s tallied 21 and 32 carries in two games with Gibbs this year. Carolina ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Raheem Mostert ($6,200) and De’Von Achane ($6,100), Dolphins

Slate-high 30-point implied total for the Dolphins against a Giants team sitting 22nd in run defense DVOA and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Achane is the better value but is also projected for almost three times the ownership (23% to 9%). Use Mostert with chalkier stacks; Achane on teams that are otherwise low-owned.

D’Andre Swift, Eagles ($6,000)

He took control of Philly’s backfield last week, out-snapping RB Kenneth Gainwell 45 to 27 and out-carrying him 14 to four. The Eagles have big 27.5-point implied total vs. a Rams defense ranked 24th in run defense DVOA.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($5,700)

His usage continues to trend up. Pacheco set season highs last week with a 60% snap rate and 77% share of the RB carries. There’s big TD upside here with the Chiefs sporting a 28.25-point implied total.

Breece Hall, Jets ($5,400)

We’ll see exactly how much work the Jets are willing to give Hall, who’s no longer on a pitch count. But he doesn’t need a ton of touches to have big-game potential against a pathetic Broncos defense sitting 31st in run defense DVOA.

 

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson, Jets ($6,000)

Volume hasn’t been a problem for Wilson. He’s racked up 31 targets on a 30.4% share over the past three weeks – both top-10 marks at WR.

Now QB Zach Wilson is coming off one of his best games as a pro. Just in time for a Broncos squad ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA.

Wilson figures to see a bunch of CB Patrick Surtain. But the former All-Pro has struggled so far, sitting 57th among 98 qualifying CBs in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades.

Tank Dell, Texans ($4,800)

WR Nico Collins had the big game last week.

But it was Dell who led the Texans in targets and production the previous two weeks, scoring 20.2 and 28.5 DraftKings points.

I still think this is a 1A/1B situation, rather than Collins being Houston’s clear top dog. So the pendulum could easily swing back to Dell this week.

The matchup is favorable against the Falcons, who rank 27th in pass defense DVOA.

Also consider:

  • Justin Jefferson ($9,400)
  • Tyreek Hill ($9,000)
  • Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900)
  • Nico Collins ($5,600)
  • Marquise Brown ($5,000)
  • Josh Reynolds ($4,200)
  • Josh Downs ($3,700)
  • Rashee Rice ($3,600)
  • Jonathan Mingo ($3,300)
  • Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,000)

 

Tight End

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,200)

Goedert is too good – and his offense too good – for him not to have some big weeks this season.

The playing time has been there. In fact, Goedert’s 92% route rate leads all TEs.

The targets and production have not been there. But HC Nick Sirianni said this week that he wants to get Goedert going. This could be a squeaky-wheel situation.

The matchup could also push the ball Goedert’s way. The Rams rank 28th in TE coverage DVOA and 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. They just gave up two TDs to Colts TEs last week.

Tyler Conklin, Jets ($3,200)

Conklin has tallied 17 targets on a 16.7% share over the last three weeks – both top 15 marks among TEs.

Next up is a Broncos defense that ranks 29th in TE coverage DVOA and dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. Bears TE Cole Kmet just dumped 27.6 DraftKings points on Denver.

Conklin is projected for just 2% ownership.

Also consider:

  • Travis Kelce ($7,600)
  • T.J. Hockenson ($6,500)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Lions ($3,800)

Dolphins ($3,600)

Jets ($3,100)

Patriots ($3,100)

Saints ($3,000)

Cardinals ($2,800)

Steelers ($2,700)

  

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