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Week 6 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola 8:41pm EDT 10/13/23

Top Plays for Head-to-Head and 50/50 Contests

Here are the guys I’m zeroing in on for DraftKings Week 6 cash games:

  

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, Rams ($6,100)

Stafford is primed for an explosion.

He already ranks second in the NFL with 203 pass attempts and fourth with 1,451 passing yards.

But he hasn’t really popped in fantasy because he has just five TDs. Stafford’s 2.5% TD rate is fourth lowest in the league. For perspective, he owned a career 4.7% TD rate and a 5.6% TD rate with the Rams prior to this season.

The TDs should start coming this week against a Cardinals squad that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

The Rams’ 27.75-point implied total is second-highest on the main slate (and 3.5 points above No. 3).

 

Running Backs

Travis Etienne, Jaguars ($7,100)

Etienne’s role has been even better than his biggest fans could have imagined.

He ranks second among RBs in carries and eighth in targets. He’s even seen 10 carries inside the opponent’s five-yard line.

Etienne is in a nice spot this weekend with his Jaguars four-point home favorites with a 24.25-point implied total vs. the Colts.

Indianapolis ranks a middling 17th in run defense DVOA and 22nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Etienne scored 21.4 DK points when these teams met back in Week 1.

Raheem Mostert, Dolphins ($6,400)

Sunday brings us a matchup between the No. 1 team in rush offense defense vs. the No. 32 team in rush defense DVOA.

This could get ugly.

The Panthers are coughing up 5.2 yards per carry to opposing RBs and have already allowed four RBs to hit 20+ DraftKings points. They rank 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

We’ll see exactly how much extra work Mostert picks up with RB De’Von Achane out and RB Jeff Wilson not yet ready to make his 2023 debut. But it’s worth noting that Mostert registered a 73% snap rate and 65% route rate over the first two weeks of the season, before Achane emerged.

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers ($4,300)

RB Miles Sanders’ absence leaves Hubbard as Carolina’s lead back in Miami this weekend.

Sanders and Hubbard have combined to average 19.2 carries and 7.6 targets per game this season. 

I’m certainly not expecting Hubbard to soak up all of that. The Panthers also have RB Raheem Blackshear and could use WR Laviska Shenault in the running game.

But Hubbard is a good bet for 15+ touches – which makes him very tough to leave out of cash lineups at this price.

Hubbard has ran reasonably well this year, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and ranking 13th among 42 qualifiers in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt.

The Dolphins rank 24th in rush defense DVOA and 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Also consider:

  • Alvin Kamara ($6,800)
  • D’Onta Foreman ($4,400)

 

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($8,300)

Chase is coming off a huge 55.2-point outing, with QB Joe Burrow looking as healthy as he has all season.

Chase’s fantasy production had been muted by Burrow’s struggles prior to last week, but the volume has been there all along. He’s up to 60 total targets – second to only Puka Nacua’s 63.

The targets should be flowing again this weekend against a pass-funnel Seahawks defense. Seattle ranks second in rush defense DVOA but 25th in pass defense DVOA.

The Seahawks sit 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and have already allowed six WRs to score 18.6+ DK points.

Adam Thielen, Panthers ($5,900)

Thielen dropped another 30-burger last week. He’s now averaged 25.2 DraftKings points over the last four games, with at least 15.2 points in all of them.

More importantly, Thielen has racked up 44 targets on a 26.8% target share over those four outings.

He’ll cool off eventually. But I don’t think the Dolphins will be the team to cool him off. Miami ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($5,300)

Brown remains way too cheap on DraftKings.

He’s averaging 15.2 DK points per game and has topped 16 in four straight.

Brown’s usage has been strong. He ranks:

  • 15th among WRs in targets
  • 10th in air yards
  • 15th in expected PPR points

The Rams have been tough on WRs so far, ranking fifth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. But they sit just 22nd in pass defense DVOA.

It’s not a matchup to worry about.

Also consider: 

  • Tyreek Hill ($9,300)
  • Josh Downs ($4,100)

 

Tight End

Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,500)

Thomas is averaging 11.9 DraftKings points per game – despite missing the second half of Week 2.

He’s tallied 25 total targets, including 22 in his three full games.

Two things are fueling that strong volume:

  1. The Commanders rank first in Pass Rate Over Expected and fifth in pass attempts.
  2. Washington TEs have accounted for 24.6% of the team’s targets. (League average is around 20%.) Thomas has registered a 17.9% share in his three full games.

Thomas gets a Falcons defense on Sunday that ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. Atlanta has allowed:

  • 5-41-1 to Hayden Hurst in Week 1
  • 8-84-1 to Sam LaPorta in Week 3
  • 7-59-0 to Evan Engram in Week 4
  • 7-65-1 to Dalton Schultz in Week 5

 

Defense/Special Teams

Lions ($2,700)

Detroit ranks top 7 in:

  • Yards allowed
  • Yards per play allowed
  • Pro Football Focus defense grade
  • Defensive DVOA

From a fantasy perspective, the Lions have averaged 8.4 DraftKings points per game, with at least seven in four of five outings.

They’re underpriced for Sunday’s matchup against an inconsistent-at-best Baker Mayfield. 

Tampa’s 19.75-point implied total is fifth-lowest on the main slate.

Also consider: Browns ($2,200)

 

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