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Week 6 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 8:41am EDT 10/16/21


Despite seeing our first dose of bye weeks (SF, NYJ, ATL and NO), the main slate is chock full of great offenses this week. Similar to last week, we’re missing a few great offenses on the main slate such as Tampa, Buffalo, and Tennessee, so decision-making and game selection will be crucial.

Let’s ride.


QBs

Matthew Stafford ($6,700)

8.2% Projected Ownership

Expected to be one of the higher owned QBs on the slate, I’m okay eating a bit of chalk with Stafford this week. Everything aligns for a big Stafford game.This game projects as the fastest-paced of the entire main slate with both teams under 30 seconds per play and a combined pace of only 58 seconds.

Stafford and the Rams passing offense also has the second biggest advantage of any offense on the slate in terms of pass offense DVOA vs. pass defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The Rams also have an implied point total of 29, the second-highest only to the Chiefs.

Daniel Jones ($5,500)

4.3% Projected Ownership

Jones appears to be on track to play following the concussion he suffered last week against the Cowboys. I like Jones a lot as a double leverage play that 1) pivots away from Stafford in this game & 2) pivots away from Taylor Heinicke at a similar price point.

The pace of this game is expected to be very high as mentioned above, and the Rams defense is without CB Darious Williams.

Justin Fields ($5,100)

1.3% Projected Ownership

Fields presents a lot of leverage this week for a couple of reasons. For starters, the matchup is fairly easy against the Packers, whose defensive DVOA has gone down each game and are without top CB Jaire Alexander. Second, Fields has burned DFS players two weeks in a row due to his lack of rushing, which can always change. Finally, with so many chalky RB plays this week, Fields allows for some differentiation if you eat the chalk on some of those options.

Cheap dart throw: Davis Mills ($5,200)


RBs

Joe Mixon ($6,400)

7.8% Projected Ownership

Mixon is an excellent GPP option this week if you need some leverage away from the more popular RBs. I expect D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Kareem Hunt and Antonio Gibson to be some of the highest-owned RBs on the slate. With Mixon sitting right between their price points, if he hits he can provide a massive advantage.

Mixon’s workload combined with this matchup vs. a Lions defense allowing the 2nd most adjusted fantasy points to RBs and sitting bottom 5 rushing defense is a promising combination.

D’Andre Swift ($6,300)

19.0% Projected Ownership

I’m going to keep playing D’Andre Swift until he’s priced as the top 8 RB he should be. The Bengals defense is currently allowing 51 targets to the RB position and the 6th most adjusted fantasy points overall to RBs.

Swift has posted a season-high in route rate and snaps in back-to-back weeks at over 70% in both categories with Jamaal Williams down around 15% routes and 30% snaps over the last 2 games.

Chase Edmonds ($5,600)

8.0% Projected Ownership

Edmonds is always a player that intrigues me on the DraftKings full PPR platform. With Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley out for this game, Chuba Hubbard and Devontae Booker will likely receive most of the ownership in this price range. Edmonds is currently 4th among all RBs with 26 targets and should be in for a solid receiving stat line against a tough Browns run defense.

Devontae Booker ($5,400)

12.4% Projected Ownership

Some people will be deterred away from the Rams matchup, but they haven’t been the stud defense against the run they were last season, ranking 15th in rush defense DVOA and giving up the 12th most adjusted fantasy points to RBs.

Booker played 88% of the snaps and received 16 of 17 RB carries after Barkley exited last week.

Will be highly owned but worth considering: Austin Ekeler ($7,900) & Jonathan Taylor ($6,600)


WRs

Cooper Kupp ($7,900)

15.9% Projected Ownership

The stacking partner to every point I made above regarding Stafford. Kupp and his 33% target share this season should reap the benefits of a fast-paced, mismatch of the Rams offense against the Giants defense. His TD production may have fallen off in the last 2 games, but the elite usage is still present.

Keenan Allen ($6,400)

10.3% Projected Ownership

Baltimore has been most vulnerable in the slot, with Tavon Young allowing 15-151-1 on 18 targets this season in coverage. This looks to be a get-right spot for Allen with Mike Williams having the tougher matchup on the outside and being banged up coming into this game. Despite Allen being overshadowed by Williams, he’s still commanding over 10 targets per game and has yet to have less than 8 in a single game.

Brandin Cooks ($5,800)

8.2% Projected Ownership

Nobody wants to play a Texans player, but Cooks has the third-highest target share in the NFL right now at nearly 34%. The Colts present a solid matchup (16th most adjusted fantasy points to WRs).They allowed Tyler Lockett and Marquise Brown to run wild — guys who profile similarly to Brandin Cooks.

Henry Ruggs ($5,200)

1.0% Projected Ownership

High-risk, high-reward GPP play. We know Ruggs is capable of hitting value in one play and there’s a good chance it happens this week. Kyle Fuller is the primary defender, according to PFF, and he has allowed a couple of long TDs to Chase Claypool, Marquise Brown and Darius Slayton this year.Fuller ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash at the Combine. Big-time speed advantage for Ruggs this week.

Other options: Sterling Shepard ($5,000) & Kadarius Toney ($5,600)


TEs

T.J. Hockenson ($5,200)

5.0% Projected Ownership

For just $200 more you can get up to Mark Andrews, which makes me gravitate towards Hockenson as a leverage play away from the casual player chasing the big week Andrews had on Monday. The targets have been a bit inconsistent for Hockenson and the Bengals haven’t been giving up much to TEs this year. But the highest-ranking fantasy TE they’ve faced is Tyler Conklin.

Tyler Higbee ($4,400)

2.0% Projected Ownership

Higbee provides leverage against many of the DFS players looking to stack Cooper Kupp and/or Robert Woods in a potentially high-scoring game. Instead, you can fade Woods or Kupp and use Higbee, who ranks 4th in red-zone targets at the TE position this year.

Other options: Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,000) & Evan Engram ($3,400)


DST

Lions ($2,100)

Not the greatest week for cheap defenses. But if you’re low on salary, the Lions face Joe Burrow, who’s averaging 1.5 turnover-worthy throws per game and has been sacked 3 or more times in 3 of 5 games this year.

If you can afford it: Colts ($3,500) vs Davis Mills


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