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Week 7 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola 10:18pm EDT 10/20/23

Top Plays for Head-to-Head and 50/50 Contests

Here are the guys I’m zeroing in on for DraftKings Week 7 cash games:

 

Quarterback

Sam Howell, Commanders ($5,500)

It hasn’t always been pretty, but Howell has scored 17+ DraftKings points in 5 of 6 games. (The other came vs. the Bills, who currently rank first in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.)

Howell continues to benefit from a pass-heavy Washington offense that ranks second in pass rate over expected and ninth in pass attempts.

And he’s averaging 17 rushing yards per game.

Howell draws a Giants squad on Sunday that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA and 15th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

We’ll just need to keep an eye on the weather, with significant winds forecasted in the northeast U.S. on Sunday.

If we need to pivot off Howell, Geno Smith ($6,000) is another strong value. His Seahawks are implied for the second-most points on the main slate vs. Arizona’s 30th-ranked QB defense.

 

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs, Raiders ($7,400)

This is west-coast Joe Mixon.

It hasn’t been pretty for Jacobs, who’s averaging 2.9 yards per carry this season.

But the volume keeps coming. Jacobs is averaging 17.8 carries and 5.8 targets per game and has tallied 22+ opportunities (carries + targets) in five of six outings.

He should be busy again this weekend with either Brian Hoyer under center for Las Vegas.

Despite the QB issues, the Raiders are 2.5-point favorites in Chicago. The Bears rank 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Ken Walker, Seahawks ($7,000)

Walker came out of the bye week and racked up 19 carries and three targets on a season-high 76% snap rate in the loss to Cincinnati.

Now RB Zach Charbonnet is likely out with a hamstring injury. And WR D.K. Metcalf (ribs, hip) is a game-time decision.

Walker figures to be the focal point of the offense on Sunday with Seattle 7.5-point home favorites. And he gets a Cardinals squad that ranks 29th in both run defense DVOA and adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($6,100)

Over the last three weeks, Pacheco has registered:

  • A 61% snap rate
  • A 70% rush-attempt share
  • A 10% target share

He’s averaging 17.3 carries, 3.3 targets, and 19.0 DraftKings points per game over that stretch.

It’s a strong role on a strong offense.

Sunday brings a favorable matchup against the Chargers, who rank 24th in run defense DVOA.

Pacheco’s Chiefs are implied for a slate-high 27.0 points.

Also consider: Jerome Ford ($5,100)

 

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp, Rams ($9,500)

It’s nice to have Kupp back in our lives.

He’s opened his 2023 campaign with games of 22.8 and 30.8 DraftKings points, totaling 21 targets on a huge 34.4% share.

Sunday brings a matchup against a Steelers defense sitting 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Pittsburgh has already allowed three WRs to top 35 (!!!) DK points against them.

In what figures to be a low-scoring slate, let’s take our 20-30+ points from Kupp and move on.

Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($5,300)

Brown let us down last week with 7.4 DraftKings points, but we’re going right back to him.

He racked up 11 targets in the loss to the Rams, including two deep balls that would have gone for TDs with better throws from QB Josh Dobbs.

A struggling Dobbs adds downside to Brown. But his usage is just too strong to ignore at this price.

Brown ranks:

  • 11th among WRs in targets
  • 9th in target share
  • 5th in air yards

Remember that he’d scored 16+ DK points in four straight prior to last week.

He gets a pass-funnel Seahawks defense on Sunday. Seattle ranks first in run defense DVOA but 24th in pass defense DVOA.

And only five teams have been worse in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants ($3,800)

A cash-game staple as long as his price stays south of $4K.

Robinson has seen 5, 6, 6, and 8 targets in his four games this season. And they’re of the short, high-percentage variety, which we like for cash games.

Robinson gets a Commanders defense this weekend that ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. 

Also consider: 

  • Zay Flowers ($5,700)
  • Curtis Samuel ($4,000)

 

Tight End

Luke Musgrave, Packers ($3,300)

Musgrave has totaled 22 targets in four healthy games this season, including 15 over his last two. He’s run a route on 70+% of pass plays in all four of those games.

It’s possible that his role even expands from there coming out of the bye week.

Musgrave gets a juicy Week 7 matchup vs. the Broncos, who rank 31st in TE coverage DVOA and 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Also consider: 

  • Jonnu Smith, Falcons ($3,600)
  • Michael Mayer, Raiders ($2,700)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Patriots ($2,100)

I won’t pretend this is a good play in a vacuum. The play is about the lineup the $2,100 price tag allows us to build around the Patriots DST.

There’s at least some upside here. QB Josh Allen duds every once in a while and will be playing through a throwing shoulder injury this weekend.

If you’re willing to go down to TE Michael Mayer, you can get up to the Lions ($2,700) or Ravens ($2,500) DST.

 

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