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Week 7 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 9:36pm EDT 10/21/23

Stacks

Jordan Love ($5,800) + Christian Watson ($5,600) + Luke Musgrave ($3,300) or Romeo Doubs ($4,900)

I’ll be the first to say that Love has not played well for most of the season so far. (I called him a mirage after Week 2.)

But we’re interested in fantasy points. And Love has been supplying those at least in spurts.

He’s scored 19+ DraftKings points in four of five games this season, including games of 23 and 25 points. 

Love is doing two things we like from our fantasy QBs:

  1. He’s running, with an average of 21.8 rushing yards per game.
  2. He’s throwing deep, with a league-leading 9.8 intended air yards per pass attempt.

That profile breeds fantasy upside, even if Love isn’t playing good real-life football.

His ceiling is vaulted this weekend against a bad Broncos pass defense.

Denver ranks:

  • 31st in passing yards allowed
  • 32nd in passing TDs allowed
  • 32nd in yards per pass attempt allowed
  • 32nd in pass defense DVOA
  • 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs

Green Bay’s 23.0-point implied total is tied for fifth-highest on the slate.

Love becomes an even more attractive tournament play when you look at the price tags on his pass-catchers.

Watson and Doubs are both top-13 values at WR, and Musgrave is our top value at TE.

They all have strong matchups. The Broncos rank 18th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and 29th vs. TEs.

Watson is the highest ceiling play. He topped 20 DK points in five of the final eight games of last season and owns a huge 19.8-yard average target depth through two games this year.

Doubs is a strong play if Watson ends up drawing shadow coverage from CB Patrick Surtain. In that case, Doubs would see CB Damarri Mathis, who ranks bottom-4 among 93 qualifying CBs in Pro Football Focus coverage grade, receiving yards allowed, and passer rating allowed in coverage.

Musgrave has tallied eight and seven targets in his last two healthy games. The 97th percentile athlete possesses plenty of big-play potential.

Also consider:

  • Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) + Travis Kelce ($8,000) and/or Rashee Rice ($4,700)
  • Matt Stafford ($6,500) + Cooper Kupp ($9,500) + Puka Nacua ($7,600)
  • Geno Smith ($6,000) + Tyler Lockett ($6,000) + Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,900)
  • Sam Howell ($5,500) + Terry McLaurin ($5,400) + Curtis Samuel ($4,000)

 

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($8,600)

In what figures to be a low-scoring week, it’s more important than ever to be on the players with slate-breaking upside.

That’s Ekeler, who boasts easily the highest ceiling at RB on a slate without Christian McCaffrey. Ekeler went for 29.4 DraftKings points back in Week 1 and topped 30 points four times last year.

He returned last week and stepped right back into a workhorse role:

  • 69% snap rate
  • 59% route rate
  • 14 carries
  • 6 targets

Chargers-Chiefs has the most shootout potential on this main slate.

And, while Kansas City’s defense has been solid this season, it’s been tougher against the pass than the run.

The Chiefs rank 21st in run defense DVOA, allowing 4.6 yards per carry to RBs.

Jerome Ford, Browns ($5,100)

Yes, Ford ceded more work to RB Kareem Hunt coming out of the bye last week.

But Ford still handled 17 carries and two targets and remained ahead of Hunt in snaps and pass routes.

Hunt is questionable for Sunday’s game vs. the Colts with a thigh injury. Even if he plays, he could give more work back to Ford.

The matchup is good against an Indianapolis squad that ranks a middling 18th in run defense DVOA and

24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. The Colts just lost DL Grover Stewart to suspension. He owns the top Pro Football Focus run defense grade among Colts front-7 players this season.

Latavius Murray, Bills ($4,400)

Murray probably isn’t going to pay off with yards or catches.

This is a TD-reliant play. 

But Murray has a much better chance to score 2+ TDs this weekend than this price tag would suggest.

He’s already carried six times inside the opponent’s five-yard line this season – tied for fourth most league wide. RB Damien Harris, who’s on IR, has two carries inside the five.

Murray is a strong bet to get the rock when the Bills run near the goal line on Sunday. And Buffalo’s 23.75-point implied total is third-highest on the slate.

Also consider:

  • Ken Walker, Seahawks ($7,000)
  • Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($6,100)
  • Brian Robinson, Commanders ($5,800)
  • Javonte Williams, Broncos ($5,400)

 

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp, Rams ($9,500)

Like Ekeler at RB, Kupp is the most likely WR to put this slate out of reach if you don’t have him. He’s worth paying for.

Kupp has scored 22.8 and 30.8 DraftKings points in two games so far this season. He’s hogged 21 targets on a huge 34.4% share across those two outings.

Kupp gets a Steelers defense this weekend that’s sitting 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. 

Pittsburgh has already allowed three WRs – Davante Adams, Nico Collins, and Brandon Aiyuk – to top 35 DK points against them.

Amari Cooper, Browns ($6,100)

Cooper has been excellent so far this season, despite Cleveland’s QB carousel. 

He’s averaging a career-high 16.7 yards per catch. His 2.15 yards per route run is the second-best mark of his career and ranks 22nd among 81 qualifying WRs this season.

Cooper gets QB Deshaun Watson back this week for a plus matchup against the Colts. Indianapolis ranks 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and has coughed up four huge games to the position already:

  • 9-163-1 to Puka Nacua
  • 7-146-1 to Nico Collins
  • 8-101-1 to Calvin Ridley
  • 8-140-1 to DeAndre Hopkins

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($3,9000

There’s a lot pointing to this being Smith-Njigba’s breakout game.

  1. He saw an improved role coming out of the bye last week, setting season highs with a 78% route rate and 7.4-yard average depth of target.
  2. D.K. Metcalf is a game-time decision with the hip injury he suffered last week. Even if he plays, it’s tough to imagine he’ll be anywhere close to 100%. That means more opportunity for Smith-Njigba.
  3. The Cardinals rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. They’ll be without primary slot defender Jalen Thompson again this week. The guy who replaced him last week, Antonio Hamilton, is also out.

At $3,900 and 5% projected ownership, JSN is a chef’s-kiss tournament play.

Also consider:

  • Stefon Diggs, Bills ($8,900)
  • Davante Adams, Raiders ($8,200)
  • Christian Watson, Packers ($5,600)
  • Terry McLaurin, Commanders ($5,400)
  • Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($5,300)
  • Romeo Doubs, Packers ($4,900)

 

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews, Ravens ($5,700)

I’m not saying that Andrews has a higher ceiling than Travis Kelce.

I’m just saying that he already has a 25.0-point game this season. Kelce has topped out at 24.4. And Andrews is $2,300 cheaper.

The Lions have emerged as a really solid defense. But if there’s a spot to attack them, it might be with the TE.

Detroit hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of TEs so far but has allowed a 75% catch rate to the position. Both Falcons TEs caught five passes vs. the Lions back in Week 3.

Jonnu Smith, Falcons ($3,600)

I don’t get it. No one wants to play Smith. 

He’s projected for 3% ownership, despite ranking ninth among TEs in targets and fifth in both catches and receiving yards over the past five weeks.

I don’t get it. But I’ll be playing him in tournaments.

Also consider:

  • Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($8,000)
  • Luke Musgrave, Packers ($3,300)
  • Dalton Kincaid, Bills ($3,100)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Browns ($3,300)

Seahawks ($3,200)

Steelers ($3,100)

Ravens ($2,500)

Chiefs ($2,400)

Patriots ($2,100)

 

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