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Week 8 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 7:50am EDT 10/30/21


We survived the Bye-mageddon and now we’re rewarded with plenty of star talents back on the main slate. Plenty of enticing games this week for tournaments, so game selection will be crucial.

Let’s ride.


QBs

Justin Herbert ($7,300)

The Chargers currently rank inside the top 5 in neutral pass rate and neutral pace of play. This game has the second-highest combined pace of the main slate and the Patriots defense just lost Jonathan Jones, one of their top corners. Herbert has thrown at least 38 times in every game this season and may see suppressed ownership due to his performance against New England as a rookie.

Jalen Hurts ($7,200)

Hurts is the only QB this season to top 20 DraftKings points in every game. We know he offers plenty of fantasy production with his legs, averaging 9.5 carries, 51.5 rushing yards, and 0.7 rushing TDs per game. But this game offers him a high passing ceiling facing the #32 defense in EPA per play and #27 in pass defense DVOA.

Joe Burrow ($7,100)

The Bengals offense has seen a shift in philosophy in the last few games. Since Week 4, the Bengals rank 1st in neutral situation pass rate in the first 3 quarters. With Jets QB Zach Wilson out for this game, the Bengals figure to dominate the time of possession. Both Matt Ryan and Mac Jones exceeded 20 DraftKings points against the Jets the past 2 weeks.

Carson Wentz ($5,700)

Wentz has thrown 2 TDs in 5 of 7 games this season and 4 straight games leading up to this week. All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson returned to the lineup last week and RT Braden Smith is set to return this week, which should help sustain the offense. The Titans defense is currently giving up the 7th most adjusted fantasy points to QBs.


RBs

Alvin Kamara ($8,700)

Kamara will see inflated ownership due to his blowup performance Monday night, but the Buccaneers matchup should be enough to scare some people. Kamara has seen 6.5 carries per game more than his career average of 12.9 in 2021. The targets have been slightly lower at 5.5 per game. But in one of the highest-scoring matchups of the week, Kamara will be a large part of the Saints scoring and this game script should be target-friendly for Kamara.

D’Andre Swift ($7,100)

I talk about Swift every week as a target on DraftKings. Three straight games of 70%+ snap share and yet another season in high with a 78% route rate and 32% target share last week. The Eagles are allowing top 5 RB targets this season and the 7th most adjusted fantasy points RBs.

Jonathan Taylor ($7,200)

Taylor has experienced a bump in his usage. 69% of the snaps last week marked the 2nd-highest rate he’s seen in his career and his highest all season. He also ran a route on 60% of Carson Wentz’s dropbacks in back-to-back games. He currently leads the NFL in red-zone touches with 36 and goal-line carries with 10. The Titans defense ranks 25th in DVOA. And the Colts offensive line getting healthy (mentioned above) benefits Taylor as well.

Myles Gaskin ($5,600)

Gaskin has seen varying usage in what seems to be a hot-hand approach in the Dolphins backfield. Malcolm Brown has been sent to the IR, though, which clears up this backfield as a 2-man committee with Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed. Gaskin received nearly a 70% share of the Dolphins backfield last season before Malcolm Brown arrived. The Bills should score heavily on the other side, leaving Gaskin in a target-friendly game script.

Also consider: Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,200) & David Johnson ($4,200)


WRs

A.J. Brown ($6,900)

Brown has commanded 28%, 38% and 33% target shares over the last three games since returning from his hamstring injury. Last week was the first game he was fully healthy (no hamstring or illness) entering play and he responded with a top 5 finish. The Titans will be without Julio Jones this week, leaving Brown to carry the passing offense. The Colts defense is a pass funnel, ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA but 1st in rush defense DVOA.

Chris Godwin ($6,400)

Mike Evans is expected to see shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore in this game.

These are Mike Evans’ receiving lines in games against New Orleans when he and Lattimore have matched up.

Godwin will be highly owned, but he’s what I would consider good chalk. It’s easy to project Godwin for 10+ targets with Evans in a tough matchup and no Antonio Brown. Plus, since he plays in the late games, you can late swap him out if your early plays were too chalky and you need some differentiation.

Courtland Sutton ($6,400)

Overshadowed by the return of Jerry Jeudy this week, Sutton will likely be under-owned. Jeudy is returning from a 6-week absence, so he’ll likely play limited snaps. The Washington Football Team defense is allowing the most adjusted fantasy points to WRs in the NFL and Sutton has the most air yards (928) and deep targets (18) of any WR.

Chase Claypool ($6,300)

Claypool saw his routes jump from 70% to 87% before the bye due to the injury to JuJu Smith-Schuster. The over/under of this game is only 42.5, but sharp action has 77% of the money on the over.

Cheap options: Cole Beasley ($4,900) & Laviska Shenault ($4,700)


TEs

T.J. Hockenson ($5,400)

Hockenson has commanded 20 targets over the last 2 games and has maintained his elite-level usage all season. He ranks 4th in route rate among TEs, 3rd in total targets and 3rd in air yards share. This game has a 48 point over/under. Hockenson also provides a great run-back option for Jalen Hurts stacks and is a good differentiator from Dallas Goedert.

Tyler Higbee ($4,500)

Running over 80% of the routes in an elite offense, Higbee also leads all TEs in red-zone targets with 12. The Rams have an implied point total of 31, which is the 2nd-highest on the slate only behind Buffalo at 31.25.

Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,800)

RSJ has fully absorbed the Logan Thomas role, running 83% or more of the routes for Washington since Thomas’ injury. At $3,800, he makes it possible to fit some of the higher-priced stacks into your lineups like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert.


DSTs

Washington ($2,100)

The Broncos are surrendering top 5 points to opposing defenses and the Washington defense still has a fierce pass rush capable of racking up sacks. At just $100 above the minimum, they also allow for lineup flexibility.

If you have the budget: Broncos ($3,400) vs Taylor Heinicke at home


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