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Week 9 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola 9:01pm EDT 11/3/23

Top Plays for Head-to-Head and 50/50 Contests

Here are the guys I’m zeroing in on for DraftKings Week 8 cash games:

 

Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($6,500)

Cheaper QBs – namely Derek Carr ($5,700), Gardner Minshew ($5,200), and Bryce Young ($5,100) – are certainly in play.

But it’s easy enough to get up to Prescott, who brings a much better floor/ceiling combination than the cheapies.

Dak is coming off a big 304-4-1 passing line in the win over the Rams. The Cowboys registered a +16% pass rate over expected in that one – easily a season high.

Now comes an Eagles defense that ranks No. 1 in pass rate over expected against. In other words, teams are opting to go pass-heavy against Philadelphia.

That makes sense considering the Eagles rank first in run defense DVOA but 23rd in pass defense DVOA. Only the Chargers are worse in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Prescott’s last three passing lines against the Eagles:

  • 347-3-1
  • 295-5-0 (Eagles rested starters)
  • 238-3-0

 

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara, Saints ($8,100)

Kamara scored another 27.0 DraftKings points last week, giving him 17+ in all five of his games this season and 21+ in three of five.

His Saints are 8.5-point home favorites vs. the Bears with a 25.0-point implied total – tied for second highest on the main slate.

Chicago has actually played the run tough this season, ranking 10th in run defense DVOA and limiting opposing RBs to 3.3 yards per carry.

But the Bears have struggled defending RBs in the passing game, ranking:

  • 30th in catches allowed
  • 32nd in receiving yards allowed
  • 32nd in receiving TDs allowed

A perfect matchup for Kamara.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($6,400)

It was a frustrating game from Taylor last week. He ripped off 94 yards on 11 carries in the first half -- but then carried just once in the second half.

If you look under the hood, though, Taylor still played 64% of the snaps in the second half. So it’s not like he gave way to RB Zack Moss. He just didn’t get the ball.

For the game, Taylor set season highs with a: 

  • 61% snap rate
  • 59% route rate
  • 50% rush-attempt share

This weekend brings a juicy matchup against the Panthers, who rank dead last in run defense DVOA and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Even if you project Taylor to split work down the middle with Moss, he’s a nice cash-game play at this price in this matchup.

Devin Singletary, Texans ($4,300)

RB Dameon Pierce’s absence should leave Singletary in something close to a workhorse role. Behind him on the depth chart: Mike Boone and Dare Ogunbowale.

Singletary has played reasonably well this year, averaging +.03 rush yards over expectation per carry – 24th among 45 qualifiers and well ahead of Pierce (-0.57).

He draws a Bucs defense that ranks second in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs but just 13th in run defense DVOA.

But this is really just a price + volume play for cash games. 

Also consider: 

  • Saquon Barkley, Giants ($7,900)
  • Josh Jacobs, Raiders ($6,900)
  • Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($6,100)
  • Rachaad White, Bucs ($5,600)
  • Chuba Hubbard, Panthers ($5,000)

 

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown, Eagles ($8,600)

Brown has scored 23+ DraftKings points in six straight games, averagng 11.2 targets per game.

He’ll likely find himself in a high-scoring game against the Cowboys this weekend.

And the coverage matchup sets up well for Brown. (Most do, of course.)

Per Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett, Brown has averaged a massive 4.29 yards per route against single-high coverage this year vs. a more-human 2.55 yards per route against two-high.

The Cowboys have played single-high coverage on 69% of their snaps this season – 2nd most in the league.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($8,200)

The Cowboys have seemingly remembered that Lamb in their best player, feeding him 21 targets on a 33% share over the last two games. That’s resulted in 21.7 and 44.0 DraftKings points.

Expect a pass-heavy game plan from Dallas this weekend, making Lamb an awesome target bet.

The Eagles rank 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and have allowed seven WRs to top 20 DK points this year.

Noah Brown, Texans ($3,100)

We need a cheap WR if we’re gonna play A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb.

Allow me to make the case for Noah Brown on this ugly main slate.

Brown operated as Houston’s primary slot receiver last week with WR Robert Woods out, running a route on 90% of Texans pass plays and drawing five targets for a 21% share.

Brown has a low 5.6-yard average target depth on the season, making him a relatively high-floor play.

Woods, who averaged eight targets over the first five games of the season, will remain sidelined for Sunday’s game vs. the Bucs.

Also consider:

  • Zay Flowers, Ravens ($5,700)
  • Terry McLaurin, Commanders ($5,600)
  • Michael Thomas, Saints ($4,700)
  • Jonathan Mingo, Panthers ($3,400)

 

Tight Ends

Daniel Bellinger, Giants ($2,500)

I won’t pretend that this is anything more than a price play.

TE Darren Waller’s absence leaves Bellinger as the Giants’ top TE vs. the Raiders on Sunday. 

Bellinger averaged 2.5 targets, 2.2 catches, and 22 yards across his 12 games last season.

If we can get 4-8 points out of him, we won’t be losing much ground to most of the TEs priced $1,000 to $1,500 higher.

Also consider:

  • Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,800)
  • Trey McBride, Cardinals ($3,700)
  • Michael Mayer, Raiders ($2,800)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Giants ($2,300)

This defense has scored 14 and 12 DraftKings points the last two weeks.

That’s come in plus matchups vs. the Commanders and Jets. But the Giants get another nice draw this Sunday against Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders.

O’Connell threw one INT and took seven sacks in his Week 4 start against a bad Chargers defense.

 

More Top DraftKings Picks:

 

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