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Wild Card Round DraftKings Picks

By Jared Smola 9:01am EST 1/3/20


QBs

It’s tough to get away from Drew Brees ($6,600). He’s easily our top projected QB on Wild Card Weekend but checks in 2nd at the position in DraftKings price and just $800 more than the cheapest QB, Tom Brady. The difference in dollars per point between Brees and the 2nd-best QB value (Josh Allen) is bigger than the gap between Allen and the 7th-best value (Kirk Cousins). Brees averaged 24.3 DK points in his 10 healthy games this season — and 27.7 at home.

If you’re looking to get away from a chalky Brees, consider Josh Allen ($6,500). The dual-threat QB has flashed plenty of upside this season, with 4 games of 22+ DK points. And he has the best QB matchup of the week against a Texans squad sitting 26th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and 29th in DK points allowed to QBs.


RBs

Alvin Kamara ($7,400) is the best value of the 3 stud backs playing this weekend, easily beating out the more expensive Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook in dollars per projected point. The TD dam has broken for Kamara, who has back-to-back 2-TD games. The Saints are big home favorites on Sunday with the highest implied total of the week.

Sony Michel ($4,600) checks in as the top value at RB. His lack of passing-game usage is a concern. But New England has started to lean on him, handing it to him 58 times over the past 3 weeks. Game flow should work in Michel’s favor on Saturday night with the Patriots 5-point favorites.

Sandwiched in between Kamara and Michel, Devin Singletary ($6,300) provides a nice combination of value and touch safety. The rookie averaged 17.2 carries and 3.2 targets over his last 6 games and gets a Texans defense ranked 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.


WRs

Even at $9,300, Michael Thomas is a screamin’ value. He averaged 25.3 DK points per game this season — and 30.7 at home. He draws the Vikings’ 29th-ranked WR defense on Sunday and figures to see a bunch of CB Xavier Rhodes, who’s allowed an 84.3% catch rate on targets in his direction this year. Thomas not only checks in as the best dollars-per-point value at WR … he’s also the best value at flex, beating out all RBs and TEs.

I like both Bills WRs against a flammable Texans secondary. Houston finished the regular season 21st in DK points allowed to WRs and 25th in adjusted fantasy points allowed. CBs Bradley Roby and Johnathan Joseph were both limited in practice all week with hamstring injuries and are listed as questionable for Saturday’s game. The Texans allowed the 2nd most PPR points on underneath targets (12 or fewer yards downfield), per Rotoworld’s Hayden Winks, so it’s a nice spot for Cole Beasley ($5,600). There’s always upside with the speedy John Brown ($6,000), who’s also brought a nice floor this season, with double-digit DK points in 13 of 15 games.

D.K. Metcalf ($6,100) is set up beautifully on Sunday. The Eagles surprisingly allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season. That’s primarily Tyler Lockett’s role. But Philly ranked bottom-2 in points allowed to both outside WR spots, where Metcalf has run 88% of his routes this year. Also worth noting: Metcalf trailed Lockett by just 1 target (56 to 55) over the final 8 games of the regular season.

Looking for a cheap WR? Consider N’Keal Harry ($4,100), Tre’Quan Smith ($4,000) and David Moore ($3,400).


TEs

Zach Ertz is looking unlikely to play vs. Seattle with his cracked rib and lacerated kidney. If he’s out, Dallas Goedert ($5,200) is the clear top play at TE. With Ertz limited in Week 16 and then out last week, Goedert totaled 22 targets, 13 catches, 156 yards and a score. He gets a Seahawks defense that sits 17th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings and 30th in DK points allowed to TEs.

Jared Cook ($4,900) isn’t nearly as safe as Goedert from a volume perspective, but he might have the higher ceiling. Despite averaging a modest 4.8 targets, Cook averaged 3.5 catches, 67 yards and .9 TDs over his final 8 games. He topped 20 DK points in 3 of those outings.

Jonnu Smith ($3,800) is your best bet among the cheap TEs. He closed the season with 11+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games. And the Patriots weren’t as dominant against TEs as they were against WRs this year, ranking 18th in DK points allowed to TEs.


DSTs

The Patriots ($3,400) and Saints ($3,000) are neck and neck for best value on the slate. Both teams are significant home favorites this weekend, and their opponents have the lowest (Titans, 19.5) and 3rd lowest (Vikings, 21) implied totals. Between the 2, I prefer New England against a Titans offense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.

If you need to save some cash, I’d look to the Texans ($2,600), who are the other home favorite on this slate. Bills QB Josh Allen did a nice job avoiding turnovers during the 2nd half of the season, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he reverted back to his old ways in his postseason debut.


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