Why Isn't Jake Ferguson Scoring More?

By Matt Schauf | Updated on Mon, Oct 28 2024 2:04 PM UTC

TE Jake Ferguson ranked second among Cowboys in targets (8) and receptions (6) in Sunday night's loss to the 49ers. He turned those catches into just 23 yards, though, averaging a mere 3.8 per reception. Blame a season-low 1.4-yard average depth of target as the primary culprit, according to Pro Football Reference. Ferguson averaged minus-1.3 yards before catch per reception for the game.

2024 Fantasy Football Impact

Ferguson has been a short-range operator, even compared with other TEs.

Pro Football Focus actually has his aDOT for this season a little deeper than last year's. But that still ranks Ferguson 19th among qualifying TEs, up from 30th in 2023.

The issue for Ferguson's fantasy production, though, has been a total lack of TD chances.

He got 9 end-zone targets last season. That tied for second-most among TEs and produced 3 TDs. Ferguson also tied for third-most red-zone targets (24) and scored on five of those.

Ferguson entered last night with just 6 red-zone targets, tied for 12th at the position. He added two more against the 49ers, but neither targeted him in the end zone.

The TE has yet to see an end-zone target this year. But that appears to be an issue with the offense rather than Ferguson's role.

According to Pro Football Reference, Dak Prescott has just six pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line so far this season. That's tied for 28th in the league. He finished last year with a league high 52 attempts in that range. That's about three per game.

We should be able to bet on that improving some, but I also wouldn't count on Prescott getting close to last year's number. The Cowboys rank just 26th in offensive DVOA right now -- 25th in pass DVOA.

Ferguson should remain a solid fantasy TE, especially for PPR formats. Just don't expect huge TD regression.

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.