Sunday's numbers might try to tell you that Chargers QB Justin Herbert rebounded for a wretched outing in the Week 2 loss to the Raiders for an OK performance at Buffalo. But those numbers are trying to lie to you.
Herbert Fails to Leverage Breakthrough Spot
The Bills supported a QB12 finish for C.J. Stroud in Week 1, allowing him 274 yards and 2 TDs on 26-of-38 passing (68.4% completions). Stroud has since completed just 56.1% of his throws at 6.3 yards per pass attempt with 1 more TD. He has completed 63.5% for his career, with a below-average 4.1% TD rate.
Buffalo buoyed a QB2 finish for Jared Goff in Week 2, allowing him 327 yards and 4 TDs on his 19th-best passer rating among 154 career regular-season games.
The offense and defense worked together to try to create favorable conditions for Herbert and the Chargers in Week 3. That included the Bills turning the ball over on three of their first four possessions, twice setting L.A. up in Buffalo territory.
Herbert cashed just one of those drives in for a TD, and even his 1-yard scoring "pass" to Keaton Mitchell to cap that was really a running play.
Herbert finished the day just 20 of 34 (58.8%) for 226 yards (6.6 YPA), no other TDs, and 1 INT, his fourth of the season.
This marked the first time in his career that Herbert has tossed his fourth INT before his fifth game of the season, and just the second time he has done so before Game 6.
This INT -- gifted to S C.J. Gardner-Johnson at the goal line -- looked particularly bad.
What They're Saying
Tom Brady, doing color commentary during the game: "There's a safety in the middle of the field! Poor awareness. Poor decision. Throws him a meatball sub."
2026 Fantasy Football Impact ... is Missing
Herbert's working on a career low in fantasy points per dropback. Per JJ Zachariason, the numbers look like this:
- 2020: 0.51
- 2021: 0.52
- 2022: 0.37
- 2023: 0.45
- 2024: 0.50
- 2025: 0.47
- 2026: 0.33
That 2022 Chargers team, by the way, found RB Austin Ekeler leading by 20 targets. WR Joshua Palmer landed second (at 107), while Mike Williams and Keenan Allen combined to miss 11 games.
And Herbert still fared better that year than he has so far in 2026.
There's simply no reason for optimism with the Chargers passing game at the moment. The scheme's not working, Herbert's playing poorly, and the pass catchers have provided him the fifth-highest drop rate among 2026 starters, according to Pro Football Focus.
And now come matchups with the Seahawks, Broncos, and Chiefs, all of whom rank among the top 12 in total defensive DVOA through three weeks.
Herbert's droppable in 1-QB formats where you see a more attractive option.
