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Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 10

By Jared Smola 11:50am EST 11/12/23

Welcome to Week 10’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 10 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 10!

 

Highest Game Totals

1. Lions at Chargers (48.5)

t-2. Texans at Bengals (46.5)

t-2. Broncos at Bills (46.5)

t-4. 49ers at Jaguars (44.5)

t-4. Commanders at Seahawks (44.5)

  

Lowest Game Totals

9. Titans at Buccaneers (39.0)

t-10. Packers at Steelers (38.5)

t-10. Giants at Cowboys (38.5)

t-10. Browns at Ravens (38.5)

13. Panthers at Bears (38.0)

14. Jets at Raiders (35.5)

    

Highest Implied Points

1. Cowboys (28.0)

2. Bills (27.0)

3. Bengals (26.0)

4. Lions (25.75)

5. Seahawks (25.25)

6. 49ers (24.25)

  

Lowest Implied Points

24. Packers (17.75)

25. Panthers (17.25)

26. Raiders (17.0)

27. Browns (16.0)

28. Giants (10.5)

    

Pass Rate Over Expected + Neutral Pace

Here's where every team ranks in Pass Rate Over Expected, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and plays per game through 8 weeks:

 

Total Points Per Game

Who's playing in shootouts? Who's playing in low-scoring games?

Here's where every team ranks in points per game + points allowed per game (with overtime removed):

 

Fastest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Colts vs. Patriots (23.8 seconds)

2. Saints at Vikings (25.3 seconds)

3. Jets at Raiders (25.9 seconds)

4. Falcons at Cardinals (26.8 seconds)

5. Lions at Chargers (26.8 seconds)

  

Slowest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap)

10. Packers at Steelers (27.6 seconds)

11. Titans at Buccaneers (28.0 seconds)

12. Broncos at Bills (28.0 seconds)

13. 49ers at Jaguars (28.5 seconds)

14. Panthers at Bears (29.1 seconds)

   

Weather Concerns

Commanders at Seahawks

60% chance of rain but winds under 10 mph. Not ideal, but not enough to impact our projections for this game.

Broncos at Bills

Sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts around 30 mph. That's enough to impact some deep balls and kicks. But don't make any drastic fantasy lineups changes based on this forecast.

   

Quarterback

5 Best Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Bills vs. Broncos (+85.0%)

2. 49ers at Jaguars (+55.0%)

3. Seahawks vs. Commanders (+54.7%)

4. Lions at Chargers (+44.7%)

5. Texans at Bengals (+44.4%)

 

5 Worst Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

24. Jets at Raiders (-9.0%)

25. Ravens vs. Browns (-9.7%)

26. Raiders vs. Jets (-23.9%)

27. Giants at Cowboys (-37.1%)

28. Browns at Ravens (-48.4%)

  

5 Best QB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jared Goff at Chargers (+43.6%)

2. Taylor Heinicke at Cardinals (+25.2%)

3. Geno Smith vs. Commanders (+24.1%)

4. Bryce Young at Bears (+17.1%)

5. Kyler Murray vs. Falcons (+14.9%)

  

5 Worst QB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Zach Wilson at Raiders (-18.2%)

25. Tyson Bagent vs. Panthers (-21.9%)

26. Lamar Jackson vs. Browns (-24.3%)

27. Aidan O’Connell vs. Jets (-28.7%)

28. Deshaun Watson at Ravens (-46.1%)

  

Running Back

5 Best Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Bears vs. Panthers (+11.3%)

2. Bills vs. Broncos (+7.3%)

3. Ravens vs. Browns (-2.7%)

4. Falcons at Cardinals (-4.0%)

5. Lions at Chargers (-4.9%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

24. Texans at Bengals (-29.8%)

25. Browns at Ravens (-29.8%)

26. Panthers at Bears (-38.3%)

27. Buccaneers vs. Titans (-40.6%)

28. Giants at Cowboys (-46.6%)

  

5 Best RB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Bills vs. Broncos (+72.3%)

2. Bears vs. Panthers (+37.2%)

3. Patriots vs. Colts (+27.2%)

4. Jets at Raiders (+26.6%)

5. Falcons at Cardinals (+26.2%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Giants at Cowboys (-20.4%)

25. Chargers vs. Lions (-20.5%)

26. Saints at Vikings (-23.8%)

27. Ravens vs. Browns (-25.2%)

28. Titans at Buccaneers (-27.0%)

 

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Seahawks vs. Commanders (+48.4%)

2. Titans at Buccaneers (+24.8%)

3. Packers at Steelers (+24.5%)

4. Buccaneers vs. Titans (+21.2%)

5. Jaguars vs. 49ers (+20.9%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Cardinals vs. Falcons (-16.3%)

25. Giants at Cowboys (-16.5%)

26. Ravens vs. Browns (-22.7%)

27. Bears vs. Panthers (-25.8%)

28. Raiders vs. Jets (-39.7%)

 

CB Matchup Upgrades

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. Texans CBs D'Angelo Ross and/or Ka'Dar Hollman (starter Steven Nelson out)

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Giants CBs Deonte Banks, Tre Hawkins, and Cordale Flott (starter Adoree Jackson out)

Seahawks WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett vs. Commanders CB Emmanuel Forbes

Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. Buccaneers CBs Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean

Falcons WR Drake London vs. Cardinals CBs Marco Wilson and Antonio Hamilton

 

CB Matchup Downgrades

Raiders WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel vs. Seahawks CBs Tariq Woolen, Tre Brown, and Devon Witherspoon

Browns WRs Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore vs. Ravens CBs Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Stephens, and Arthur Maulet

Vikings WR Jordan Addison vs. Saints CBs Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo

 

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Panthers at Bears (+47.4%)

2. Lions at Chargers (+34.2%)

3. Texans at Bengals (+31.9%)

4. Patriots at Colts (+26.3%)

5. Chargers vs. Lions (+24.0%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Cowboys vs. Giants (-24.5%)

25. Packers at Steelers (-31.2%)

26. Bears vs. Panthers (-35.0%)

27. Buccaneers vs. Titans (-38.1%)

28. Ravens vs. Browns (-49.5%)

 

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Cowboys vs. Giants (+116.1%)

2. Seahawks vs. Commanders (+81.4%)

3. Bears vs. Panthers (+67.1%)

4. Colts vs. Patriots (+56.7%)

5. Panthers at Bears (+54.2%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Browns at Ravens (-33.3%)

25. Broncos at Bills (-40.8%)

26. Lions at Chargers (-54.5%)

27. Bengals vs. Texans (-55.0%)

28. Jaguars vs. 49ers (-68.1%)

 

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jason Myers vs. Commanders (+45.6%)

2. Tyler Bass vs. Broncos (+37.8%)

3. Chase McLaughlin vs. Titans (+34.5%)

4. Matt Gay vs. Patriots (+33.4%)

5. Eddy Pineiro at Bears (+25.8%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups 

(based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Cameron Dicker vs. Lions (-18.6%)

25. Riley Patterson at Chargers (-20.4%)

26. Justin Tucker vs. Browns (-29.1%)

27. Jake Moody at Jaguars (-29.2%)

28. Graham Gano at Cowboys (-39.1%)

 

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