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Justin Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJustin Herbert's Basic Stats

Justin Herbert
ADP: 4.2
Bye: 8
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 24.3
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 240
40 Time: 4.68
SPARQx (Rank): 99.50 (79%)
Burst Score (Rank): 123.60 (91%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.52 (47%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 55.00 (50%)

Justin Herbert's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#4 Quarterback

370.1 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
4.2 430.9/648 4944.8 36.8 13 59 271.4 3.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJustin Herbert's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:
  • Herbert threw for 5,014 yards and 38 TDs on a 65.9% completion rate and 7.5 yards per attempt last year.
  • He added 63 carries for 302 yards and 3 TDs.
  • Herbert finished 3rd among QBs in fantasy points, behind only Josh Allen and Tom Brady.
  • He finished as a top-5 fantasy QB in 8 of his 17 games. The only QB with more top-5 weeks was Tom Brady with 9.
  • Herbert ranked 6th among 31 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
  • He benefited from 672 pass attempts – 2nd most in the league.
    • But that was by design. The Chargers were a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense, ranking 6th in both situation-neutral pace and situation-neutral pass rate.
  • That followed a 15-game, 4,336-yard, 31-TD rookie campaign that saw Herbert finish 9th among QBs in fantasy points.
  • Herbert joins Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady as the only 5 QBs to rank top 10 in fantasy points in both of the last 2 seasons.
  • Herbert returns to the same offense this season under HC Brandon Staley and OC Joe Lombardi.
  • Six of last year’s 7 target-getters are back: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Josh Palmer, Jalen Guyton and Donald Parham.
  • The one departure was TE Jared Cook. He’ll be replaced by TE Gerald Everett, who’s 8 years younger than Cook and earned a better Pro Football Focus receiving grade last season.
  • The Chargers’s offensive line ranked 17th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and 5th in adjusted sack rate last year.
    • Four of 5 starters return: LT Rashawn Slater, LG Matt Feiler, C Corey Linsley and RT Storm Norton.
    • The 1 change will come at RG, where 1st-round rookie Zion Johnson is slated to replace Michael Schofield.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Herbert is 1 of the safest bets in 2022 fantasy drafts. He’s a 24-year-old former 6th overall pick who’s opened his career with QB9 and QB3 fantasy finishes. He’s back in the same offense this season under HC Brandon Staley and OC Joe Lombardi. And he returns the bulk of last year’s pass-catchers and offensive line.

Herbert should be 1 of the first few QBs off the board in fantasy drafts and is 1 of a handful of guys with the potential to lead the position in fantasy points.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Justin Herbert, QB LAC

10:13am EDT 6/2/22

Chargers benefitting from continuity

The Chargers return the same HC and OC from last season. Plus, 6 of last year's top 7 target-getters are back, with TE Gerald Everett replacing TE Jared Cook. “Everyone’s familiar with the terminology, so a lot less stress, at this time of the year anyway, because they’ve had a year to digest everything,” OC Joe Lombardi said. “Justin [Herbert]’s bandwidth is a lot wider for everything, so we can focus on some Football 202 type of stuff, rather than just getting in and out of the huddle. It’s real nice. First and foremost, it’s just familiarity with all of the play calls. Where last year at this time, it was just hearing the play, repeating it in the huddle and just kind of understanding what the play is — that was a lot of calories burnt last year. This year, he has that part down. He can focus on what the defense is doing a little bit more, get his timing down with the receivers and all of that.” The Chargers ranked top 6 in points, yards and yards per play last season and are a safe bet to be 1 of the top offenses in the league again in 2022.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

The Chargers on Wednesday placed WR Mike Williams on the COVID list. He, of course, joins teammate WR Keenan Allen, potentially leaving QB Justin Herbert down his top 2 wideouts for Sunday's game against the Giants. We'll keep an eye on the situations for both players. Jalen Guyton and Joshua Palmer look like the next 2 WRs up. RB Austin Ekeler, TE Jared Cook and even TE Donald Parham could all be in for more targets, though, if Williams and Allen both miss the game. On defense, the Chargers also placed CB Chris Harris Jr. on the COVID list. That might be more interesting for fantasy purposes if the Giants weren't down to their 3rd QB.

Update: HC Brandon Staley says Williams and Harris are on the list merely as close contacts. That means each player can make it back for Sunday's game as long as he continues to test negative.

View all Mike Williams Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert (hand) is not listed on the final injury report. He was limited on Wednesday but put in full practices on Thursday and Friday. It doesn’t seem like we should be worried about the hand issue.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert (right hand) was upgraded to full participation in Thursday's practice. We'll see what he does tomorrow and how he's listed on the final injury report, but it doesn't look like we need to worry about the hand issue.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert was limited in Wednesday's practice and listed on the injury report with a right hand injury. He appeared to injure the hand late in last week's loss to the Patriots. We've heard nothing to suggest that Herbert is in danger of missing this weekend's game vs. the Eagles, but check back tomorrow for another update.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Justin Herbert, QB LAC
Dynasty MVP 373.4
Position Rank #2 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
1,150
1,950
3,469
Dynasty Write-up
Herbert’s started his career with back to back 30+ TD seasons. We have no concerns over his ability, and Mike Williams signed a new deal that keeps him with the Chargers through 2024. Keenan Allen is also signed through 2024.
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