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Justin Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJustin Herbert's Basic Stats

Justin Herbert
ADP: 4.10
Bye: 5
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25.5
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 236
40 Time: 4.68
SPARQx (Rank): 99.50 (79%)
Burst Score (Rank): 123.60 (91%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.52 (47%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 55.00 (50%)

Justin Herbert's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
278.5 2.1 0.7 11.2 20.2
Weekly Writeup
The Chargers could lean back toward the run more after going pass-heavier against Tennessee. But we'd bet on plenty of volume to support Herbert and the pass offense against a Minnesota D that remains non-scary in all phases. This game carries the week's highest over/under (54 points), 6 points ahead of any other.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
297.8 2.3 0.7 13.8 22.6

Justin Herbert's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#5 Quarterback

342.4 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
4.10 417/627 4665.2 34.2 13.3 55 221 2.1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJustin Herbert's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Herbert dealt with injuries to WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, plus a flukily low TD rate last year.

He still finished as a top-12 QB, which feels like his ultimate floor in 2023.

The upside? A top-3 finish like he gave fantasy owners in 2021.

Allen, Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler are back. And the Chargers added first-round WR Quentin Johnston to give Herbert the most talented group of pass catchers of his career.

OC Kellen Moore should also be an upgrade over former OC Joe Lombardi.

Herbert is an obvious bounce-back candidate and a potential value pick among the elite fantasy QBs.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Herbert finished somewhere between QB8 and QB11 in total fantasy points last year, depending on your scoring system.
  • He scored 5-6 fewer fantasy points per game than he did in both 2020 and 2021.
  • The culprit: Herbert’s passing TD rate plummeted from 5.4% across his first two seasons to 3.6% in 2022. That ranked 21st among 33 qualifiers and was nearly a full percentage point below league average.
  • Herbert’s 25 passing TDs tied for eighth league wide.
  • He ranked second in pass attempts (699), completions (477), and passing yards (4,739).
  • Herbert’s rushing production also sank last year. He ran 54 times for 147 scoreless yards after averaging 59 carries, 268 yards, and 4 TDs over the previous two seasons. That’s 36.1 fewer rushing fantasy points – or the difference between finishing QB8 and QB5.
  • It’s likely that the fractured rib cartilage Herbert suffered in Week 2 played a part in the rushing dip.
  • It’s also worth noting that WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen missed a combined 11 games last year.
  • Herbert finished QB8 in fantasy points per game as a rookie in 2020 and then QB3 in 2021.
  • He ranks sixth among QBs in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons (behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson).

What to Expect in 2023
  • The Chargers return last year’s top-5 targets: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett.
  • They also spent the 21st overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Quentin Johnston, a 6’3, 208-pounder with impressive downfield and after-catch skills. This will likely end up being the most talented group of pass-catchers Herbert has played with.
  • The Chargers made a change at OC, canning Joe Lombardi and replacing him with Kellen Moore.
  • Like Lombardi, Moore is a pass-leaning play caller. Three of his four Cowboys offenses ranked top 10 in both pass attempts and yards.
  • The biggest change for Herbert under Moore figures to be more deep shots.
    • Herbert ranked 32nd among 35 qualifiers last year in average depth of throw (7.0 yards) and 26th in percentage of throws 20+ yards downfield (9.7%).
    • Dak Prescott’s average depth of throw in four seasons under Moore:
      • 9.8
      • 8.3
      • 8.2
      • 8.7
    • Prescott’s percentage of throws 20+ yards downfield:
      • 12.8%
      • 12.6%
      • 12.2%
      • 10.7%
  • Herbert will get LT Rashawn Slater back after he missed the final 14 games last season with a biceps tear. Slater was excellent as a rookie in 2021, ranking 13th among 67 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.
  • Herbert underwent surgery on Jan. 25 to repair the labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder. He had resumed throwing by May and should be a full-go for Week 1.

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Mike Williams, WR LAC

4 hours ago

Mike Williams done for season with torn ACL

Chargers WR Mike Williams has been diagnosed with a torn left ACL and will miss the rest of the 2023 season, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The timing of the injury at least gives Williams a good chance to be ready for the start of the 2024 campaign. He turns 29 in about a week and is officially signed with the Chargers for next season. But his contract currently carries a $32.5 million cap hit. Williams will need to restructure that deal to remain with the team. His absence for the rest of this season leaves behind big opportunity. Williams averaged 8.7 targets on a 21.3% share through three games. WR Josh Palmer is the better immediate bet for production with Williams out. But first-round rookie WR Quentin Johnston is the higher-upside longer-term bet. WR Keenan Allen, RB Austin Ekeler (once healthy), and TE Gerald Everett should also see a bit more volume without Williams.

View all Mike Williams Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert went 40 for 47 passing in Sunday's win over the Vikings, racking up 405 yards and 3 TDs. (WR Keenan Allen threw for the team's other TD.) L.A. dropped back on 75.8% of offensive plays, clearly committing to the pass from the start. Herbert had 30 pass attempts by halftime, vs. seven total run plays for the team in that time. Look for this team to continue leaning pass going forward, though likely not to the degree most weeks that it did against the Vikings.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert completed 27 passes on 41 attempts for 305 passing yards with 2 TD and no INTs in Week 2’s OT loss vs. the Titans. How the Chargers continue to find themselves in such close games on a consistent basis is beyond us. Fortunately, that’s more of a problem for real-life football. Even without RB Austin Ekeler (ankle), fantasy managers saw another 20+ point game from Herbert in what will likely be his second-straight top-12 finish. He'll look to continue his success next week vs. the Vikings.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert finished Week 1 with just 228 passing yards and 1 TD. A short-range toss to TE Donald Parham accounted for his only passing score. Herbert added a second score on a QB sneak, but there wasn’t much to speak of otherwise. Keenan Allen led the way with 6 grabs for 76 yards. Mike Williams — who left briefly for a concussion check — tallied just 45 yards on 4 catches. And Round 1 rookie Quentin Johnston mixed in for only 9 yards on 2 receptions. Overall, a slow start isn’t a total surprise given the presence of new OC Kellen Moore (plus a talented Miami defense). Keep expectations high for Sunday’s matchup at Tennessee.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Justin Herbert, QB LAC
Dynasty MVP 325.3
Position Rank #4 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
990
1,644
3,173
Dynasty Write-up
Herbert’s production dipped in 2022, but you can point to absences from WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The tape remained strong for Herbert, who received a massive extension this offseason. He also learned a new system (orchestrated by former Dallas OC Kellen Moore) following the firing of Joe Lombardi. As a bonus: Herbert was gifted Round 1 WR Quentin Johnston in the '23 draft.
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