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Justin Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Justin Herbert
LAC

QB LAC

#7 Quarterback

402 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 7
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 236
40 Time: 4.68

Weekly Outlook

Week 21 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 14
Herbert dominated the Giants to the tune of 275 yards and 3 TDs in the Week 14 rout. He completed 23 of his 31 pass attempts, finding 9 different receivers. Without go-to target WR Keenan Allen available, Herbert turned to WR Mike Williams and rookie WR Joshua Palmer to get the job done. The highlight of the game was his electric 59-yard bomb down the middle of the field to hit WR Jalen Guyton for a score.

Herbert showcased the entire skill set against the Giants. The big arm, smooth delivery and running ability once again has fantasy owners smiling. A Thursday rematch with the Chiefs isn’t as easy as the numbers might indicate, with Kansas City’s defense turning things around midseason. But we’d still bet on the Chargers QB in most cases.

A Week 16 trip to Houston looks nice, and then Herbert finishes with a Denver matchup that treated him fine in Week 12.
Week 13
Herbert put together one of his most impressive outings of 2021 in a huge win over Cincinnati. Completing 26 of 35 passes, Herbert notched 317 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. He hit Keenan Allen for a pair of short-range scores, including one on 4th down. Herbert made numerous off-platform throws — as usual — and continued to display his powerful arm on some downfield throws. He connected with Jalen Guyton on one such deep ball that saw the WR outmuscle S Jessie Bates. Herbert has now hit 26+ fantasy points in 3 straight. He should continue to roll against the Giants — just don’t expect New York to put up enough of a fight to make this a shootout.
Week 12
We can take this kind of down game from the 2nd-year QB.

Herbert endured 3 sacks in Sunday’s loss to Denver, just the 2nd time all season he has been sacked that much and 1st Week 8 against New England. Herbert also tossed a pair of INTs, his 1st 2-pick game since the New England matchup and 3rd such game of the year.

But the Chargers QB collected 303 yards and a pair of TDs on a high-volume passing day (most attempts since the opener). Herbert found Austin Ekeler for a 12-yard score late in the 2nd quarter and added a 16-yard TD to Jared Cook in the 4th. We’ll take those in any game situation.

It was Herbert’s 2nd straight 300+ yard outing and 3rd among the past 4 games. A neutral remaining schedule holds nothing scary.
Week 11
Herbert was effective throughout the game through the air and on the ground on Sunday Night Football against the Steelers. He entered the half going 16 out of 19 for 170 yards passing and 44 rush yards in the 1st half. Then he eclipsed both his passing and rushing totals in the 2nd half. The only real blemish on the night for Herbert was an INT that came on a tipped pass that gave the Steelers incredible field position late in the game. He finished the night with a late 4th quarter drive for the win. He ended up going 30 out of 41 for 382 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT, adding 9 rushes for 90 yards. Herbert has now thrown for over 355 yards in 2 of the Chargers last 3 games. He has thrown multiple TD passes in 6 of their last 8 games and is leading the Chargers on a path to the playoffs. We have Herbert ranked as our QB5 this week against the Broncos. The Broncos’ defense has held opposing QBs under 275 yards in each of their last 4 games. The next three games on the schedule for the Chargers are @DEN, @CIN, and NYG.
Week 10
After the coaching staff had Herbert throwing the ball regularly downfield early in the season, this was the 3rd time in the last 4 games when the passing attack was ultra conservative. As a result, Keenan Allen was the leading receiver with most of his catches coming underneath. Allen accounted for more than half of Herbert’s passing yardage. Since the game was close throughout, the Chargers’ coaches never had to get out of their comfort zone, which hurt Herbert’s fantasy performance. Fortunately, he was able to get 1 passing TD on a short pass to Austin Ekeler from inside the 5-yard line.

Although he’s been a bit up and down for fantasy, a couple bad matchups against the Ravens and Patriots accounted for most of his struggles. But his upside is excellent, as he has 4 games in which he’s thrown for at least 337 yards and multiple passing TDs in 5 of his last 6 games. His remaining schedule is a mixed bag, as he faces 3 teams in the top 8 against QBs, but he also faces 2 teams in the bottom 10.
Week 9
Herbert came out of the bye with a rebound game at Philly following 2 straight rough outings. After completing just 54% of passes at a mere 5.65 yards per attempt over consecutive losses to Baltimore and New England, Herbert completed 84% for 365 yards (9.37 YPA) and TDs to TEs Donald Parham and Stephen Anderson. Herbert just missed a 3rd TD on the Chargers’ opening drive, when tacklers stopped Keenan Allen short of the goal line on a 4th-and-goal.

Herbert added an 8-yard TD run and a 2-point conversion pass to produce the week’s 2nd-best fantasy score among QBs.

Herbert gets a neutral matchup with Minnesota in Week 10, but then negative matchups -- by adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs -- the following 2 weeks. His schedule looks fine beyond that.
Week 8
Herbert had a tough day vs. the Patriots as he only completed 51% of his passes for 223 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. This marks the second week in a row that Herbert and the pass game failed to meet expectation after a poor performance in Week 6 vs. the Ravens. Fantasy owners shouldn’t panic as even in poor matchups Herbert is still putting up top 15 numbers on the week.
This week the Chargers look to bounce back vs. an Eagles D that has held its own vs. QBs this season. The Eagles have been solid vs. QBs this season, allowing the 7th fewest points to the position. That being said, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Dereck Carr had QB1 games vs. the Eagles, so Herbert should be right back in your lineups for Week 9.
Week 6
Facing a Ravens defense that schemed up pressure and played physical with the WRs, Herbert had his worst game of the season. Aside from an early TD pass to Jared Cook against a defense that’s been porous against TEs, Herbert never got into any type of rhythm. And even when the team was trailing by double digits in the 2nd half, Baltimore kept the pressure on, and there was no garbage time to be had. It also didn’t help that Mike Williams was limited by knee swelling, limiting him to playing just 36% of the snaps.

After starting the season by throwing just a single TD in each of his 1st 2 games, Herbert has been incredible since. Since Week 2, he came into this game averaging almost 300 passing yards and 4 total TDs per game. Even though he’s maintained excellence on deep passes and in the red zone that may seem unsustainable, it’s more likely that he’s simply an elite QB who can perform like other elite fantasy QBs every week. Fantasy managers in single-QB leagues who drafted Herbert along with another higher-end QB should consider trading the other QB and commit to starting Herbert each week, regardless of opponent.
Week 5
If you were watching the Chargers vs. Browns game, the Cleveland secondary was in shambles. The Browns constantly left Mike Williams wide open, which led to multiple long TDs on the day. Still Justin Herbert is the truth and there is no denying that. Throwing for 398 yards and 4 TDs was better production than Patrick Mahomes’ 337 and 3 vs. the Browns in Week 1. Herbert with these weapons is a legit MVP candidate.
This week the Chargers take on the Ravens. The Ravens this season have allowed the 4th most passing yards to opposing QBs. Plus, with the Ravens offense looking like it found its stride, this game could be another high-scoring affair. This makes Herbert another candidate to be in your DFS lineups for Week 6.
Week 4
Herbert completed 25 of 38 passes for 222 yards and 3 TDs in the Chargers' Week 4 win over the Raiders on Monday night.
Herbert threw all 3 TD passes in the 1st half with 1 going to Austin Ekeler, Jared Cook and Donald Parham.
2 of his 3 TDs came on 3rd down as he threw laser TDs to each of the TEs. Herbert went 20 of 25 for 175 yards and all of his TDs in the 1st half before they elected to go extremely run heavy in the 2nd half.
Week 3
Herbert brought his 'A' game to Arrowhead, throwing for 281 yards and 4 TDs on a 68.4% completion rate. His arm strength and arm talent remained the headlines here. So too was his budding connection with Mike Williams, who posted 7-122-2 on 9 targets. Herbert hooked up with the big-play WR for 2 scores in the 4th quarter, both when he was isolated out wide. Dating back to 2020, Herbert has now hit 19 fantasy points in 7 straight outings. We’d be surprised if he doesn’t continue to roll in Week 4 against Vegas.
Week 2
Against Dallas, he completed 31 of 41 attempts for 338 yards for 1 TD. More important, he had 2 INTs, including a game-changing, back-breaking pick in the end zone. 4 carries for 12 yards. Herbert was trying to overcome 10 offensive penalties, including 2 that wiped out apparent TDs, that caused the Chargers’ offense to stop and re-start repeatedly. LA reached the red zone 4 times but converted those possessions into only 1 TD.
No doubt the No. 1 message around the Chargers’ headquarters this week will be eliminating the mistakes that led to a field full of flags. Herbert will be facing two top-10 teams against the pass, Kansas City and Cleveland, in the next 3 weeks.
Week 1
Facing a Washington team with an exceptional pass rush and solid secondary, Herbert was able to post excellent yardage totals despite Mike Williams dropping a pair of passes and Keenan Allen dropping another. In a low-scoring game, the fact that Austin Ekeler ran in a score kept Herbert to just a single passing TD. The Chargers also broke down in Washington territory twice, and the team had to settle for FGs. Despite attempting 47 passes, it was a surprise that a single target didn’t come Ekeler’s way.

If Week 1 is any indication, the Chargers’ new offensive system may involve heavy use of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, and maybe they won’t force Herbert to dump the ball off too often. It may also help that the upgraded OL can keep him clean, also allowing him to let downfield plays develop. So despite a tough Week 1 matchup, Herbert could continue taking a 2nd-year leap after a solid rookie season that saw him finish as the QB20 from Weeks 12-16.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Herbert took over as the Chargers’ starter in Week 2 last year and threw for 4,336 yards and 31 TDs over the final 15 games. He added a 55-234-5 rushing line.
  • He finished as a top 10 QB across fantasy scoring formats.
  • He scored the 2nd most fantasy points by a rookie QB in NFL history, behind only Cam Newton and right ahead of Robert Griffin, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray.
    • Murray averaged more fantasy points per game as a sophomore. Newton, Griffin and Prescott scored fewer but still ranked 5th, 13th and 15th, respectively, in points per game.
  • Herbert was a consistent producer last season, scoring at a top-12 level 9 times. That was tied for 3rd most with guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray.
  • And Herbert brought upside, scoring at a top-5 level in 5 games -- 5th most behind Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.
  • Herbert benefitted from a fast-paced, pass-leaning offense.
    • The Chargers ranked 11th in offensive pace, 1st in snaps and 16th in pass rate.
    • Herbert’s 595 pass attempts ranked 4th.
  • But he was also efficient. Among 30 QBs with 300+ attempts last year, Herbert ranked:
    • 12th in completion rate
    • 18th in yards per attempt
    • 15th in adjusted yards per attempt
    • 12th in QB Rating
    • 13th in Pro Football Focus passing grade
  • He ranked 11th among QBs in carries, 14th in rushing yards and 7th in TDs.
    • The TDs will likely regress in 2021 -- although Herbert did rank 4th among QBs with 7 carries inside the 5-yard line. Four of his 5 rushing scores came from inside the 5.
    • Herbert tested as a 79th percentile athlete at last year’s Combine, so he should continue to provide plus rushing production.
  • Four of last year’s top 5 target getters return for the Chargers: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Jalen Guyton.
    • Allen missed 2 games and was limited for most of 2 others last year.
    • Williams missed 1 game and was limited in 3 others.
    • Ekeler missed 6 games and was limited in 1.
  • The 1 departure was TE Hunter Henry, who ranked 2nd on the team with 93 targets in 14 games. The Chargers signed TE Jared Cook in free agency, drafted TE Tre’ McKitty in the 3rd round and return intriguing TE Donald Parham. Consider Henry’s departure a slight loss.
  • The Chargers drafted WR Josh Palmer, who could prove to be an upgrade at the #3 WR spot over Guyton and Tyron Johnson.
  • Herbert will be playing in a new offense under OC Joe Lombardi.
    • He served as Lions OC in 2014 and 2015, leading the team to 12th- and 9th-place finishes in passing yards. Matt Stafford finished 15th and 8th among QBs in fantasy points those years.
    • Lombardi also spent 12 years in New Orleans working under HC Sean Payton.
    • We’re expecting Lombardi to be an upgrade over the previous offense under HC Anthony Lynn and OC Shane Steichen.
  • The Chargers bolstered their offensive line this offseason, adding free-agent C Corey Linsley, free-agent G/OT Matt Feiler and 1st-round rookie OT Rashawn Slater.
    • Linsley has ranked 4th, 16th and 4th among Cs in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades the past 3 seasons.
    • Feiler has experience at both OT and G. He figures to play LG for the Chargers. He finished 19th among 63 qualifying Gs in PFF’s 2020 pass-blocking grades.
    • Slater was a 3-year starter -- 2 at RT, 1 at LT -- at Northwestern before opting out of the 2020 campaign. He’s a 6’4, 304-pounder with elite athleticism, projecting as an immediate upgrade over last year’s starting LT, Sam Tevi.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Herbert was brilliant last year, finishing as a top 10 fantasy QB and with the 2nd most fantasy points by a rookie QB all time. He did that despite missing WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams and RB Austin Ekeler for multiple games.

Those 3 weapons are back for 2021 -- and Herbert should get better play-calling from longtime Saints assistant Joe Lombardi and better offensive line play from a retooled unit.

It’s not hard to imagine Herbert having an even more productive sophomore season. He’s a safe bet for QB1 production with upside into the top 5.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert (hand) is not listed on the final injury report. He was limited on Wednesday but put in full practices on Thursday and Friday. It doesn’t seem like we should be worried about the hand issue.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert (right hand) was upgraded to full participation in Thursday's practice. We'll see what he does tomorrow and how he's listed on the final injury report, but it doesn't look like we need to worry about the hand issue.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert was limited in Wednesday's practice and listed on the injury report with a right hand injury. He appeared to injure the hand late in last week's loss to the Patriots. We've heard nothing to suggest that Herbert is in danger of missing this weekend's game vs. the Eagles, but check back tomorrow for another update.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert's right (throwing) hand was wrapped and iced after Sunday's win over the Chiefs, according to NFL Network's James Palmer. Herbert was able to play through the issue, and Palmer confirms that the post-game treatment was "most likely precaution." But this will be a situation to monitor this coming week.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers HC Brandon Staley said Thursday that QB Justin Herbert won't play at all in the preseason. That's not necessarily good or bad news. It does mean that we won't get to see him at all in the new offense until the regular season. We have Herbert below the top tier (or top 2?) in our QB rankings. With just 1 year behind him and a new coaching staff in place, there's more risk than we see in the QBs above him. But Herbert, of course, also showed us plenty of upside as a rookie.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

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