Justin Herbert Fantasy Overview

2025 Role & Results

QB9 Finish Proves Misleading

Herbert threw for 3,727 yards, 26 TDs, and 13 INTs across 16 games. He added a career-high 498 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.

That was good for QB9 in total fantasy points and QB8 in points per game, but the week-to-week ride was uneven:

• five top-5 finishes
• just one other top-12 week
• five games at QB20 or worse

Solid Efficiency

Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, Herbert ranked:

• Eighth in completion rate over expected
• 10th in adjusted completion rate
• 13th in TD rate
• 14th in yards per attempt
• 19th in fantasy points per dropback

Those marks look a lot like Herbert’s first five NFL seasons, which counts as a small win given the rough setup around him.

Chargers Crumble Around Herbert

Herbert faced a league-high 43.3% pressure rate and absorbed 54 sacks, second-most in the NFL.

The Chargers spent most of the season without both starting OTs, as Rashawn Slater missed the year and Joe Alt played just six games before ankle surgery. That helps explain their last-place finish in ESPN’s run-block win rate.

The backfield got hit, too. Round 1 rookie Omarion Hampton played only nine games, and Najee Harris lasted 15 carries before a season-ending Achilles’ tear.

L.A. still ranked third in total plays despite finishing 27th in pace and 30th in situation-neutral pace. The passing volume remained solid, with Herbert ranking 13th in attempts per game and the Chargers sitting seventh in pass rate.

Playing Through Pain

Herbert broke a bone in his left hand during a Week 13 matchup with Vegas that required surgery. He only missed time in Week 18, resting ahead of the Chargers’ wild card game.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

A Deep Pass Catching Group

The Chargers return six of their top seven target earners from 2025.

Keenan Allen is the lone exception, and at 34 his departure shouldn’t be a major loss. Among 56 WRs with 80+ targets last year, Allen ranked:

• 36th in yards per route run
• 38th in yards per game
• 52nd in yards after catch per reception
• 53rd in yards per catch

The Chargers should spread Allen’s targets across a deep, young pass-catching corps.

Ladd McConkey battled calf, biceps, foot, and ankle injuries during a down 2025, but he’s only 24 and just one year removed from a rookie season with 82 catches, 1,149 yards, and 2.38 yards per route run. Quentin Johnston remains volatile, but his six games of 70+ yards, team-high 8 receiving TDs, and fifth-year option pickup show the Chargers still believe in him.

Tre Harris brings potential for a Year 2 jump, despite only 324 yards as a rookie. He supplies good size (6’2, 205), high-level athleticism (9.18 Relative Athletic Score), and strong college efficiency (3.00 yards per route run). Round 4 rookie Brenen Thompson adds 4.26 speed and a deep threat (18.6 career yards per catch in college).

The Chargers also return TE Oronde Gadsden II, who went from a Round 5 rookie to finishing fourth on the team in catches, yards, and receiving TDs. David Njoku arrives as a veteran complement, but he missed 11 games over the past two seasons and got outplayed by Round 3 rookie Harold Fannin Jr. with Cleveland in 2025.

Charlie Kolar also joins the TE room after serving as a depth piece behind Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely in Baltimore. He should help as a blocker, with some untapped receiving ability still in play.

The O-line should improve if Slater (patellar) and Alt (ankle) stay healthy. L.A. also upgraded at C with Tyler Biadasz, who ranked 15th among 37 centers in PFF run-blocking grade last season, well ahead of retired 2025 starter Bradley Bozeman.

The guard spots are less settled, with Cole Strange, Trevor Penning, and rookie Round 2 pick Jake Slaughter battling for two spots.

McDaniel Supplies an Upgrade

Mike McDaniel enters an OC role after acting as Miami’s HC over the past four seasons.

His Miami track record doesn’t suggest a major shift from Herbert’s two years under Greg Roman:

McDaniel in Miami

Roman in Los Angeles

McDaniel’s offenses peaked with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa in 2023 and 2024. Miami finished fourth in passing yards and TDs in 2023, then climbed to first in yards and fourth in TDs in 2024. McDaniel coaxing that type of production from a QB less talented than Herbert strengthens Herbert’s 2026 case.

The quick game will be worth watching. McDaniel has stressed getting the ball out of Herbert’s hands in under 2.4 seconds to offset the pass rush, which fits his Miami track record with Tua. Per TruMedia, he averaged 7.8 yards per attempt on throws under 2.4 seconds in McDaniel’s offense, ranking second among qualifiers.

Paths to Ceiling

Herbert’s setup looks stronger this time, with a deeper group of weapons, an OC who helped a lesser QB reach QB1 territory, and an O-line that should rebound if it stays healthy.

Risk Factors

The biggest concern is still the O-line. Herbert has missed just five games since 2021, but he’s absorbed too many hits while playing through various injuries. If the Chargers can’t keep the O-line intact, Herbert’s weekly floor could remain frustrating.