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Justin Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Justin Herbert
LAC

QB LAC

#7 Quarterback

402 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 7
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 236
40 Time: 4.68

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

High Floor

20.7

DS Projection

25.2

Consensus

38 other sites
25

Low Ceiling

30.2

Rest of
Season

24.6

Week 6 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
302 2.2 0.7 14 25.2
Weekly Writeup
The red-hot Herbert gets a Ravens squad that ranks just 20th in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
286 2.1 0.8 15 24.6
Week 5
If you were watching the Chargers vs. Browns game, the Cleveland secondary was in shambles. The Browns constantly left Mike Williams wide open, which led to multiple long TDs on the day. Still Justin Herbert is the truth and there is no denying that. Throwing for 398 yards and 4 TDs was better production than Patrick Mahomes’ 337 and 3 vs. the Browns in Week 1. Herbert with these weapons is a legit MVP candidate.
This week the Chargers take on the Ravens. The Ravens this season have allowed the 4th most passing yards to opposing QBs. Plus, with the Ravens offense looking like it found its stride, this game could be another high-scoring affair. This makes Herbert another candidate to be in your DFS lineups for Week 6.
Week 4
Herbert completed 25 of 38 passes for 222 yards and 3 TDs in the Chargers' Week 4 win over the Raiders on Monday night.
Herbert threw all 3 TD passes in the 1st half with 1 going to Austin Ekeler, Jared Cook and Donald Parham.
2 of his 3 TDs came on 3rd down as he threw laser TDs to each of the TEs. Herbert went 20 of 25 for 175 yards and all of his TDs in the 1st half before they elected to go extremely run heavy in the 2nd half.
Week 3
Herbert brought his 'A' game to Arrowhead, throwing for 281 yards and 4 TDs on a 68.4% completion rate. His arm strength and arm talent remained the headlines here. So too was his budding connection with Mike Williams, who posted 7-122-2 on 9 targets. Herbert hooked up with the big-play WR for 2 scores in the 4th quarter, both when he was isolated out wide. Dating back to 2020, Herbert has now hit 19 fantasy points in 7 straight outings. We’d be surprised if he doesn’t continue to roll in Week 4 against Vegas.
Week 2
Against Dallas, he completed 31 of 41 attempts for 338 yards for 1 TD. More important, he had 2 INTs, including a game-changing, back-breaking pick in the end zone. 4 carries for 12 yards. Herbert was trying to overcome 10 offensive penalties, including 2 that wiped out apparent TDs, that caused the Chargers’ offense to stop and re-start repeatedly. LA reached the red zone 4 times but converted those possessions into only 1 TD.
No doubt the No. 1 message around the Chargers’ headquarters this week will be eliminating the mistakes that led to a field full of flags. Herbert will be facing two top-10 teams against the pass, Kansas City and Cleveland, in the next 3 weeks.
Week 1
Facing a Washington team with an exceptional pass rush and solid secondary, Herbert was able to post excellent yardage totals despite Mike Williams dropping a pair of passes and Keenan Allen dropping another. In a low-scoring game, the fact that Austin Ekeler ran in a score kept Herbert to just a single passing TD. The Chargers also broke down in Washington territory twice, and the team had to settle for FGs. Despite attempting 47 passes, it was a surprise that a single target didn’t come Ekeler’s way.

If Week 1 is any indication, the Chargers’ new offensive system may involve heavy use of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, and maybe they won’t force Herbert to dump the ball off too often. It may also help that the upgraded OL can keep him clean, also allowing him to let downfield plays develop. So despite a tough Week 1 matchup, Herbert could continue taking a 2nd-year leap after a solid rookie season that saw him finish as the QB20 from Weeks 12-16.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Herbert took over as the Chargers’ starter in Week 2 last year and threw for 4,336 yards and 31 TDs over the final 15 games. He added a 55-234-5 rushing line.
  • He finished as a top 10 QB across fantasy scoring formats.
  • He scored the 2nd most fantasy points by a rookie QB in NFL history, behind only Cam Newton and right ahead of Robert Griffin, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray.
    • Murray averaged more fantasy points per game as a sophomore. Newton, Griffin and Prescott scored fewer but still ranked 5th, 13th and 15th, respectively, in points per game.
  • Herbert was a consistent producer last season, scoring at a top-12 level 9 times. That was tied for 3rd most with guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray.
  • And Herbert brought upside, scoring at a top-5 level in 5 games -- 5th most behind Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.
  • Herbert benefitted from a fast-paced, pass-leaning offense.
    • The Chargers ranked 11th in offensive pace, 1st in snaps and 16th in pass rate.
    • Herbert’s 595 pass attempts ranked 4th.
  • But he was also efficient. Among 30 QBs with 300+ attempts last year, Herbert ranked:
    • 12th in completion rate
    • 18th in yards per attempt
    • 15th in adjusted yards per attempt
    • 12th in QB Rating
    • 13th in Pro Football Focus passing grade
  • He ranked 11th among QBs in carries, 14th in rushing yards and 7th in TDs.
    • The TDs will likely regress in 2021 -- although Herbert did rank 4th among QBs with 7 carries inside the 5-yard line. Four of his 5 rushing scores came from inside the 5.
    • Herbert tested as a 79th percentile athlete at last year’s Combine, so he should continue to provide plus rushing production.
  • Four of last year’s top 5 target getters return for the Chargers: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Jalen Guyton.
    • Allen missed 2 games and was limited for most of 2 others last year.
    • Williams missed 1 game and was limited in 3 others.
    • Ekeler missed 6 games and was limited in 1.
  • The 1 departure was TE Hunter Henry, who ranked 2nd on the team with 93 targets in 14 games. The Chargers signed TE Jared Cook in free agency, drafted TE Tre’ McKitty in the 3rd round and return intriguing TE Donald Parham. Consider Henry’s departure a slight loss.
  • The Chargers drafted WR Josh Palmer, who could prove to be an upgrade at the #3 WR spot over Guyton and Tyron Johnson.
  • Herbert will be playing in a new offense under OC Joe Lombardi.
    • He served as Lions OC in 2014 and 2015, leading the team to 12th- and 9th-place finishes in passing yards. Matt Stafford finished 15th and 8th among QBs in fantasy points those years.
    • Lombardi also spent 12 years in New Orleans working under HC Sean Payton.
    • We’re expecting Lombardi to be an upgrade over the previous offense under HC Anthony Lynn and OC Shane Steichen.
  • The Chargers bolstered their offensive line this offseason, adding free-agent C Corey Linsley, free-agent G/OT Matt Feiler and 1st-round rookie OT Rashawn Slater.
    • Linsley has ranked 4th, 16th and 4th among Cs in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades the past 3 seasons.
    • Feiler has experience at both OT and G. He figures to play LG for the Chargers. He finished 19th among 63 qualifying Gs in PFF’s 2020 pass-blocking grades.
    • Slater was a 3-year starter -- 2 at RT, 1 at LT -- at Northwestern before opting out of the 2020 campaign. He’s a 6’4, 304-pounder with elite athleticism, projecting as an immediate upgrade over last year’s starting LT, Sam Tevi.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Herbert was brilliant last year, finishing as a top 10 fantasy QB and with the 2nd most fantasy points by a rookie QB all time. He did that despite missing WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams and RB Austin Ekeler for multiple games.

Those 3 weapons are back for 2021 -- and Herbert should get better play-calling from longtime Saints assistant Joe Lombardi and better offensive line play from a retooled unit.

It’s not hard to imagine Herbert having an even more productive sophomore season. He’s a safe bet for QB1 production with upside into the top 5.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert's right (throwing) hand was wrapped and iced after Sunday's win over the Chiefs, according to NFL Network's James Palmer. Herbert was able to play through the issue, and Palmer confirms that the post-game treatment was "most likely precaution." But this will be a situation to monitor this coming week.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers HC Brandon Staley said Thursday that QB Justin Herbert won't play at all in the preseason. That's not necessarily good or bad news. It does mean that we won't get to see him at all in the new offense until the regular season. We have Herbert below the top tier (or top 2?) in our QB rankings. With just 1 year behind him and a new coaching staff in place, there's more risk than we see in the QBs above him. But Herbert, of course, also showed us plenty of upside as a rookie.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Joe Lombardi has been named Chargers OC. The 49-year-old and grandson of Vince Lombardi has had 2 stints with the Saints under Sean Payton, including the past 5 seasons as QB coach. In between, Lombardi spent 2 seasons as Lions OC in 2014 and 2015. Those teams both ranked in the bottom half of the league in total yards and points. The running games were anemic, headed by Ameer Abdullah, Joique Bell and Reggie Bush. But QB Matthew Stafford topped 4,200 yards both years with 54 total TDs. This seems like a solid hire for QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing game.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers HC Anthony Lynn named QB Justin Herbert his starter for the rest of the season. Lynn had been dancing around this decision, but the rookie has given him very little choice, completing 72% of his passes and averaging 8.7 yards per attempt through 3 starts. Herbert ranks 9th among QBs in fantasy points over that span and will be a viable spot starter the rest of the way. He has a string of favorable upcoming matchups against the Saints, Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars and Raiders.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert got the start in Sunday's game against the Chiefs. That was quick. QB Tyrod Taylor was uninspiring in the Week 1 win over the Bengals, so L.A. is going with its 1st-round rookie. We'll see how he fares today. Herbert has the weapons and rushing ability to be a fantasy factor this season.

Update: It's reportedly a chest injury that's keeping Taylor out of this game. We'll look for more details.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

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