Bottom Line

Herbert dealt with injuries to WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, plus a flukily low TD rate last year.

He still finished as a top-12 QB, which feels like his ultimate floor in 2023.

The upside? A top-3 finish like he gave fantasy owners in 2021.

Allen, Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler are back. And the Chargers added first-round WR Quentin Johnston to give Herbert the most talented group of pass catchers of his career.

OC Kellen Moore should also be an upgrade over former OC Joe Lombardi.

Herbert is an obvious bounce-back candidate and a potential value pick among the elite fantasy QBs.

What We Learned Last Year

• Herbert finished somewhere between QB8 and QB11 in total fantasy points last year, depending on your scoring system.
• He scored 5-6 fewer fantasy points per game than he did in both 2020 and 2021.
• The culprit: Herbert’s passing TD rate plummeted from 5.4% across his first two seasons to 3.6% in 2022. That ranked 21st among 33 qualifiers and was nearly a full percentage point below league average.
• Herbert’s 25 passing TDs tied for eighth league wide.
• He ranked second in pass attempts (699), completions (477), and passing yards (4,739).
• Herbert’s rushing production also sank last year. He ran 54 times for 147 scoreless yards after averaging 59 carries, 268 yards, and 4 TDs over the previous two seasons. That’s 36.1 fewer rushing fantasy points – or the difference between finishing QB8 and QB5.
• It’s likely that the fractured rib cartilage Herbert suffered in Week 2 played a part in the rushing dip.
• It’s also worth noting that WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen missed a combined 11 games last year.
• Herbert finished QB8 in fantasy points per game as a rookie in 2020 and then QB3 in 2021.
• He ranks sixth among QBs in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons (behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson).

What to Expect in 2023

• The Chargers return last year’s top-5 targets: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett.
• They also spent the 21st overall pick of this spring’s draft on WR Quentin Johnston, a 6’3, 208-pounder with impressive downfield and after-catch skills. This will likely end up being the most talented group of pass-catchers Herbert has played with.
• The Chargers made a change at OC, canning Joe Lombardi and replacing him with Kellen Moore.
• Like Lombardi, Moore is a pass-leaning play caller. Three of his four Cowboys offenses ranked top 10 in both pass attempts and yards.
• The biggest change for Herbert under Moore figures to be more deep shots.
  • Herbert ranked 32nd among 35 qualifiers last year in average depth of throw (7.0 yards) and 26th in percentage of throws 20+ yards downfield (9.7%).
  • Dak Prescott’s average depth of throw in four seasons under Moore:
    • 9.8
    • 8.3
    • 8.2
    • 8.7
  • Prescott’s percentage of throws 20+ yards downfield:
    • 12.8%
    • 12.6%
    • 12.2%
    • 10.7%
• Herbert will get LT Rashawn Slater back after he missed the final 14 games last season with a biceps tear. Slater was excellent as a rookie in 2021, ranking 13th among 67 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades.
• Herbert underwent surgery on Jan. 25 to repair the labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder. He had resumed throwing by May and should be a full-go for Week 1.