Justin Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Herbert threw for 5,014 yards and 38 TDs on a 65.9% completion rate and 7.5 yards per attempt last year.
• He added 63 carries for 302 yards and 3 TDs.
• Herbert finished 3rd among QBs in fantasy points, behind only Josh Allen and Tom Brady.
• He finished as a top-5 fantasy QB in 8 of his 17 games. The only QB with more top-5 weeks was Tom Brady with 9.
• Herbert ranked 6th among 31 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
• He benefited from 672 pass attempts – 2nd most in the league.
  • But that was by design. The Chargers were a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense, ranking 6th in both situation-neutral pace and situation-neutral pass rate.
• That followed a 15-game, 4,336-yard, 31-TD rookie campaign that saw Herbert finish 9th among QBs in fantasy points.
• Herbert joins Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady as the only 5 QBs to rank top 10 in fantasy points in both of the last 2 seasons.
• Herbert returns to the same offense this season under HC Brandon Staley and OC Joe Lombardi.
• Six of last year’s 7 target-getters are back: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Josh Palmer, Jalen Guyton and Donald Parham.
• The one departure was TE Jared Cook. He’ll be replaced by TE Gerald Everett, who’s 8 years younger than Cook and earned a better Pro Football Focus receiving grade last season.
• The Chargers’s offensive line ranked 17th in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades and 5th in adjusted sack rate last year.
  • Four of 5 starters return: LT Rashawn Slater, LG Matt Feiler, C Corey Linsley and RT Storm Norton.
  • The 1 change will come at RG, where 1st-round rookie Zion Johnson is slated to replace Michael Schofield.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Herbert is 1 of the safest bets in 2022 fantasy drafts. He’s a 24-year-old former 6th overall pick who’s opened his career with QB9 and QB3 fantasy finishes. He’s back in the same offense this season under HC Brandon Staley and OC Joe Lombardi. And he returns the bulk of last year’s pass-catchers and offensive line.

Herbert should be 1 of the first few QBs off the board in fantasy drafts and is 1 of a handful of guys with the potential to lead the position in fantasy points.