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Justin Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Justin Herbert
LAC

QB LAC

#7 Quarterback

403 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 7
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 236
40 Time: 4.68

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#7 Quarterback

403 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 414/627 4735 33 13 302

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

350.6

DS Projection

403

Consensus

38 other sites
78.5

High Ceiling

471.5

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Herbert took over as the Chargers’ starter in Week 2 last year and threw for 4,336 yards and 31 TDs over the final 15 games. He added a 55-234-5 rushing line.
  • He finished as a top 10 QB across fantasy scoring formats.
  • He scored the 2nd most fantasy points by a rookie QB in NFL history, behind only Cam Newton and right ahead of Robert Griffin, Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray.
    • Murray averaged more fantasy points per game as a sophomore. Newton, Griffin and Prescott scored fewer but still ranked 5th, 13th and 15th, respectively, in points per game.
  • Herbert was a consistent producer last season, scoring at a top-12 level 9 times. That was tied for 3rd most with guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray.
  • And Herbert brought upside, scoring at a top-5 level in 5 games -- 5th most behind Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson.
  • Herbert benefitted from a fast-paced, pass-leaning offense.
    • The Chargers ranked 11th in offensive pace, 1st in snaps and 16th in pass rate.
    • Herbert’s 595 pass attempts ranked 4th.
  • But he was also efficient. Among 30 QBs with 300+ attempts last year, Herbert ranked:
    • 12th in completion rate
    • 18th in yards per attempt
    • 15th in adjusted yards per attempt
    • 12th in QB Rating
    • 13th in Pro Football Focus passing grade
  • He ranked 11th among QBs in carries, 14th in rushing yards and 7th in TDs.
    • The TDs will likely regress in 2021 -- although Herbert did rank 4th among QBs with 7 carries inside the 5-yard line. Four of his 5 rushing scores came from inside the 5.
    • Herbert tested as a 79th percentile athlete at last year’s Combine, so he should continue to provide plus rushing production.
  • Four of last year’s top 5 target getters return for the Chargers: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Jalen Guyton.
    • Allen missed 2 games and was limited for most of 2 others last year.
    • Williams missed 1 game and was limited in 3 others.
    • Ekeler missed 6 games and was limited in 1.
  • The 1 departure was TE Hunter Henry, who ranked 2nd on the team with 93 targets in 14 games. The Chargers signed TE Jared Cook in free agency, drafted TE Tre’ McKitty in the 3rd round and return intriguing TE Donald Parham. Consider Henry’s departure a slight loss.
  • The Chargers drafted WR Josh Palmer, who could prove to be an upgrade at the #3 WR spot over Guyton and Tyron Johnson.
  • Herbert will be playing in a new offense under OC Joe Lombardi.
    • He served as Lions OC in 2014 and 2015, leading the team to 12th- and 9th-place finishes in passing yards. Matt Stafford finished 15th and 8th among QBs in fantasy points those years.
    • Lombardi also spent 12 years in New Orleans working under HC Sean Payton.
    • We’re expecting Lombardi to be an upgrade over the previous offense under HC Anthony Lynn and OC Shane Steichen.
  • The Chargers bolstered their offensive line this offseason, adding free-agent C Corey Linsley, free-agent G/OT Matt Feiler and 1st-round rookie OT Rashawn Slater.
    • Linsley has ranked 4th, 16th and 4th among Cs in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grades the past 3 seasons.
    • Feiler has experience at both OT and G. He figures to play LG for the Chargers. He finished 19th among 63 qualifying Gs in PFF’s 2020 pass-blocking grades.
    • Slater was a 3-year starter -- 2 at RT, 1 at LT -- at Northwestern before opting out of the 2020 campaign. He’s a 6’4, 304-pounder with elite athleticism, projecting as an immediate upgrade over last year’s starting LT, Sam Tevi.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Herbert was brilliant last year, finishing as a top 10 fantasy QB and with the 2nd most fantasy points by a rookie QB all time. He did that despite missing WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams and RB Austin Ekeler for multiple games.

Those 3 weapons are back for 2021 -- and Herbert should get better play-calling from longtime Saints assistant Joe Lombardi and better offensive line play from a retooled unit.

It’s not hard to imagine Herbert having an even more productive sophomore season. He’s a safe bet for QB1 production with upside into the top 5.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Joe Lombardi has been named Chargers OC. The 49-year-old and grandson of Vince Lombardi has had 2 stints with the Saints under Sean Payton, including the past 5 seasons as QB coach. In between, Lombardi spent 2 seasons as Lions OC in 2014 and 2015. Those teams both ranked in the bottom half of the league in total yards and points. The running games were anemic, headed by Ameer Abdullah, Joique Bell and Reggie Bush. But QB Matthew Stafford topped 4,200 yards both years with 54 total TDs. This seems like a solid hire for QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing game.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers HC Anthony Lynn named QB Justin Herbert his starter for the rest of the season. Lynn had been dancing around this decision, but the rookie has given him very little choice, completing 72% of his passes and averaging 8.7 yards per attempt through 3 starts. Herbert ranks 9th among QBs in fantasy points over that span and will be a viable spot starter the rest of the way. He has a string of favorable upcoming matchups against the Saints, Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars and Raiders.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

Chargers QB Justin Herbert got the start in Sunday's game against the Chiefs. That was quick. QB Tyrod Taylor was uninspiring in the Week 1 win over the Bengals, so L.A. is going with its 1st-round rookie. We'll see how he fares today. Herbert has the weapons and rushing ability to be a fantasy factor this season.

Update: It's reportedly a chest injury that's keeping Taylor out of this game. We'll look for more details.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

The Chargers selected Oregon QB Justin Herbert with the 6th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. Herbert made 42 starts across the past 4 years, leaving the Ducks with a career 64% completion rate, 8.2 yards per attempt and 95 TDs vs. 23 INTs. After a disappointing 2018 campaign, he bounced back to chuck for 3,471 yards with 32 TDs vs. 6 INTs on a 67% completion rate and 8.1 yards per attempt this past year. Herbert’s accuracy is spotty, but he’s a 6’6, 235-pounder with a big arm. And his rushing upside makes him an intriguing fantasy prospect. Although he totaled just 216 yards and 6 scores on the ground over the past 2 seasons, Herbert ran a 4.68-second 40-yard dash at the Combine and earned a 92nd percentile SPARQ (athleticism) score. He could produce Josh Allen-like rushing numbers as a pro. Herbert joins Tyrod Taylor in the Chargers’ QB room. HC Anthony Lynn is a big Tyrod fan, but we’d expect Herbert to take over at some point this season.

View all Justin Herbert Shark Bites »

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