Justin Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

The Chargers traded up in Round 2 of the NFL Draft to select Georgia WR Ladd McConkey 34th overall. McConkey’s raw college production doesn’t jump off the page. He never reached 60 catches or 800 yards in a season. But he played in a run-leaning Georgia offense and had to battle TE Brock Bowers (among others) for targets. McConkey was super efficient, leaving school with career 75.3% catch rate and 2.54 yards per route. His career-best 3.26 yards per route last year ranked eighth among 409 WRs with 35+ targets. McConkey is devastatingly quick and a polished route runner, making him one of the best separators in this WR class. And he’s a weapon after the catch, with a career 0.25 missed tackles forced per catch – a better rate than guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze. McConkey boosted his stock at the Combine with a 4.39-second 40 time and 9.34 Relative Athletic Score. The 6’0, 186-pounder can play both outside and in the slot. He might not big a big-play producer or high-TD-rate receiver at the next level, but McConkey has the potential to rack up a bunch of receptions. Going to the Chargers presents immediate opportunity. The WR corps shed Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this offseason, leaving Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston as the top returning players. The landing spot helps McConkey's fantasy outlook. Check out our rookie rankings to see where he lands.

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The Chargers are trading WR Keenan Allen to the Bears for a fourth-round pick. That low price clearly comes because of Allen's contract. He carries a $34.7 million cap number, according to Over The Cap. Of course, we don't care about that for fantasy. Allen remained highly productive last season, finishing third among WRs in PPR points per game -- before missing the final four contests. He'll compete with D.J. Moore for the target lead in Chicago, where we're all awaiting confirmation that Caleb Williams will take over at QB. Whoever pilots the Bears offense will have a nice crew of pass-catchers, including new RB D'Andre Swift. Allen's ceiling comes down with the target competition and offense that's almost certain to be less pass-leaning than the Chargers of the past few years. Moore also takes hits to both his floor and ceiling. L.A., meanwhile, has to be a strong candidate to draft a WR fifth overall after dumping both Allen and Mike Williams. Josh Palmer is the top incumbent and looks like a better bet to seize opportunity than Quentin Johnston, who stunk as a 2023 rookie. We'll see how the situation sorts out, but losing Allen obviously hurts QB Justin Herbert. And it further fuels the expectation that the offense will lean much more toward the run under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. That obviously hurts Herbert's 2024 fantasy outlook. We still believe in the QB's talent, though. So it might be a good time to check Herbert's trade price in dynasty. The whole market has already been down on him this offseason. Check our dynasty rankings to see how these moves affect the players involved.

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The Chargers are releasing WR Mike Williams, according to multiple reports. It makes sense. Dumping Williams saves the team $20 million against the 2024 salary cap, which they sat about $25 million over before this move. It doesn't help Williams that he's coming off a September ACL tear. That could delay his signing with a new team -- or perhaps lead the 29-year-old to take a one-year "prove it" deal somewhere. We'll be watching the next step for Williams, who has scored on 10% of his career receptions and regularly ranked among league leaders in end-zone targets. The Chargers now sport Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and Quentin Johnston as their top three WRs, in an offense that figures to run the ball quite a bit more than it has since 2013. Those Chargers ran on 45.8% of offensive plays. The 10 versions since have reached 40% in run rate just twice and never exceeded 42.2%. Check our WR rankings for updates on Williams and the rest of the affected wideouts.

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New Chargers OC Greg Roman told reporters recently that he wants a "balanced" offense. "We want to be able to run it when we want to run it and throw it when we want to throw it," Roman added. "If they present looks that are favorable to run it, then we want to be able to run it at a high level. Every place I’ve been, that’s kind of been the goal, to try to have that complete attack." That jibes with HC John Harbaugh saying at his introductory press conference that he wants to "beef up the run game." Both Harbaugh and Roman have extensive histories of run-leaning offenses. That'd be a big shift for the Chargers, who ranked top-5 in pass attempts in each of QB Justin Herbert's first four seasons. It wouldn't make sense for Roman to deploy a super run-heavy offense with a QB as talented as Herbert. But we're certainly expecting the Chargers to throw less this coming season than they have the last four. Herbert and his pass catchers will need to make up for the loss in volume with improved efficiency.

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