Justin Herbert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Herbert faces a ton of change in 2024. And it doesn’t look like good change.

A run-loving coaching staff led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman replaces pass-heavy Brandon Staley. WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler are gone. And no sure things were added to the pass-catching corps.

Herbert is talented enough to produce in spite of these challenges. But you shouldn’t go into the season counting on him as an every-week QB1.

What We Learned Last Year

• Herbert’s 2023 season ended in Week 14 with a fractured right index finger. He underwent surgery in mid-December.
• Herbert’s fantasy-scoring average in his 12 healthy games ranked seventh among QBs.
• He scored as a top-8 QB in seven of those 12 games. He finished outside the top-12 in the other five.
• Herbert averaged 253.2 passing yards across his 12 healthy games. That was a career low but still ranked 10th among 29 qualifying QBs.
• Herbert averaged a career-high 19.0 rushing yards per game last year. He averaged 15.6 and 17.8 rushing yards per game in his first two seasons before sinking to 8.6 per game in 2022. He played through a rib injury for much of that year.
• Herbert’s 83.1 Pro Football Focus passing grade last season was the second-best mark of his career. It ranked 10th among 30 qualifiers.
• Herbert’s finishes among QBs in fantasy points per game in his first three NFL seasons:
  • 2020 - 8th
  • 2021 - 3rd
  • 2022 - 14th

What to Expect in 2024

• Herbert will be operating a brand new offense this season after the Chargers fired HC Brandon Staley and OC Kellen Moore. They’ll be replaced by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, who both have run-leaning backgrounds.
• Harbaugh and Roman spent four seasons together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in pass attempts and pass rate:
  • 2011 - 31st, 30th
  • 2012 - 31st, 30th
  • 2013 - 32nd, 31st
  • 2014 - 29th, 27th
• It’s worth noting that dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick started half of the 2012 season and all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That certainly skewed the 49ers toward the run.
• But Harbaugh was also a run-heavy play caller at Michigan over the past nine years. Eight of those nine teams finished with more carries per game than pass attempts. The average: 39.2 carries vs. 28.8 passes.
• Harbaugh even leaned on the run with QB Andrew Luck at Stanford.
  • 2009 - 24.1 passes per game vs. 41.2 runs
  • 2010 - 29.2 passes per game vs. 41.2 runs
• Roman has a similar history. On top of his four seasons with Harbaugh in San Francisco, he’s spent six more seasons as an OC, two in Buffalo and four in Baltimore. None of those offenses ranked higher in pass attempts than runs.
• This will likely be a big shift in philosophy for the Chargers, who were a pass-heavy offense the last four seasons. Their ranks in pass attempts and pass rate:
  • 2020 - 5th, 16th
  • 2021 - 3rd, 3rd
  • 2022 - 2nd, 2nd
  • 2023 - 3rd, 7th
• The Chargers also figure to run fewer plays this season. They ranked first in offensive snaps over the last four years. The 49ers ranked 31st in offensive snaps over the four seasons under Roman and Harbaugh.
• Add it all up and Herbert is a virtual lock for significantly fewer pass attempts this season – after ranking top four in that category in each of his first three seasons and eighth in pass attempts per game last year.
• Herbert will also be working with a much different pass-catching corps this year.
  • Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who have been Herbert’s top two WRs since he arrived, are gone.
  • So is RB Austin Ekeler, who averaged 6.3 targets and 4.9 catches per game over the last four years.
  • TE Gerald Everett, who ranked fifth and third on the team in targets the last two years, is also gone.
  • The Chargers added second-round rookie Ladd McConkey and free-agent D.J. Chark to the WR corps. They join holdovers Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer.
  • TE Donald Parham returns, alongside free-agent signings Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst.
  • The RB room is brand new: Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and Kimani Vidal.
  • Overall, this looks like a significantly worse group than Herbert has had over his first four seasons.