Bottom Line

Assuming Johnson doesn’t catch zero TDs again in 2023, he should bounce back to form and be the No. 1 WR in this run-heavy Steelers offense.

He’s been the team leader in targets in each of the last three seasons and will provide fantasy managers with a safe weekly floor.

What We Learned Last Year

• Johnson entered the 2022 season fresh off a WR8 overall finish in PRR and a two-year, $36.71 million contract extension.
• Unfortunately, the former third-round pick took a step back in 2022, finishing as the WR28 overall in PPR with a meager 10.6 points per game.
• Many of his fantasy woes were due to the simple fact that he didn’t catch a single TD.
• Johnson only managed four weekly finishes as a WR3 or better in PPR last year.
• Among 30 WRs who received 100+ targets in 2022, Johnson ranked 26th in PFF receiving grade.
• But to Johnson’s credit, his lack of success wasn’t all on him. QBs Mitchell Trubisky and Kenny Pickett didn’t exactly help. Johnson ranked dead last in passer rating when targeted (61.2) among WRs who saw 100+ targets last year.
• Still, Johnson led the Steelers in targets (147), target share (26.8%), and receptions (85).
• Despite the end zone woes, he recorded a historically strong zero-TD season. Among NFL WRs in the Super Bowl era who caught nary a receiving TD in a season, Johnson’s 2022 campaign ranks first in PPR points (180.7) and targets (147), third in receiving yards (882), and sixth in PPR points per game (10.63).

What to Expect in 2023

• Johnson is an obvious positive regression candidate that should probably catch a few TDs in 2023 and still be the top dog in the Steelers’ passing game.
• The wrinkle in his outlook is that the Steelers ranked 27th in pass rate following their bye week last year, and that’s when the offense saw its greatest success.
• If OC Matt Canada sticks with that plan, Johnson’s target volume may dip and lower his overall fantasy ceiling.
• On top of that, Johnson’s value will be somewhat at the mercy of the development of QB Kenny Pickett. If he can make greater strides in his development, Johnson should be a fine high-floor WR3/flex option in 2023 with room for WR2 upside.