Diontae Johnson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Johnson made a lateral move being traded to the Panthers, but he became the de facto top WR for the team.

Unfortunately, the Panthers’ offense is not expected to be good enough to support a strong PPR WR, even if Johnson is playing the Chris Godwin role in the new offense.

He is being drafted as a low-end WR3 or high-end WR4, and we have him similarly ranked due to his lack of a high ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year

• On the Steelers last year, Johnson finished with 51 catches for 717 yards and five TDs on 82 targets in 13 games.
• His per-game averages were generally a slight downgrade from his career averages:
  • 6.69 targets (8.30)
  • 3.92 receptions (5.08)
  • 55.2 yards (56.7)
  • 0.38 TDs (0.32)
• Johnson ranked as the PPR WR47 in total fantasy points (133.8) and WR40 in points per game (7.2).
• He missed four games last year (Weeks 2-5) with a right hamstring injury. It was the first time in his career that he had missed consecutive games.
• He had one top-12 finish. He also had five WR25 or worse finishes.
• Johnson’s target share (23.4%) was his lowest since 2020.
• Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Johnson ranked 23rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 29th in yards per route run (1.90).
• Among those same WRs, he was 26th in average targeted air yards (12.5) and 28th in percentage of team air yards (29.82%).

What to Expect in 2024

• Johnson will play under HC Dave Canales, who will be calling plays for the Panthers offense.
  • Canales was the OC for the Buccaneers last season.
  • Under Canales, the Buccaneers ranked 19th in the NFL with 568 passes.
• The Panthers are expected to take a step forward this year after only winning two games last season. They are fourth in the NFC South and 31st in the league with a 5.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Panthers have the worst odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl at +25000 on most sportsbooks.
• Johnson enters his sixth season at 28 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Johnson’s career produces at 96% of his peak value at age-28.