Evan Engram - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Engram had a resurgence last season due to strong volume. He’s still a great route runner with solid hands who became the de facto top target for the team.

The additions of Gabriel Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. figure to mean at least a slight dip in targets this season.

But Engram still looks like a reliable week-to-week TE1.

What We Learned Last Year

• Engram’s per-game receiving statistics in 2023 were among the best of his career:
  • 8.41 targets
  • 6.71 receptions
  • 56.6 yards
  • 8.4 yards per catch
  • 0.24 TDs per game
• Engram ranked as the PPR TE2 in total fantasy points and TE4 in points per game.
• He missed no games due to injury. He hasn’t missed a game across two seasons with the Jaguars.
• Engram had six top-12 finishes. He only had two TE25 or worse finishes.
• His target share of 23.2% ranked second among TEs.
• Among 33 TEs with 40+ targets, Engram ranked:
  • 9th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 31st in average target depth (5.0 yards)
  • 1st in slot targets (85)

What to Expect in 2024

• Engram will enter his third season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
• The Jags lost WR Calvin Ridley in free agency but added first-round rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. and free-agent WR Gabe Davis. They’ll also hope to get a healthier year from WR Christian Kirk, who missed the final five games of last season.
• Engram averaged 10.4 targets over those final five games vs. 7.6 over the first 12 games with Kirk.
• The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second highest in the division.
• Engram enters his eighth season at 30 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average TE with Engram’s career and profile will produce at 80% of his peak value at age-30.