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Hayden Hurst - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsHayden Hurst's Basic Stats

Hayden Hurst
ADP: 19.6
Bye: 7
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 30.1
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 250
40 Time: 4.67
Speed Score: 105.90
SPARQx (Rank): 101.50 (34%)
Burst Score (Rank): 115.10 (42%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.56 (50%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 9.97 (45%)

Hayden Hurst's Weekly Outlook

Week 5 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.2 19.5 0.2 3.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.7 26.1 0.2 3.9

Hayden Hurst's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#29 Tight End

62.8 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
19.6 43.1 418.2 3.5 0.6 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsHayden Hurst's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Hurst isn’t exciting, but he doesn’t need to be. Carolina paid him like a key offensive piece in free agency, and he joins an iffy set of pass catchers.

On top of that, early ADP finds Hurst going very late. You can draft him as a TE2 and find someone with a path to rank at least among his team’s top 2 in targets.

Although we project Hurst in the middle of TE2 range, it wouldn’t be shocking if he flirted with a top-12 finish in PPR.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Hurst set a career high with 4.0 receptions per game in his lone season with the Bengals.
  • His 31.8 yards per game fell short of his 2020 high, thanks primarily to a career-low 8.0 yards per catch. That ranked 31st among 32 TEs with 30+ targets last year, beating only Cleveland’s Harrison Bryant.
  • Hurst also ranked second-to-last in that group in average depth of target (5.3) and tied for just 24th in yards after catch per reception. That’s particularly disappointing for a guy who entered the league with a 78th-percentile 40 time among TEs.
  • His yards per route checked in 28th. His Pro Football Focus receiving grade a better 17th.
  • Hurst also ranked 17th in passer rating on balls thrown his way, despite playing with Joe Burrow – PFF’s leader in passing grade.
  • He ranked 18th among TEs in target share and finished 18th in PPR points per game.
What to Expect in 2023
  • The Panthers gave Hurst the biggest TE contract in free agency: $21.75 million over three years. That $7.25 million annual average ranks 17th at the position for 2023.
  • Hurst said his season in Cincinnati marked the first time a team “let me be me.” He did enter the league in the same Ravens draft class as Mark Andrews, whom Hurst immediately fell behind. (An August injury that delayed the start of Hurst’s rookie season didn’t help.) And then Kyle Pitts arrived in Hurst’s second Atlanta season. In between, he set a career high with 35.7 receiving yards per game in 2020.
  • Hurst says he’s looking to be the “best friend” on the field for rookie QB Bryce Young, providing a reliable option within 10 yards of the line and down the seam. His contract says the Panthers envision the same.
  • Hurst’s competition for targets includes:
    • 33-year-old WR Adam Thielen
    • WR D.J. Chark, on just $5 million, one-year deal
    • Round 2 rookie WR Jonathan Mingo
    • WR Terrace Marshall and his 45 total receptions through two pro seasons

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Hayden Hurst, TE CAR

5:12pm EDT 10/1/23

Hayden Hurst's role in trouble?

Panthers TE Hayden Hurst played a season-low 51.4% of snaps in Sunday's loss to the Vikings. It was his third game of 55% or less through four weeks, marking a downturn vs. his season high 61% in Week 4. Hurst did run a route on 65% of QB Bryce Young's dropbacks, in line with his passing-game involvement the previous three games. But fellow TE Tommy Tremble played a season-high 43.1% of snaps, including a season-high route rate. TE Ian Thomas also set season highs in playing time and pass routes. Hurst remained the lead receiving option among Carolina TEs, but he's not getting used at a high enough level to start in fantasy outside of deep leagues. He's even droppable in many spots.

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Panthers QB Bryce Young (ankle) put in a full week of practice and isn't listed on the final injury report. He'll be back under center for Sunday's game vs. the Vikings. Young has mustered just 4.2 yards per attempt so far this season and is just a low-end QB2 for Week 4, despite the plus matchup. Consider Young a slight downgrade from QB Andy Dalton for Carolina's pass catchers.

View all Bryce Young Shark Bites »

Panthers QB Bryce Young (ankle) is not expected to play vs. the Seahawks this weekend, the team announced. That'll leave QB Andy Dalton under center, which might actually be an upgrade at this point. Young has struggled mightily so far, completing 59% of his passes and averaging 4.2 yards per attempt. Dalton played well for New Orleans last year, finishing with a 67% completion rate and 7.6 yards per attempt. Hopefully you're not relying too much on this passing game in fantasy lineups, but WR Adam Thielen and TE Hayden Hurst remain fine lower-end plays.

View all Bryce Young Shark Bites »

Panthers TE Hayden Hurst parlayed 7 targets into 5 catches, 41 yards, and 1 TD in Sunday’s loss to Atlanta. A banged-up Carolina WR corps certainly helped shuffle targets to the TE. But recall that he signed a deal with $13 million in guarantees this past offseason. We look for him to continue posting low-end starter lines in the future — especially if the TE position continues to underproduce. Hurst will remain on the streaming radar for a Monday night tilt with New Orleans.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Hayden Hurst, TE CAR
Dynasty MVP 29.2
Position Rank #61 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
99
154
240
Dynasty Write-up
Hurst became a TE1 streamer as a 2022 Bengal. In March, he inked a 3-year deal with Carolina that includes $13 million guaranteed. (The contract makes it easy for the Panthers to get out after the 2024 season.)
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