Bottom Line

Hurst isn’t exciting, but he doesn’t need to be. Carolina paid him like a key offensive piece in free agency, and he joins an iffy set of pass catchers.

On top of that, early ADP finds Hurst going very late. You can draft him as a TE2 and find someone with a path to rank at least among his team’s top 2 in targets.

Although we project Hurst in the middle of TE2 range, it wouldn’t be shocking if he flirted with a top-12 finish in PPR.

What We Learned Last Year

• Hurst set a career high with 4.0 receptions per game in his lone season with the Bengals.
• His 31.8 yards per game fell short of his 2020 high, thanks primarily to a career-low 8.0 yards per catch. That ranked 31st among 32 TEs with 30+ targets last year, beating only Cleveland’s Harrison Bryant.
• Hurst also ranked second-to-last in that group in average depth of target (5.3) and tied for just 24th in yards after catch per reception. That’s particularly disappointing for a guy who entered the league with a 78th-percentile 40 time among TEs.
• His yards per route checked in 28th. His Pro Football Focus receiving grade a better 17th.
• Hurst also ranked 17th in passer rating on balls thrown his way, despite playing with Joe Burrow – PFF’s leader in passing grade.
• He ranked 18th among TEs in target share and finished 18th in PPR points per game.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Panthers gave Hurst the biggest TE contract in free agency: $21.75 million over three years. That $7.25 million annual average ranks 17th at the position for 2023.
• Hurst said his season in Cincinnati marked the first time a team “let me be me.” He did enter the league in the same Ravens draft class as Mark Andrews, whom Hurst immediately fell behind. (An August injury that delayed the start of Hurst’s rookie season didn’t help.) And then Kyle Pitts arrived in Hurst’s second Atlanta season. In between, he set a career high with 35.7 receiving yards per game in 2020.
• Hurst says he’s looking to be the “best friend” on the field for rookie QB Bryce Young, providing a reliable option within 10 yards of the line and down the seam. His contract says the Panthers envision the same.
• Hurst’s competition for targets includes:
  • 33-year-old WR Adam Thielen
  • WR D.J. Chark, on just $5 million, one-year deal
  • Round 2 rookie WR Jonathan Mingo
  • WR Terrace Marshall and his 45 total receptions through two pro seasons