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Hayden Hurst - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Hayden Hurst
ATL

TE ATL

#30 Tight End

57 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 6
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 27
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 250
40 Time: 4.67

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#30 Tight End

57 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 37 395 3 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

46.7

DS Projection

57

Consensus

38 other sites
95.1

High Ceiling

85.5

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

-Volume propelled Hurst to a TE9 finish last season. He ran the 4th most routes among TEs and averaged nearly 5.5 targets per game.

-This came in a season that saw only 9 appearances from Julio Jones.

-Hurst filled a short-range role (7.6-yard average depth of target) and wasn’t much of a big-play threat with only 10.2 YPC.

-Among 26 TEs with 50+ targets, Hurst ranked 23rd in yards per route run (1.08, a career low).

-4 of his 6 TDs surfaced in the red zone. He tallied only 5 fewer red zone looks than Calvin Ridley (15 vs. 20).

-2021 brings a significant change, most notably with the arrival of top pick Kyle Pitts. A generational player on tape, Pitts will command a sizable target share right away.

-Julio Jones was traded to the Titans in June. Last year, he was on pace for 121 targets.

-Losing Jones theoretically allows Pitts to play more of a “big slot” role and potentially add in-line snaps to Hurst’s plate. Last year, the former Raven played 43.4% of his snaps in-line.

-Hurst, though, was among the league’s worst graded run and pass-blocking TEs (via Pro Football Focus). Atlanta did add pure blocking TE Lee Smith in free agency.

-New HC Arthur Smith, a former TE coach and the Titans OC last year, used 2-TE sets on a league-high 35% of the team’s snaps last year.

-Don’t count out Hurst as at least a potential streamer in FFPC formats. As Titans OC last year, Smith’s TEs combined for a massive 29.4% target share.

-Look for the Falcons’ pass volume to come down, though. They just ranked 1st league-wide in raw attempts (684) and pass rate (65.4%).

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

A favorable environment helped Hurst post career highs in 2020.

2021, though, looks like a year for sharp regression. Kyle Pitts is a clear upgrade, and even at 20, he projects as an immediate contributor. The Julio Jones trade helps Hurst, but the latter will still need some good fortune to have a legit shot at cracking TE2 range.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Hayden Hurst (ankle) is active for today’s game vs. the Raiders. He only got in a limited practice on Friday, so he obviously won't be at 100%. But Hurst might get a target boost with WR Julio Jones out.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Hayden Hurst (ankle) is expected to play Sunday against the Raiders, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Hurst managed only a limited Friday practice after sitting out the previous 2 days, so he'll present some risk even if active. Las Vegas also rates 9th in TE coverage, according to Football Outsiders. We'll confirm Hurst's status when the early-game inactives come out.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Hayden Hurst (ankle) is questionable for this weekend's game vs. the Raiders. He only got in a limited practice on Friday, so he obviously won't be at 100% if he suits up. We'll get Hurst's game status by noon ET on Sunday.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Hayden Hurst has missed the first 2 practices of the week with an ankle issue. We don't have any other details, but his availability for Sunday's game against the Raiders appears to be in doubt. Check back tomorrow for another update.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Hayden Hurst told ESPN's Mina Kimes that he's been making the 5-hour drive from Jacksonville to Atlanta to catch passes from QB Matt Ryan for the past 4 weeks. "That’s helping me a lot," Hurst said. "That’s really going to pay off during training camp." Acquired from the Ravens in March, Hurst hasn't been able to get any official workouts in with his new team due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But any chemistry he can build with his QB is good news for his 2020 fantasy outlook. Hurst as TE1 upside this season as he replaces Austin Hooper, who averaged 6.4 targets per game over the last 2 seasons.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

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