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Hayden Hurst - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Hayden Hurst
ATL

TE ATL

#28 Tight End

65 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 6
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 28
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 250
40 Time: 4.67

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

1.7

DS Projection

3.7

Consensus

38 other sites
3

High Ceiling

6.1

Rest of
Season

3.7

Week 8 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.7 25 0.2 3.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.4 19.1 0.3 3.7
Week 5
Hurst caught 4 balls for 40 yards and a score in the Week 5 victory over the Jets. His TD in the 2nd quarter put the score at 17-0 before the Jets made it a game later. It was Hurst’s 3rd game with 4 receptions and his 1st score of the year.

Even with Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage out, Hurst still drew just 11.1% target share. He also fumbled twice -- losing 1 -- and was even bobbling the ball a bit as he crossed the goal line for his TD. Hurst has fumbled 3 times over just the past 2 games.

The overall ugliness at TE in fantasy this year might make Hurst more relevant, but he’ll need to do more than 2.6 receptions and 20.6 yards per game before he’s worth serious consideration.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Volume propelled Hurst to a TE9 finish last season. He ran the 4th most routes among TEs and averaged nearly 5.5 targets per game.
  • This came in a season that saw only 9 appearances from Julio Jones.
  • Hurst filled a short-range role (7.6-yard average depth of target) and wasn’t much of a big-play threat with only 10.2 YPC.
  • Among 26 TEs with 50+ targets, Hurst ranked 23rd in yards per route run (1.08, a career low).
  • 4 of his 6 TDs surfaced in the red zone. He tallied only 5 fewer red zone looks than Calvin Ridley (15 vs. 20).
  • 2021 brings a significant change, most notably with the arrival of top pick Kyle Pitts. A generational player on tape, Pitts will command a sizable target share right away.
  • Julio Jones was traded to the Titans in June. Last year, he was on pace for 121 targets.
  • Losing Jones theoretically allows Pitts to play more of a “big slot” role and potentially add in-line snaps to Hurst’s plate. Last year, the former Raven played 43.4% of his snaps in-line.
  • Hurst, though, was among the league’s worst graded run and pass-blocking TEs (via Pro Football Focus). Atlanta did add pure blocking TE Lee Smith in free agency.
  • New HC Arthur Smith, a former TE coach and the Titans OC last year, used 2-TE sets on a league-high 35% of the team’s snaps last year.
  • Don’t count out Hurst as at least a potential streamer in FFPC formats. As Titans OC last year, Smith’s TEs combined for a massive 29.4% target share.
  • Look for the Falcons’ pass volume to come down, though. They just ranked 1st league-wide in raw attempts (684) and pass rate (65.4%).

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

A favorable environment helped Hurst post career highs in 2020.

2021, though, looks like a year for sharp regression. Kyle Pitts is a clear upgrade, and even at 20, he projects as an immediate contributor. The Julio Jones trade helps Hurst, but the latter will still need some good fortune to have a legit shot at cracking TE2 range.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

It was easy to write off Falcons TE Hayden Hurst after the team drafted Kyle Pitts 4th overall and declined the 5th-year option on Hurst's rookie contract (making this the final year on his deal). But Matt Urben of Falcons Wire says to "look for Hurst to be a featured player" in the offense this year, which is expected to deploy multiple TEs as part of the plan to replace WR Julio Jones' production. We'll have to see just what Hurst's role looks like, but we saw HC Arthur Smith use Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser simultaneously with last year's Titans. The biggest draw to Hurst is an ADP that will find him undrafted in most fantasy football leagues.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

Tori McElhaney of The Athletic reports that Falcons TE Hayden Hurst has shed 18 pounds vs. last year's playing weight (down to 250). Hurst -- who had his 5th-year option declined by the team this offseason -- still appears headed for a significant role in the offense. McElhaney writes: "Because of [Arthur] Smith's scheme, there are just as many opportunities for Hurst as [Kyle] Pitts. And if training camp is any indicator, we'll see both of them on the field together a lot." That's worth keeping in mind as you navigate reserve TE territory in best-ball drafts. Hurst sits just 27th among TEs in current FFPC best-ball ADP.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Hayden Hurst (ankle) is active for today’s game vs. the Raiders. He only got in a limited practice on Friday, so he obviously won't be at 100%. But Hurst might get a target boost with WR Julio Jones out.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Hayden Hurst (ankle) is expected to play Sunday against the Raiders, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Hurst managed only a limited Friday practice after sitting out the previous 2 days, so he'll present some risk even if active. Las Vegas also rates 9th in TE coverage, according to Football Outsiders. We'll confirm Hurst's status when the early-game inactives come out.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Hayden Hurst (ankle) is questionable for this weekend's game vs. the Raiders. He only got in a limited practice on Friday, so he obviously won't be at 100% if he suits up. We'll get Hurst's game status by noon ET on Sunday.

View all Hayden Hurst Shark Bites »

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