Isaiah Likely - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Likely is an enticing talent for the position, but he’s blocked from fantasy relevance whenever Mark Andrews is healthy. Likely should only be stashed in dynasty leagues and deep TE-premium redraft formats. Even in those spots, he’s not exciting.

What We Learned Last Year

• Likely continued to fill in well when Mark Andrews went down, but he’s no Andrews.
• From Week 12 on (after Andrews’ left-leg injury), Likely ranked just 20th in target share among TEs. Andrews remained top-5 for the season.
• Likely did beat Andrews in yards per catch, thanks primarily to his 7.2 yards after catch per reception. That more than made up for a 7.4-yard aDOT that trailed Andrews by 1.2 and ranked 10th on the team. It lined up with Likely’s rookie-year aDOT, though.
• Likely’s alignments changed in his second season.
  • As a rookie, he spent 62.2% of pass snaps in the slot (according to PFF), 18.9% out side, and just 18.6% inline.
  • In 2023, he went 52.6% slot, 6.0% wide, and 40.9% inline.
  • That rate of inline snaps nearly quadrupled Andrews’ rate (10.4%) and sat much higher than even Andrews’ career high (28.1% in 2018).

What to Expect in 2024

• Perhaps that difference in alignments can help Likely find more playing time going forward. But his first two years have showed us that we shouldn’t expect much whenever Mark Andrews is healthy.
  • Likely caught just eight total passes in 10 games shared with Andrews last season. Half of those came in a blowout win over Seattle that Andrews and other starters left early.
  • In 2022, Likely averaged 1.6 catches and 13.8 yards over 14 full games shared with Andrews.
• That Andrews block – and he’s signed through 2025 – leaves little else to say about Likely. It doesn’t really matter how good he is without the non-handcuff path to opportunities.