Isaiah Likely Fantasy Overview

A Huge Fantasy Flop

Likely made his season debut in Week 4 because of a foot injury. In 14 games, he racked up just 27 catches, 307 yards, and 1 TD. He hit 40 yards only twice.

He finished TE41 in PPR points per game; 45th in half-PPR. Likely posted weeks at TE6 and TE10 late in the season but notched only one other week inside the top 24 (TE22).

He Couldn't Emerge from Mark Andrews' Shadow

Likely played all 14 games with Mark Andrews, who held the edge in route rate (61.6% to 53.3%) and target share (17.4% to 10.6%).

Likely’s targets per route run fell to a career-low 0.16, which ranked 35th among 40 TEs with at least 200 routes.

Likely Didn't Win on Efficiency

In a sample of 43 TEs with at least 30 targets, Likely ranked:

• 18th in yards per route run
• 24th in yards per reception
• 29th in yards after catch per reception
• 37th in catch rate

The YAC per reception decline looks alarming after two straight top-5 finishes, though his summer foot injury may have played a role.

QB Play, Run-Heavy Scheme Limits Targets

Lamar Jackson missed four games and admitted to playing through various injuries. Tyler Huntley and Cooper Rush combined for 182.2 yards and 0.5 TDs per game in relief.

The Ravens also continued to lean on Derrick Henry, finishing 32nd in pass rate, 32nd in pass attempts, and 31st in red-zone pass rate. That didn’t give Likely enough volume to become a fantasy factor, especially alongside a healthy Andrews.

An Injury Appeared Before the Season ... and That Wasn't All

Likely’s season started ominously with a July 29 broken foot that required surgery. He missed the first three games, then drew just 5 targets across his first four games back. Hip and calf injuries also showed up later, although neither forced him to miss a game.

Prior to 2025, Likely sat out one game in 2024 with a hamstring injury and one in 2022 with an ankle issue.

Likely Brings Bounce Back Potential

Likely’s down year didn’t stop the Giants from making a serious investment: three years, $40 million, and $26 million guaranteed. That ranks fourth among TEs in average annual salary and 11th in guarantees, putting him in the lead TE role ahead of 2025 starter Theo Johnson.

Likely’s main target competition is also a potential source of upside. Malik Nabers missed all but four games last season with ACL and meniscus tears. The Giants have expressed optimism that he’ll be ready for Week 1, but that’s not a lock. Any missed time would boost Likely’s target outlook, especially with this weak WR corps behind Nabers:

• Darius Slayton
• Calvin Austin III
• Darnell Mooney
• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Malachi Fields
• Odell Beckham Jr.

We project Likely for a 16.3% target share, which would have ranked 16th among TEs last year.

Giants' QB Play is an X Factor

Year 2 improvement from Dart would help, but he still has plenty to prove as a passer. He’s also unlikely to match the efficiency Likely got from a healthy Lamar Jackson, who set a career high with 8.8 yards per attempt in 2024 and matched his best mark with a 77.0% adjusted completion rate.

Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts last season, Dart finished:

• 18th in catchable throw rate
• 29th in adjusted completion rate
• 29th in yards per attempt
• 34th in turnover-worthy throw rate

Harbaugh: 'I'm Certain He's Going to Be Able to Put Up the Numbers'

New HC John Harbaugh won’t call plays, but he’ll certainly have a say in the offense. He’s optimistic that Likely can post career-high numbers.

"When you see a player do it every day, you got a pretty good idea what he's capable of,” Harbaugh said of Likely, whom he coached in Baltimore. “So, I'm certain he's going to be able to put up the numbers… That wasn't part of the thing in Baltimore because of the supporting cast, so to speak."

Matt Nagy spent the past three seasons as Chiefs OC, but this is his first play-calling gig since 2021 in Chicago. His play-calling history there doesn’t point to a pass lean. His four offenses ranked 24th, 14th, eighth, and 17th in pass attempts and 27th, 11th, sixth, and 25th in pass rate, with Mitchell Trubisky and Justin Fields at QB.

His units cracked the top 20 in scoring only once.

Overall, the new OC isn’t a reason to boost Likely’s fantasy outlook.

Paths To Ceiling

The Giants already paid Likely like a player with a real role, and the weak WR depth behind Nabers makes that stance believable.

Nabers missing time would likely boost Isaiah Likely’s target volume. But a healthy season from Nabers would do more for the offense’s scoring ceiling, which would help Likely as a red-zone option. He ranked 11th among TEs with a 21.1% red-zone target share just two years ago, even with Mark Andrews playing all season.

There’s a path for Likely to become a go-to streamer, especially if Dart shows second-year growth.