Jonathan Taylor - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• 2021 was a truly special breakout year for Taylor (332-1,811-18), fantasy’s RB1 finisher.
• He ranked as an RB1 in 13 of 17 games. Remarkable.
• At only 22, he became the youngest RB to record 2,000 scrimmage yards and 20 TDs.
• He saw a huge 77.3% of the Colts’ backfield carries.
• He lead the league in red zone carries (85) and goal line carries (41).
• Taylor ran behind an O-line that ranked a solid 9th in PFF run blocking grade. The key players from the ’21 line return for another season.
• Taylor ranked 3rd among 19 RBs with 200+ attempts in PFF’s Elusive Rating; T-1st in YPC. He ranked 1st in PFF rushing grade.
• The 23-year-old enters his 3rd season set for another massive workload. Indy only swapped out insurance back Marlon Mack for Phillip Lindsay this offseason.
• Nyheim Hines enters year 5 as a change-of-pace/passing down back. While we expect his usage to increase alongside new QB Matt Ryan, Hines ultimately saw just 5.6 touches per game in ’21.
• Ryan supplies an upgrade over Carson Wentz. And he figures to provide a more steady presence at QB.
• For his career, Ryan’s targeted RBs at a higher clip than Wentz has. Taylor was an efficienct pass-catcher in ’21 with 10.1 YPC — 2nd most among 35 backs with 40+ targets.
• Colts HC Frank Reich “would like to alleviate some of the load on [Jonathan] Taylor’s shoulders,” per beat writer George Bremer. (To be clear, these are Bremer's words -- not Reich's.)

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

JT erupted for a massive 2nd-year breakout in 2021. His 357 half-PPR points ranked 2nd most over the past 5 seasons.

Taylor, only 23, is positioned for another massive workload. And the arrival of Matt Ryan gives him a reliable presence under center to help game scripts stay positive. Taylor shouldn't last past the 2nd pick in 1-QB leagues.