Jonathan Taylor - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Taylor dealt with multiple injuries last season but still was effective on the ground with five RB1 performances. As the focal point of the offense, Taylor’s talent was able to overcome defenses keying in on him.

He hasn’t played a game with Anthony Richardson yet, so there is still some unknown of how Taylor will work with the young QB. The Steichen offense also leaves questions about Taylor’s pass-game usage.

Taylor’s talent will win out and he should be a rock solid RB1. Richardson being at QB could open up rushing lanes as well for even more efficiency.

What We Learned Last Year

• Taylor missed the first four games of the season rehabbing a high-ankle sprain. He also missed three weeks (Week 13-15) due to a torn ligament in his thumb.
• Taylor’s 741 rushing yards ranked 29th among RBs. His 19 catches ranked 50th among RBs.
• Taylor ranked as the PPR RB33 in total fantasy points (156.4) and RB11 in points per game (15.6).
  • He finished RB12 or better five times. He recorded two games between RB13 and RB24.
• He ranked 23rd among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 49.1%.
• He played 69% of the Colts offensive snaps last season.
• His per-game averages in his 10 games played were below his career average:
  • 16.9 carries (17.5)
  • 74.1 rushing yards (86.5)
  • 0.70 rushing TDs (0.75)
  • 2.30 targets (2.89)
  • 1.90 catches (2.32)
  • 15.3 receiving yards (18.0)
  • 0.10 receiving TDs (0.08)
• Taylor was a fairly effective runner still. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
  • 29th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
  • 20th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
  • 17th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
• He took a step back in receiving metrics, however. Among 59 RBs with 20+ targets, Taylor ranked:
  • 27th in PFF receiving grade
  • 40th in yards per route run
• Taylor did not play a full game with Anthony Richardson.

What to Expect in 2024

• Taylor enters his second season with the Colts under HC and play caller Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.
• The Colts are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit 20th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +6000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
• Taylor enters his fifth season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with Taylor’s career and profile will produce at 97% of his peak value at age 25.
• With only Trey Sermon, Evan Hull, and Tyler Goodson behind him on the depth chart, Taylor has a chance to dominate backfield work this season.