Jonathan Taylor - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats

RB IND

#9 Running Back

225 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available

Bye: 14

Experience: 1 Yr(s)

Age: 22

Height: 5'10"

Weight: 226

40 Time: 4.39

Weekly Outlook

Week 14 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	Fantasy Pts
86	0.7	3.1	25.6	0.1	16

Week 12
With Vita Vea on the field, the Bucs were back to being a dominant run defense, and it was clear that the Colts came in with a game plan to mostly test them through the air. As a result, Taylor had very little production through 3 quarters. Oddly enough, when they were trailing in the 4th quarter, they started to get Taylor involved with great results. He mostly carried the load on a late drive that gave them a chance to win, as he piled up yardage, including a TD run. Although he saw a solid 5 targets, he was unable to gain much yardage after the catch.

Not much to say about his outlook, as he should be the top player in fantasy the rest of the way. He’s scored in 9 straight games for a total of 15 scores in that span. He’s also posted at least 97 total yards in every game except Weeks 2 and 3. He does have a bye in Week 14 and a tough Week 16 matchup against the Cardinals, but otherwise, he can be a week winner in any game he plays.

Week 11
Taylor and Colts O-line completely dominated a Bills defense missing LB Trumaine Edmonds and DT Star Lotulelei. Rushing 32 times — a season-high — Taylor busted off 185 yards and 4 TDs. He was a chunk-yardage machine and is now up to 6 runs of 30+ yards this season. JT is also the first player in league history with 175 rushing yards and 5 total TDs in a game. He’s easily fantasy’s #1 RB on the year and will remain busy down the stretch. Week 12 does bring a tough rushing matchup vs. Tampa Bay. The Colts also have a Week 14 bye.

Week 10
Taylor’s 21-116-1 rushing line against the Jags was not particularly surprising. We all knew the matchup was terrific, and Taylor has been excellent lately. (And he even lost runs of 32 and 7 to holding penalties.)

The more noteworthy part of his Week 10 performance was the team highs in targets (8) and receptions (6). Taylor gained only 10 yards on those catches. The targets marked a season high, while his catches matched his high from Week 1. The low yardage seemed mostly bad luck. Taylor’s minus-0.9 average target depth marked his 4th straight game and 8th this season with a negative number in that category.

Taylor looks like as good a weekly play as anyone at the position going forward, especially beyond the Week 11 clash with Buffalo that looks like his only truly negative matchup the rest of the way.

Week 9
Taylor was the best player on the field in Thursday night’s win over the Jets. He ripped off 3 plays of 20+ yards, highlighted by 21-yard score in the 2nd quarter and a 78-yard TD in the 3rd that showcased Taylor’s elite speed.

He finished the night with a huge 19-172-2 rushing line -- plus another 28 yards on 2 catches. Taylor ranked 2nd among RBs to only James Conner in half-PPR points for the week. He’s now finished as a top 10 half-PPR RB in 6 straight weeks -- the longest streak by a RB this season.

Taylor has another plus matchup vs. the Jaguars in Week 10. The sledding will get tougher after that, though. From Week 11 to 17, the Colts have the 6th toughest RB strength of schedule. Taylor also has a bye in Week 14.

That’s not to say that you should be looking to unload this guy. Volume and talent will carry him to solid fantasy production the rest of the way. He might just not be an elite RB1 down the stretch.

Week 8
Taylor rushed 16 times for 70 yards and 1 TD in the Colts' Week 8 overtime loss to the Titans, adding 3 receptions for 52 additional yards.
Taylor looked unstoppable for most of this game. But for some reason Carson Wentz threw the ball 51 times compared to just 16 carries for JT.
It could have been a much bigger game for Taylor, but he had multiple 20+ yard carries called back by penalty, was tackled inside the 5 multiple times and wasn’t used enough in the passing game as Wentz blindly loves chucking it down field.
JT is an easy RB1 and has a mouth-watering matchup against the Jets as double digit favorites in Week 9.

Week 7
Although the 49ers loaded up to stop the run while playing in a torrential downpour, Taylor broke off enough long runs to get him over the 100-yard mark on just 18 carries. Of course, the conditions made the ball wet and the field sloppy, and he fumbled twice, though the 49ers only recovered one of them. He also could’ve had a great chance at a 2nd TD, but on a goal-line play, Carson Wentz faked the handoff and ran in the score on a bootleg. Taylor also was targeted 3 times, but the conditions gave him little chance to get going. Despite catching all 3 passes, they went for just 3 yards.

Obviously, fantasy managers aren’t happy that he’s yet to see more than the 18 carries in a game that he had this week. But with over 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games while scoring in each of his last 4, he’s been a strong fantasy starter. And although he doesn’t always see a lot of targets, he has a game with 60 receiving yards along with a game with 116 yards and a TD, so he always could augment his rushing production with a big play in the passing game.

Week 6
On the surface, Taylor’s number were off the charts: 14-145-2 rushing. These numbers are slightly inflated by an 83-yard run. But even with that run removed, his 13-62-2 line still would have been great for fantasy.

Taylor’s passing-game usage wasn’t a major factor in this one, but he ran more routes than Nyheim Hines.

This week the Colts take on a 49ers defense that has been average vs. the run. This includes allowing at least 15 PPR fantasy points to 4 RBs this season.

Week 5
Taylor showed off his wheels on the Colts’ opening drive of the game, taking a 3rd and 15 screen pass for a 76-yard TD to give the Colts an early lead. The Colts sprinkled in touches for Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack, but Taylor was able to make the most of his 36 (out of 69) snaps. Taylor added a 4-yard rushing TD in the 3rd quarter to give the Colts a 19-point lead. That is where the game went sideways for the Colts, and they were unable to hold onto the win. JT finished the night on the ground with 15 carries for 53 yards and 1 TD. He tacked on 116 receiving yards on 3 catches (4 targets) with a TD. Taylor now has over 100 total yards in 3 out of the Colts first 5 games and has scored 3 TDs in their last 2 games. Next up for Taylor and the Colts rushing attack is a Houston defense that has given up over 560 rushing yards to opponents RBs and 4 rushing TDs through 5 games. We have JT ranked at RB8 this week against the Texans. The next three games on the schedule for the Colts are HOU, @SF, and TEN. It is rumored that the Colts are taking calls for Marlon Mack, and that would certainly help Taylor’s fantasy value if Mack were to be traded.

Week 4
Taylor touched the ball on Indy’s first 4 offense plays. Clearly, he wasn’t limited by the knee that landed him on the injury report -- 103 yards and a score on 16 carries provide further proof. He added 3 catches for 11 yards, 1 of which was a designed screen. Marlon Mack — inactive last week — mixed in for 10 carries, but note that 6 came on Indy’s final, clock-killing drive with a 10-point lead. Not ideal for JT, but the team was very likely just keeping him fresh. He gets a much tougher Week 5 draw at Baltimore on Monday night. He's an RB2 for that one.

Week 3
Taylor probably should have had a better Week 3 than he did.

He averaged 6.4 yards per rush against the Titans, with a season-best 3.6 yards after contact per carry, according to Pro Football Focus. Curiously, though, Taylor only got 10 carries. Part of the problem was poor time of possession in the 1st half. Indy ran only 22 offensive plays vs. 38 for Tennessee in that span. Taylor had just 4 attempts by the break, matching Nyheim Hines’ total.

The game remained close until a Tennessee FG with 2:58 pushed the lead to 9. Yet Taylor drew only 6 more carries in the 2nd half. Indy finished with only 16 RB carries (plus 2 WR rushes) vs. 39 dropbacks for Carson Wentz. That seemed especially curious given that Wentz entered the game on 2 sprained ankles.

Taylor endured a little more bad luck in watching Hines claim the day’s only rushing score from 9 yards out in the 2nd quarter. The Colts returned to the Tennessee 9-yard line midway through the 3rd quarter with Taylor in the game, but opted for 3 straight incomplete passes over handing it to their 2nd-year back. The 3rd found Zach Pascal losing the ball on a near-catch at the goal line. A reception there just might have set Taylor up for a 4th-down end-zone plunge.

The lack of TDs for Taylor in this game and on the season so far is frustrating. But it’s more a spot to look for regression than it is a reason to worry. According to Pro Football Reference, Taylor’s 6 carries inside the 5-yard line leads the NFL through 3 weeks. He’s 1 of just 5 players with 2+ carries in that range who has yet to score.

Week 4 presents a potential breakout spot with a Miami defense that has allowed the 2nd-most PPR points to RBs so far.

Week 2
This performance is exactly why we named Taylor our First Round Bust. He found himself in a 3-man committee backfield in the tight loss to the Rams. Taylor played just 45% of the Colts’ offensive snaps, losing 38% to Nyheim Hines and 18% to Marlon Mack. Taylor led the way with 15 carries but ceded 6 total to Mack and Hines. And after a busy outing in the passing game in Week 1, Taylor caught his only target for just 2 yards vs. the Rams.

Now, his fantasy day could have been much bigger if not for some tough luck near the end zone. Taylor had 5 carries from inside the Rams’ 5 yard line but was unable to hit pay dirt. He’s the Colts’ clear goal-line back, so TDs are coming.

But the split with Hines and Mack will make Taylor more volatile from week to week than you’d like out of a guy you spent a 1st-round pick on. And now he might need to deal with Jacob Eason under center after Carson Wentz sprained both ankles in Week 2.

At least Taylor gets a plus Week 3 matchup at Tennessee. That followed by road games in Miami and Baltimore and then a dream spot at home for the Texans.

Taylor remains a low-end RB1 going forward.

Week 1
The best news for Taylor after Week 1 was even with the Colts trailing by double digits for the entire the second half, he still got his touches. 12 of his 23 touches came in the second half. Meanwhile Taylor led the Colts in receiving with 7 targets, 6 receptions and 60 yards. Something to note is Taylor was tied for 6th on the team in routes, only running 18 on 44 drop backs. Still, this resulted in a combined 116 total yards which resulted in solid RB14 finish in .5 PPR on a week where he didn’t score a TD.
The usage is an encouraging sign for Taylor owners as they head into Week 2 vs. the Rams. The Los Angeles defense is much stronger against the pass than the run as they allowed the 5th most rushing yards to RBs in Week 1. This makes Taylor a solid RB2 with RB1 upside if he finds the end zone.

Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

Taylor got off to a slow start as a rookie last year, averaging 13.5 carries, 51.8 rushing yards, 2.7 targets, 2.6 catches and 22.7 receiving yards over his first 10 games.
He averaged 3.8 yards per carry over that stretch and ranked 55th among 60 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating.
Taylor missed Week 12 on the COVID list but was awesome the rest of the way. Over the final 6 games (including the playoff loss), Taylor averaged 19.7 carries, 121.5 rushing yards, 2.7 targets, 2 catches and 13 receiving yards.
He averaged 6.2 yards per carry over that stretch and ranked 8th in Elusive Rating among 51 qualifiers.
Taylor’s 24.5 PPR points per game across those 6 games would have ranked 3rd over the course of the season; his 22.5 non-PPR points 2nd.
Two concerns:
- Taylor benefitted from a soft closing schedule, with 4 of those final 6 games coming against bottom-4 defenses in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.
- He still averaged just 2.7 targets per game over that stretch -- a full-season pace of 43 that would have ranked 27th at his position.
Back on the plus side, Taylor ranked 11th among 37 qualifying RBs in PFF receiving grade and 9th in yards per route run.
Nyheim Hines is back for 2021 as a serious threat to Taylor’s target upside. Hines beat Taylor in both PFF receiving grade and yards per route run last year.
The Colts are also expected to get Marlon Mack back after he went down with a season-ending torn Achilles in last year’s opener. Even if he’s healthy, though, Mack is more likely to take over the 84 carries Jordan Wilkins garnered last year than eat into Taylor’s workload.
Taylor should again be running behind 1 of the league’s top offensive lines. The Colts return 4 of 5 starters from a unit that ranked 3rd in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades last year. The team signed longtime-Chief Eric Fisher to replace the retired Anthony Castonzo at LT -- although Fisher might not be ready until October after tearing his Achilles in January.
OC Nick Sirianni left to take the Eagles HC job. He’ll be replaced by former QBs coach Marcus Brady. But with HC Frank Reich back, the offense should be similar to last year.
The big change comes at QB, where Carson Wentz replaces Philip Rivers. That’ll be an upgrade if we get 2017-2019 Wentz; a downgrade if it’s 2020 Wentz.
The QB change might mean fewer targets to Colts RBs. Rivers’ last 3 teams have targeted RBs at rates of 27.0%, 29.6% and 24.3%. Wentz’s last 3 teams: 17.0%, 18.6% and 16.1%.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Taylor disappointed for the first 10 games of his rookie campaign. But over the final 6, he looked like the guy who ripped off a pair of 2,000-yard seasons at Wisconsin. Taylor’s scoring average during that span would have ranked top 3 at his position across scoring formats.

We’re expecting big rushing production again in 2021 from this exciting talent running behind a strong offensive line. The only real concern is how much passing-game work he’ll garner with Nyheim Hines still in the mix. That keeps Taylor outside our top 5 RBs -- although he’s certainly capable of finishing in that range.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor left in the 2nd quarter of Thursday night's game against the Jets with a knee injury. Indianapolis reached halftime with a 28-10 lead, so we wouldn't be surprised if the team shuts Taylor down for the night -- even if the injury isn't serious. We'll keep an eye on the situation either way.

Update: Taylor took the field to open the 2nd half.

View all Jonathan Taylor Shark Bites »

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (knee) is active for today’s game vs. the Dolphins. He was limited in practice all week due to “a little fluid build-up” in that knee, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Taylor will also be without stud G Quenton Nelson today. See where he sits in the Week 4 RB Rankings.

View all Jonathan Taylor Shark Bites »

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (knee) is expected to play vs. the Dolphins today, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. "He had a little fluid build up in his knee, but it was more nagging than anything else," Rapoport adds. "He’ll be fine."

View all Jonathan Taylor Shark Bites »

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game vs. the Dolphins after a limited week of practice. We've heard nothing to suggest that Taylor is in danger of missing this one, but his status is worth checking on when inactives come out around 11:30 am ET on Sunday.

View all Jonathan Taylor Shark Bites »

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (knee) remained limited in Thursday's practice. We've heard nothing to suggest that Taylor is in danger of missing Sunday's game vs. the Dolphins, but check back tomorrow for another update on his situation.

View all Jonathan Taylor Shark Bites »

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