Bottom Line

Taylor is a virtual lock to rebound vs. last year, assuming he can stay healthy. But there are some unknown variables at play when determining his ceiling.

How much better will the new offense be? How soon with QB Anthony Richardson take over? How much goal-line work might he siphon, and will he hurt RB target share?

Taylor remains a high-upside player across situations, but his contract situation is making him tough to trust in drafts right now. We'll keep watching for his return.

A holdout into the regular season would seem unwise, as it would just cost him money. But until Taylor's back on the field, you'll need to decide whether you're comfy taking on the risk in your draft.

What We Learned Last Year

• Turns out Taylor is not invincible. A year after staying healthy for a league-leading 332 carries – plus the league’s most rushing yards, scrimmage yards, and total TDs – Taylor lost six games and nearly all of a seventh to an ankle injury.
  • Taylor originally suffered the injury in Week 4, missed time in three segments, and eventually needed post-season surgery.
  • He said the debridement procedure cleaned out “a bunch of junk in there from a bunch of years.”
    • "Just finally had to clean it out and make sure I'm good to go,” Taylor said. “We finally had the time to get it right, make sure I'm 100% ready to rock. That's all you can ask.”
• We’ll watch him through the summer, of course. But it doesn’t seem like the ankle should be a lingering issue. Perhaps it’ll even be stronger than it was at the beginning of 2022.
• When on the field last season, Taylor generally fell short of his 2021 performance. He posted significantly worse marks in:
  • yards per carry
  • yards per catch
  • yards after contact
  • rushing yards over expected
  • elusive rating
  • Pro Football Focus rushing grade
  • Football Outsiders DVOA, DYAR, and success rate
  • and pretty much all receiving metrics
• But it’s not like he was terrible.
  • Taylor’s elusive rating, yards after contact per attempt, and missed tackles forced per rush beat his rookie-year numbers, according to PFF.
  • He ranked top-22 in all three categories among 61 RBs with 70+ carries.
• He suffered from an offense that FO rated worst in the league and a team that fell from 9-8 to 4-12-1. Both factors helped cut Indy’s run rate from 47.4% of offensive plays in 2021 to 39.8% last year.
• The O-line also declined. The Colts fell from seventh in adjusted line yards (Football Outsiders) in 2021 to 22nd last year. Their run-blocking grade also dropped from 78.6 to 62.0.
• Despite appearing in only 11 games (and missing nearly all of one of those), Taylor still carried 116 more times than any other Colt last season. Zack Moss ranked second with 76 attempts across eight games. Taylor also led Indy RBs in targets, though Deon Jackson caught two more passes.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Colts’ offense can’t be any worse in 2023, and it could be significantly better.
• The team drafted QB Anthony Richardson fourth overall, clearly believing he can fix a position that has relied on different veteran stopgaps each of the past four years, following Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement.
• The O-line incorporated two new starters last year, so improvement wouldn’t be a shock. The Colts could really use a rebound from star G Quenton Nelson, whose run-blocking grade has dipped significantly each of the past two years. Still just 27, Nelson has vowed to turn things around.
• If you take away the 2022 game Taylor left after playing just three snaps, he averaged 19.2 carries in the other 10. That ranked third in the league last season.
• Indy waited until Round 5 to draft RB Evan Hull and added nothing to the backfield in free agency. Taylor will clearly continue to dominate the workload.
• New HC Shane Steichen comes from a Philadelphia offense that ran on 48.4% and 51.2% of offensive plays the past two seasons. Don’t be surprised if this year’s Colts run a lot more than they did last year. Some of that will likely depend on team success, however.
• Anthony Richardson could challenge Taylor’s work. Rookie QBs don’t tend to be good for their teammates’ production. And mobile QBs don’t tend to help the target counts for their RBs. Richardson also presents a size-speed combo that could siphon rushing scores from Taylor.
• We’ll see whether the Colts open the year with Gardner Minshew behind center.
• Of course, the biggest thing working against Taylor is his own contract squabble. That has kept him out of training camp to date -- though it's also possible that his ankle recovery has been a factor. It's bad enough that Taylor has requested a trade.
• He's well outside Round 1 contention at this point ... and it's getting tougher to trust him in Round 2.