Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Taylor put together one of the best RB seasons in the league in 2025, finishing RB4 with 362.3 PPR points across 17 games. He averaged 21.3 PPR points per game, also RB4, and was the single biggest overachiever at the position, producing 4.1 more fantasy points per game than expected. Taylor averaged 2.1 more PPR fantasy points per game than expected heading into 2025.

Taylor led the league with 323 carries and 18 rushing touchdowns, while adding 46 receptions for 378 yards. He ranked ninth in yards per carry and fifth in rush yards over expected, meaning he was both getting volume and making the most of every touch.

2025 gave us Taylor’s best production since 2021:

Of course, scoring above expectation also signals some fragility in that production. We could see Taylor’s numbers regress in 2026 -- even if he stays healthy -- with less efficiency from him, the offense, or both.

Usage & Role

Daniel Jones boosted the offense and helped Taylor excel.

Through the 13 weeks Jones started, Taylor ranked second in both PPR points per game and expected points, producing 6.2 points per game over expectation, the largest gap of any running back in that stretch.

Jones’ ability to threaten defenses through the air helped keep boxes light. Taylor faced 8+ men on just 18% of his carries, 42nd among 51 RBs with 90+ carries and down slightly from 19.1% in 2024 (26th).

The Colts ensured he received those opportunities. His 23 carries inside the 5-yard line ranked second in the league.

Efficiency & Regression

Taylor struggled to keep his production after Jones went down with his Achilles injury.

He scored fewer TDs with the offense struggling more and found less rushing room when attempting to run. The high-powered offense with Jones helped provide the opportunities for Taylor to succeed.

That could be a problem if Jones misses games in 2026.

Injury History & Durability

Taylor played all 17 games in 2025, his first time since 2021. Taylor missed at least three games each season from 2022 to 2024. High ankle sprains and ankle injuries caused his absences in 2022 and 2024, while a torn ligament in his thumb put him on the bench in 2023.

The chronic ankle issues for Taylor throughout his career are certainly worth noting heading into 2026. It could halt his fantasy season if those crop up again.

Historical Production & Trends

Taylor’s receiving numbers were also the best of his career. He posted a 10.5% target share in 2025, the highest of his career, and ran a route on 71% of passing plays, fourth among all RBs.

That receiving role matters because it boosts his fantasy floor even in games where the run game stalls. For context on how that target share stacks up over his career:

Taylor's receiving involvement is back to where it was when he entered the league. That makes him harder to gameplan against and more valuable in PPR formats.

Supporting Cast

Taylor's role could even expand further in 2026 despite his league lead in carries in 2025. Jones’ Achilles’ recovery could motivate more of a run lean in 2026, especially early -- and especially with Michael Pittman Jr. gone from the passing game.

Last year actually produced the fewest rushes per game since Steichen arrived, though we can attribute at least some of that to Anthony Richardson starting 15 games over the previous two years vs. none last year).

Taylor’s 21.6 rushes per game in 2024 topped his 19.0 in 2025, but he also had a career low in catches per game at 1.3. So, more rushing could get Taylor more work on the ground, but also hurt his receiving.

The backfield competition is essentially nonexistent. DJ Giddens handled only 7.0% of Colts RB carries last year after arriving as a fifth-round pick. Seth McGowan arrived in the seventh round this spring and will need to prove he matters.

Taylor’s 73.1% share of team carries overall led the league in 2025.

Of course, it’s also worth noting that a weaker Jones and impacted offensive plan could hurt the unit’s overall efficiency. That scenario likely wouldn’t help Taylor’s output.

Supporting Cast

The Colts’ O-line remained one of the better run-blocking fronts in the league last season, ranking fourth in PFF run-blocking grade and seventh in ESPN run-block win rate.

The Colts let RT Braden Smith leave in free agency -- he got a two-year, $20 million deal from the Texans -- and plan to replace him with Jalen Travis.

Travis arrived in the fourth round of last year’s draft and started the final four games in place of the injured Smith. The rookie finished 38th in PRR run-blocking grade, just narrowly behind Smith (71.9, 35th).

Paths To Ceiling

We know Taylor won’t lose meaningful work as long as he stays healthy, but that injury factor is the biggest risk.

We can’t accurately predict season-altering injuries. But we do know historically that it takes some luck for a RB to hold up through the kind of workload Taylor just got. From the league expansion to 32 teams in 2002 through 2024, we saw 105 RB seasons of 300+ carries. Of those, 37 got another 300+ carries the following year.

That did include Taylor hitting 303 in 2024 and then 323 last year. But he also missed three games in 2024, one of four seasons among his six as a pro that have included 2+ games lost to injury.

That’s not a reason to pass on Taylor but a factor to keep in mind and try to insure against if you do open with Taylor.

Risk Factors

There’s also some risk in the offense, which tanked after Jones went down last season. More missed time for the QB would hurt the TD-heavy runner.

Even with Jones, we could see a softened Colts offense vs. last year’s hot start. That group averaged 32.1 points per game before its Week 11 bye, a pace that would have beaten the league-leading Rams by about 28 points for the season (and the No. 2 Patriots by 55).

Jones and the offense started to cool after the bye, but his injury early in Week 14 robbed us of the chance to see how it would finish.

A healthy Taylor in a healthy Colts offense has showed us he sports upside to the top of the position. But there’s also a chance we get something like Saquon Barkley’s 2025, where the factors that worked for the RB’s production turn against him.

And like Barkley, Taylor’s receiving doesn’t match the level of the three RBs joining him at the top of the ADP board (Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Christian McCaffrey).