What You Need to Know:

• Taylor got off to a slow start as a rookie last year, averaging 13.5 carries, 51.8 rushing yards, 2.7 targets, 2.6 catches and 22.7 receiving yards over his first 10 games.
• He averaged 3.8 yards per carry over that stretch and ranked 55th among 60 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating.
• Taylor missed Week 12 on the COVID list but was awesome the rest of the way. Over the final 6 games (including the playoff loss), Taylor averaged 19.7 carries, 121.5 rushing yards, 2.7 targets, 2 catches and 13 receiving yards.
• He averaged 6.2 yards per carry over that stretch and ranked 8th in Elusive Rating among 51 qualifiers.
• Taylor’s 24.5 PPR points per game across those 6 games would have ranked 3rd over the course of the season; his 22.5 non-PPR points 2nd.
• Two concerns:
  • Taylor benefitted from a soft closing schedule, with 4 of those final 6 games coming against bottom-4 defenses in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.
  • He still averaged just 2.7 targets per game over that stretch -- a full-season pace of 43 that would have ranked 27th at his position.
• Back on the plus side, Taylor ranked 11th among 37 qualifying RBs in PFF receiving grade and 9th in yards per route run.
• Nyheim Hines is back for 2021 as a serious threat to Taylor’s target upside. Hines beat Taylor in both PFF receiving grade and yards per route run last year.
• The Colts are also expected to get Marlon Mack back after he went down with a season-ending torn Achilles in last year’s opener. Even if he’s healthy, though, Mack is more likely to take over the 84 carries Jordan Wilkins garnered last year than eat into Taylor’s workload.
• Taylor should again be running behind 1 of the league’s top offensive lines. The Colts return 4 of 5 starters from a unit that ranked 3rd in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades last year. The team signed longtime-Chief Eric Fisher to replace the retired Anthony Castonzo at LT -- although Fisher might not be ready until October after tearing his Achilles in January.
• OC Nick Sirianni left to take the Eagles HC job. He’ll be replaced by former QBs coach Marcus Brady. But with HC Frank Reich back, the offense should be similar to last year.
• The big change comes at QB, where Carson Wentz replaces Philip Rivers. That’ll be an upgrade if we get 2017-2019 Wentz; a downgrade if it’s 2020 Wentz.
• The QB change might mean fewer targets to Colts RBs. Rivers’ last 3 teams have targeted RBs at rates of 27.0%, 29.6% and 24.3%. Wentz’s last 3 teams: 17.0%, 18.6% and 16.1%.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Taylor disappointed for the first 10 games of his rookie campaign. But over the final 6, he looked like the guy who ripped off a pair of 2,000-yard seasons at Wisconsin. Taylor’s scoring average during that span would have ranked top 3 at his position across scoring formats.

We’re expecting big rushing production again in 2021 from this exciting talent running behind a strong offensive line. The only real concern is how much passing-game work he’ll garner with Nyheim Hines still in the mix. That keeps Taylor outside our top 5 RBs -- although he’s certainly capable of finishing in that range.