Expect Johnson's Role to Diminish
We project Johnson for a similar route rate as last season: 74%
But we have his target share dropping from 16.9% to 15.0%, largely due to the selection of Round 1 WR Jordyn Tyson. That draft capital is backed up by an age-18 breakout, a 34% college target share, and the ability to win inside and out. Our prospect guru Shane Hallam comped Tyson to former Falcon Roddy White, who hit 1,100 yards six times in an 11-year career.
Tyson brings injury concerns after suffering several notable injuries at Arizona State. But he enters the summer healthy and positioned to work as the No. 2 target behind Chris Olave.
The Saints also bolstered their TE depth with Noah Fant and Oscar Delp. Fant shared work with Mike Gesicki last year but proved efficient, setting a career high in catch rate and posting his best yards per route run since 2021. Delp didn’t produce much at Georgia, but a 9.82 Relative Athletic Score and early Round 3 capital make him worth monitoring.
Shough Looks like a Rising QB
Shough enters Year 2 with a full offseason to settle in as the starter. He showed promise last year despite limited receiving help, below-average protection, and a midseason move into the lineup.
Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, the rookie ranked:
- 11th in completion rate
- 11th in catchable throw rate
- 13th in yards per attempt
HC, OC Return For Another Season
Johnson returns to the same staff that steered the team to rankings of fifth in pass rate, fifth in neutral pass rate, and sixth in total pass attempts last season.
Per Fantasy Points Data, Johnson also ranked 11th among TEs in first-read target rate at 19.4%, just behind Travis Kelce. That could dip with Tyson on the roster, but there’s no reason to doubt the TE’s fit under this staff.
Paths to Ceiling
If Johnson’s volume dips as expected, he’ll probably need an outlier TD season to hit his ceiling. Last year brought the opposite with a 3.8% TD rate, but his scoring chances should improve if Travis Etienne upgrades the run game and Shough develops.
Johnson also has a history of stronger TD production than we saw in 2025:
- 2021 TD rate: 30.7%
- 2022 TD rate: 16.6%
- 2023 TD rate: 10.8%
- 2024 TD rate: 6.0%
Johnson peaked with a 7-TD season in 2022.
Of course, there’s also the chance that Johnson retains more target share than we’re projecting for him, while also leveraging the positive efficiency and potentially benefiting from his team’s overall offensive improvement.
There’s a route to top-12 fantasy numbers among TEs.