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Juwan Johnson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJuwan Johnson's Basic Stats

Juwan Johnson
ADP: 13.9
Bye: 11
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 27.0
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 231
40 Time: 4.58
Speed Score: 108.80
SPARQx (Rank): 100.50 (32%)
Burst Score (Rank): 119.80 (67%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.31 (80%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.15 (79%)

Juwan Johnson's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.8 30.2 0.3 4.8
Weekly Writeup
Foster Moreau has a chance to return for Week 4. Johnson enters the weekend with only 7 catches in three games.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.7 30.8 0.3 4.5

Juwan Johnson's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#23 Tight End

71.3 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
13.9 43.2 492.6 4 0.7 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJuwan Johnson's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Johnson’s an interesting player in an offense with some upside.

He’d be more interesting for fantasy, though, if the Saints hadn’t also signed TE Foster Moreau. The team could very well keep Johnson around last year’s 65% playing time and run him as a third receiver who goes inline occasionally.

Don’t be surprised if he’s more valuable to New Orleans than to fantasy teams. You can find better values around (or after) his ADP.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Johnson more than doubled his playing time last season vs. 2021, from 26.3% of offensive snaps in his 14 games to 65.3% over 16 games in 2022.
  • Johnson finished third among Saints in targets (65), third in receptions (42), second in receiving yards (508), and first in TD catches (7).
  • He finished 14th in total PPR points among TEs; 17th in points per game.
  • His target share checked in just 21st at the position (adjusted for games missed).
  • Johnson posted a career-best 1.39 yards per route, tying for 19th among 43 TEs with 30+ targets.
  • He spent 50% of his pass snaps in the slot, 11th-highest among that TE group, according to Pro Football Focus. His 14.9% share spent out wide ranked 16th. The 34.9% spent inline ranked 30th. That speaks to New Orleans liking his receiving over the blocking.
What to Expect in 2023
  • The Saints told us more about how much they like Johnson by re-signing him ahead of free agency. Johnson’s two-year, $12 million contract is almost fully guaranteed.
  • The team also added TE Foster Moreau in free agency, once it was deemed his Hodgkin’s lymphoma wouldn’t keep him from playing this season. Moreau signed for less per year than Johnson, but still got a little more than $12 million total on a three-year deal, with $8 million of that guaranteed.
  • Moreau spent his first four seasons with the Raiders and QB Derek Carr, whom Moreau calls one of his closest friends. The TE also grew up in New Orleans and played college ball at LSU.
  • Moreau more than doubled his slot rate last year vs. his previous high and has played 14.3% of his career pass snaps out wide. But he has also spent much more time inline than Johnson has: 58% for his career, 62.9% or more in each of his first three seasons.
  • The money guaranteed to both players in the same offseason says we should expect to see plenty of both on the field. New Orleans ranked among the league leaders in multi-TE sets last year with a weaker No. 2 (Adam Trautman).
  • We’ll see about the team’s passing volume. The Saints ranked just 25th, 30th, and 26th in pass attempts the past three seasons. The investment in Carr ($150 million over four years, with $100 million guaranteed) seems to indicate more passing lean. But New Orleans also paid for RB Jamaal Williams and drafted RB Kendre Miller in Round 3, while investing little at WR.

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Foster Moreau, TE NO

11:38am EDT 9/24/23

Foster Moreau INACTIVE

Saints TE Foster Moreau (ankle) is inactive for today’s game vs. the Packers. His absence is a slight boost to TE Juwan Johnson's Week 3 fantasy outlook.

View all Foster Moreau Shark Bites »

Saints TE Foster Moreau (ankle) is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game vs. the Packers. He's totaled just two targets but 68 pass routes through two weeks. Moreau's absence is a slight boost to TE Juwan Johnson's Week 3 fantasy outlook.

View all Foster Moreau Shark Bites »

Saints TE Juwan Johnson has emerged as one of QB Derek Carr's "most reliable targets," ESPN's Katherine Terrell writes. “I think he’s developed a nice little rapport with Derek,” HC Dennis Allen said. "He seems to be where Derek wants him, when he wants him there. When you do that, you kind of get rewarded and the ball comes your way." Johnson is coming off a breakout 42-508-7 line last year. That TD rate is a near lock to regress, but there's potential for Johnson to improve his catch and yardage totals. He's an intriguing TE2 target in fantasy drafts.

View all Juwan Johnson Shark Bites »

The Saints signed TE Jimmy Graham to a one-year deal. Yeah, that Jimmy Graham. The 36-year-old hasn’t played since 2021 when he tallied only 14 catches with the Bears. We’re not counting on Graham to make a fantasy impact alongside Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau.

View all Jimmy Graham Shark Bites »

Saints TE Foster Moreau was a "frequent target" of QB Derek Carr in OTAs and minicamp, according to ESPN's Katherine Terrell, who named Moreau the Saints' surprise offseason standout. Moreau has worked with the first- and second-team offenses and "could compete with Juwan Johnson for snaps as the team's No. 1 or No. 2 tight end," Terrell writes. We're currently projecting Johnson to lead Saints TEs in fantasy points but will keep a close eye on the situation throughout the summer. If nothing else, the gap between Johnson and Moreau shouldn't be as big as it's been in recent fantasy drafts. Johnson is TE17 in FFPC ADP, while Moreau is TE41.

View all Foster Moreau Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Juwan Johnson, TE NO
Dynasty MVP 46.1
Position Rank #28 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
153
235
405
Dynasty Write-up
An athletic, catch-first TE, Johnson put together a career-best year in 2022. Only 27 (in September), it’s quite possible he remains New Orleans’ lead TE over the short-term. He inked a 2-year deal in March.
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