Ladd McConkey - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

The Chargers traded up to make McConkey the 34th overall pick of this year’s draft. He joins a wide-open WR corps that lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason. McConkey has a chance to lead the team in targets this year.

He arrives with an underwhelming college production profile, though, never leading Georgia in catches or receiving yards. And this Chargers offense figures to finish in the bottom half of the league in pass rate under new HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman.

Expect McConkey to settle somewhere in WR3/4 range this season, likely holding more value in full PPR leagues.

What We Learned Last Year

• McConkey’s raw college production is underwhelming. After redshirting in 2022, he totaled just 119 catches, 1,687 yards, and 14 TDs over the last three seasons.
• McConkey never led Georgia in catches or receiving yards.
• His career 17.8% Dominator Rating (share of team’s receiving yards and TDs) lands in the 19th percentile among WRs.
• McConkey battled for targets with uber TE prospect Brock Bowers all three seasons.
• Injuries were also a problem. McConkey played through turf toe and knee injuries in 2022. Then he missed four games with a back injury and one with an ankle injury last year.
• McConkey was a part-time player last year. He did not finish top two among Georgia WRs in pass routes in a single one of his nine games.
• On the plus side, McConkey was very efficient on a per-route and per-target basis.
  • He averaged a strong 2.54 yards per route across his three seasons. His career-best 3.26 yards per route last year ranked eighth among 409 WRs with 35+ targets.
  • McConkey registered a career 75.3% catch rate, 14.2 yards per catch, and 10.7 yards per target.
• McConkey is a polished route runner and one of the best separators in the 2024 WR class.
• He’s dangerous after the catch with a career 0.25 missed tackles forced per reception – a better rate than guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze.
• He’s position versatile, playing 70% of his career snaps out wide and 30% in the slot.
• McConkey checked into the Combine at a smallish 6’0 and 186 pounds. He has a ninth-percentile wingspan and sixth-percentile hand size.
• He clocked a strong 4.39-second 40 time with a 55th-percentile vertical and 69th-percentile broad. McConkey earned a 9.34 Relative Athletic Score.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Chargers traded up three spots to select McConkey with the 34th overall pick of this year’s draft. He was the ninth WR off the board.
• He joins a WR corps that lost both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason.
• RB Austin Ekeler, who averaged 6.3 targets and 4.9 catches per game over the last four years, is also gone.
• McConkey’s primary competition for snaps and targets will come from WRs Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and D.J. Chark.
  • Palmer has increased his receiving yards per game across each of his first three NFL seasons, topping out at 58.1 last year. But he sports a subpar 1.36 career yards per route and has never ranked better than 62nd among WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
  • Johnston was the 21st overall pick of last year’s draft but is coming off an ugly rookie season. Among 93 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked 81st in PFF receiving grade and 83rd in yards per route.
  • Chark signed with the Chargers in early May on a one-year, $3 million deal with a little over $2 million guaranteed. He's missed 39 games over the last four seasons and averaged 48.6 yards per game. His 1.08 yards per route last year ranked 75th among 93 qualifying WRs.
• The Chargers have a new coaching staff this year led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, who both have run-leaning backgrounds.
• Harbaugh and Roman spent four seasons together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in pass attempts and pass rate:
  • 2011 - 31st, 30th
  • 2012 - 31st, 30th
  • 2013 - 32nd, 31st
  • 2014 - 29th, 27th
• Here’s where the 49ers’ top WR finished in PPR points per game under Harbaugh and Roman:
  • 2011 - 30th (Michael Crabtree)
  • 2012 - 17th (Crabtree)
  • 2013 - 19th (Anquan Boldin)
  • 2014 - 25th (Boldin)