Show Navigation
Show Menu
Player Profile

Matt Ryan - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Matt Ryan
ATL

QB ATL

#21 Quarterback

343 Projected Points

ADP: 11.2
Bye: 6
Experience: 13 Yr(s)
Age: 36
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.89

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#21 Quarterback

343 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
11.2 414/627 4577 28 13 96

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

308.7

DS Projection

343

Consensus

38 other sites
351.6

High Ceiling

408.2

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

-In 2020, Ryan played all 16 games for the 10th time over the past 11 seasons.

-He underwhelmed as a fantasy asset, though. Despite finishing #1 in pass attempts (626), he ranked 12th in total fantasy points.

-Since spiking up to a 7.1% TD rate in 2016, Ryan’s gone 3.8%, 5.8%, 4.2% and 4.2% over the past 4 seasons.

-In 9 games with Julio Jones, Ryan finished as the QB5, QB6, QB25, QB1, QB17, QB10, QB10, QB24, QB25

-Without Julio: QB27, QB23, QB18, QB27, QB6, QB15, QB10

-Jones, of course, was dealt to the Titans in June. His loss should at least be absorbed a bit by rookie TE Kyle Pitts, who looks like a generational TE prospect due to eye-popping length/athleticism/production.

-Atlanta’s O-line allowed pressure on 34.1% of Ryan’s dropbacks — 13th most among 36 QBs with 200+ dropbacks.

-That contributed to Ryan’s mid-pack adjusted completion rate of 76.7%. As a pure pocket passer, getting improved O-line play will be key for the now 36-year-old.

-Look for Atlanta to roll out 2 new O-line starters after losing veterans Alex Mack and James Carpenter. 2nd-year 3rd-rounder Matt Hennessy should step in at center; veteran Josh Andrews (and a host of others) will compete for the LG spot. Overall, we don’t anticipate high-end play up front.

-The Falcons brought in new HC Arthur Smith and OC Dave Ragone. Smith, the former OC in Tennessee, will have his hands all over this offense. He orchestrated a run-first, play-action heavy offense with the Titans, but that was with Derrick Henry in the backfield. There’s no such talent in Atlanta’s backfield.

-A suspect defense should help this offense lean pass once again. Ryan’s actually attempted 600+ passes in 3 straight seasons. He’s gone over 600 in 7 of his past 9 campaigns.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

A chunk of Ryan’s fantasy upside disappeared with the Julio Jones trade. A healthy Jones, even at 32, remains a top-10 WR.

While Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts form an intriguing top-2, it’s not enough for Ryan to become much more than a streaming option.

We’ll see how his ADP settles, but he’s not a primary draft-day target regardless.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The forecast for tonight's Falcons-Panthers game calls for a 40% chance of rain with winds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. That's not quite enough wind for us to adjust our projections for this game. But you might use the weather as a tie-breaker if deciding between 2 similarly ranked players.

View all Matt Ryan Shark Bites »

The Falcons have been cleared to re-open their facility after no positive COVID results from Thursday's round of testing, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports. The Atlanta-Minnesota game remains on for Sunday as of now. We'll let you know if that changes.

View all Matt Ryan Shark Bites »

The Falcons are shutting down their facility after getting back 4 positive COVID tests on Thursday morning, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Atlanta's game against the Vikings this weekend is now in question. Stay tuned.

Update: A source tells Schefter that the Falcons had just 1 positive test, and it wasn't a player. That has us a bit more optimistic that this game will happen this week.

View all Matt Ryan Shark Bites »

Falcons QB Matt Ryan (ankle) practiced all week and will play against the Saints on Sunday. New Orleans has tightened up against the pass lately, allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt and 4 total passing scores over the last 4 games. But Ryan remains in the lower-end QB1 mix in a game that should find him playing catch-up and chucking it plenty.

View all Matt Ryan Shark Bites »

Falcons QB Matt Ryan (ankle) was limited in Wednesday's practice. He's fully expected back for this weekend's game against the Saints, but we'll continue to monitor his status over the next few days.

View all Matt Ryan Shark Bites »

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Download on Google Play