Bottom Line

Gesicki hit rock bottom in 2022. He never developed into a reliable fantasy option, despite a dynamic Fins offense that needed a true No. 3 target.

New England provides an opportunity to rehab his value on a one-year deal. There’s just no ceiling here beyond TE-streamer territory.

What We Learned Last Year

• First-year Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel wasn’t a big fan of Geciski. The veteran TE set four-year lows in routes run (379), targets (52), catches (32), and yards (362).
• He at least remained durable. Gesicki’s now played 17 games in back to back seasons.
• Still, he posted only one top-6 fantasy week; three inside the top-12. He finished worse than TE18 12 times.
• On the year, Gesicki ranked as the fantasy TE23.
• Among 27 TEs with 50+ targets, Gesicki ranked 22nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, 26th in catch rate, 26th in yards after catch per reception, and 25th in yards per route run.
• He was charted with only one missed tackle forced all season, per PFF.

What to Expect in 2023

• Gesicki signed a one-year deal in March with $3.5 million guaranteed.
• He’ll join a TE corps featuring Hunter Henry, who’s entering a contract year.
• Held back by a poorly designed offense, Henry tallied a down year in 2022: 59 targets, 41 catches, 509 yards, and two TDs on an 11.3% target share.
• Gesicki gets a boost from a Pats offense that looks thin elsewhere. JuJu Smith-Schuster (who also arrived in free agency) is the unit’s only notable pass catcher.
• HC Bill O’Brien returns to the team as a massive play-calling upgrade.
• We don’t anticipate a pass-happy approach, given the current personnel. Current projections have the Pats at a 58% pass rate – right around league average.
• Mac Jones’ ability to play closer to his rookie-year level will be key. Jones’ numbers fell off across the board in ‘22, but we’re optimistic he’ll improve in year three alongside O’Brien.