Mike Gesicki - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

It makes sense if you’re hesitant to bet on Gesicki for 2024. The thing is … you don’t have to. He’s going TE27 in best ball ADP, and that’s an even friendlier format to him than typical redraft will be. Gesicki’s not likely to be a significant factor in redraft. But he’s a solid pick as a TE3 in best ball and deep TE2 stash where that makes sense.

What We Learned Last Year

• The Patriots either lied, misjudged Gesicki’s potential, or just stunk on offense. And there was probably at least some of each sprinkled in.
• New England indicated excitement over Gesicki’s skill set after signing him on the open market last offseason. The former Dolphin played in every game but ranked just eighth in targets on one of the league’s worst offenses (30th in yards, 31st in scoring).
• Gesicki caught his fewest passes (29) since his rookie year and set career lows in yards per catch, yards per target, and yards per route.
• He also earned the second-lowest Pro Football Focus receiving and overall grades of his six-year career. That marked his third straight year of decline for each.
• Gesicki then signed a one-year, $2.5 million contract with the Bengals that includes just $400K in guarantees.

What to Expect in 2024

• The meager salary – down precipitously from the franchise tag fee he got in Miami just two seasons before – tells us nothing is locked in for Gesicki’s age-29 season. But he lands in arguably his bet spot since 2021.
• Gesicki has been more slot WR than TE throughout his career. He has run 60.5% of his slot snaps from the slot, according to PFF. He has run another 20.7% from a wide position. Just 18.3% have come from a traditional inline TE position.
• Even though New England gave him disappointing playing time and target counts, it also put Gesicki in route on a career-high 95.8% of his pass snaps. That marked his fifth straight season of being in route on at least 90%.
  • No other TE who drew at least 30 targets was in route at a higher rate in 2023.
  • Among 45 TEs who reached 30 targets, 14 reached a 90% route rate.
• Gesicki joins an offense that willingly shed slot WR Tyler Boyd this offseason. Boyd ranked among the Bengals’ top 3 in targets for each of the five seasons he played under HC Zac Taylor.
• QB Joe Burrow praised Gesicki’s ability early in the offseason: “He’s got a big catch radius. He’s an explosive guy that I’m excited to work with.”
  • That might not align with last year’s 8.4 yards per catch. But Gesicki delivered a 96th-percentile speed score and 99th-percentile burst score for the position at the 2018 Combine, according to PlayerProfiler.
• Third-round rookie Jermaine Burton looks like the top candidate to join Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as Cincinnati’s top 3 WRs in 2024. None of those three has been a primary slot WR in the NFL or college.
  • The TE depth chart is weak as well.
    • Tanner Hudson led the group in receiving last year, catching 39 of 50 targets. That was his age-29 season. He had 15 career receptions before that.
    • Cincinnati drafted TE Erick All in Round 4, but he’s coming off an ACL tear and figures to be more of a factor for the long term than 2024.
  • That all leaves room for Gesicki to claim a significant role in this year’s offense.