Pats Will Run it Back
Expect Stevenson and Henderson to power the backfield again.
Our projections give Henderson the carry-share edge over Stevenson, 39.5% to 35.5%. That builds in some Year 2 growth from Henderson and some age-related downside for Stevenson.
We project both backs for 7 TDs, but Stevenson’s 20-pound size edge and last year’s goal-line success keep him positioned for the higher-value rushing chances.
Offense Should Remain One of the Best
Maye, Brown, Doubs, and Hunter Henry give New England enough passing-game firepower to keep defenses honest.
The O-line also remains in good shape. New England returns LT Will Campbell, RT Morgan Moses, and RG Mike Onwenu, while 2025 LG Jared Wilson shifts to center, his college position. The lone change is at LG, where the Pats will try to get a healthy season from Alijah Vera-Tucker.
The Pats certainly feel confident in his health after handing out a three-year deal with $21 million guaranteed, but he’s missed 41 games over the past four seasons, including all of 2025.
The Pats added insurance with Utah OT Caleb Lomu at pick No. 28, though his profile leans more pass protector than run blocker.
His Volume Probably Won't Spike
The Pats return OC Josh McDaniels.
Our projections have this unit’s run rate dropping to 45.2%, down from 46.9% in 2025. That’s supported by a Year 2 breakout from Maye and the WR additions of Brown and Doubs.
If Henderson takes the expected Year 2 step, Stevenson will have an even harder time matching last year’s 9.3 carries per game.
Stevenson Could Push for 10+ Tds
New England finished near the top of the league in points and yards last year, and Drake Maye is only entering Year 3.
It’s not difficult to envision a similar offensive performance, which could put Stevenson back in position to chase double-digit TDs. Barring a Henderson injury, though, that ceiling still likely tops out in mid-range RB2 territory.
He did finish RB12 in PPR points per game in 2022, but that came with an unrepeatable 69 catches and a weaker backfield partner in Damien Harris, who played just 11 games.
Henderson, Ball Security Add Risk
Any progress from Henderson would put Stevenson’s role under pressure. Stevenson’s fumbling history also leaves him vulnerable to a sudden workload shift.