Rhamondre Stevenson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Following a breakout 2022, Stevenson’s production dropped last fall.

A Week 13 high ankle sprain turns up one reason. New England’s offense remained unwatchable, too. Stevenson was unable to repeat his ‘22 efficiency or pass-catching output.

A coaching change and a hopeful QB upgrade adds optimism for Stevenson’s contract year. Just don’t expect impactful receiving stats following the addition of Antonio Gibson.

Stevenson ultimately settles in as a low-end RB2.

What We Learned Last Year

• Stevenson's 2023 ended with a Week 13 high ankle sprain.
• Prior to the injury, Stevenson averaged 12.9 PPR points per game – down from the 14.8 he tallied in a breakout 2022.
  • Despite a horrible offense, he still tallied five top-15 fantasy finishes.
• Among 37 RBs with 150+ carries, Stevenson ranked T-21st in YPC, 24th in YAC per attempt, and 20th in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating.
• He sat 8th in success rate and 19th in EPA per rush.
• Stevenson finished near league average in rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.12).
• He averaged 4.54 targets per game but remained underwhelming on a per-catch basis (6.3 YPC).
• In 10 games with Zeke Elliott, Stevenson out-carried him 126 to 86.

What to Expect in 2024

• Stevenson enters a contract year.
• The Pats added Antonio Gibson (3 years, $11.25 million) in free agency. He’s guaranteed $5.3 million.
  • Gibson flamed out in Washington last year, seeing a career-low 65 carries.
  • However, he tallied career highs in catches (48) and yards per catch (8.1). He projects best as a passing-down/change-of-pace back.
• Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett arrive to upgrade the QB room.
  • Brissett has a real chance to start Week 1, despite Maye arriving third overall. It’s very likely we see Maye at some point, though.
• The Pats ranked 10th in run-block win rate last year, but there are questions about the ‘24 unit.
  • LT Chukwuma Okorafor wasn’t a full-time starter in Pittsburgh last year and will transition from RT.
  • G Cole Strange is expected to miss early-season games due to a knee injury, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
• Alex Van Pelt arrives as the new play-caller. His units have ranked top 10 in rushes in four of five seasons as OC.