Top 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 13 Usage

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Playing time and touches are the backbone of fantasy scoring. 

Chasing one-week box scores can be dangerous. Investing in players who are on the field and getting the football is more reliable.

That’s why we study playing time and usage every week during the season. It can give us a tangible edge in start/sit decisions, waiver moves, and trades.

Here are the top 8 fantasy football takeaways from Week 13 usage:

1. Bucky Irving Primed For Big Finish

HC Todd Bowles said last week that Irving would be on a snap count in his first action since Week 4. That was technically true. His 54% snap rate and 37% route rate were well below his 76% and 63% marks over the first three games of the season.

But Irving got fed when he was on the field. He handled 17 of 21 RB carries. His 63% share of Bucs rush attempts was in line with his 64% share over the first three weeks.

Irving ceded passing-down work to White, finishing with just two targets. But don't be surprised if he gets more of that work going forward. He played about a third of the third-down snaps and dominated two-minute-drill snaps over the first three games of the season.

Irving also received both of Tampa Bay's carries inside the 10-yard line in Week 13 and had a one-yard TD called back by a holding penalty.

Just as importantly, he looked healthy. Although he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, Irving forced a season-high seven missed tackles and earned a season-best 70.9 Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

Irving's role should only grow from here. And there's nothing scary on the remaining schedule.

Fantasy owners who survived Irving's lengthy absence could be rewarded with top-12 fantasy production the rest of the way.

2. Chuba Hubbard Punches Back

Carolina's Week 13 backfield was a committee right from the jump. Dowdle got the first two carries of the game, but Hubbard got the third and capped the Panthers' opening possession with this impressive 35-yard catch-and-run TD.

Hubbard and Dowdle continued to rotate throughout the game, finishing close to 50/50 in snaps and touches. Hubbard notably controlled the third-down work and nearly tripled up Dowdle in routes (15 to six).

What Happened To Dowdle's Workhorse Role?

My best guess is that Hubbard simply earned a bigger piece of the backfield pie with his play. He struggled in his first few games back from his calf injury. But over the last four games, Hubbard has averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Dowdle has faded to 3.2 over that same span.

This looks like a true meritocracy -- and perhaps a "hot hand" situation each week. That'd make this backfield tough to project for fantasy purposes.

Hubbard and Dowdle will at least be helped by an extremely run-heavy offense. The Panthers are now tied with the Jets with a league-low -5.3% pass rate over expected on the season. And that's cratered to -7.9% since Week 5.

There could be enough work to keep both these guys fantasy relevant. But if they're going to split work down the middle, it'll be tough to trust either as more than a RB3 in fantasy lineups.

3. Patriots Backfield Devolves Into Committee

Stevenson was limited to a 31% snap rate in his first game back from his toe injury in Week 12. But he returned to a lead role in Monday night's win over the Giants.

Stevenson drew the start and played ahead of Henderson in all situations. He out-snapped the rookie 38 to 32, out-carried him 12 to 11, and ran more routes (21 to 16).

Not surprisingly, Henderson was more effective, averaging 6.1 yards per carry to Stevenson's 3.3.

Henderson's role was at least better than it was over the first eight games of the season, when he played 32% of the snaps and handled 23% of New England's carries. Plus, he notably received all three RB touches inside the 10-yard line in Week 13.

That vaulted Henderson to 14th among RBs in expected PPR points on the week.

How To Value This Backfield Now

That goal-line work will be key in this backfield going forward. Henderson notably did not score on any of those three touches inside the 10 vs. the Giants, which can't help his chances of hanging onto that work.

We'll see what this backfield looks like coming out of the Week 14 bye. The Patriots return to a tasty matchup against the Bills' 30th-ranked RB defense that'll likely have Henderson and Stevenson inside starter territory in our rankings. Beyond that sit neutral matchups vs. the Ravens and Jets.

Henderson's role + talent should be enough to return at least lower-end RB2 production the rest of the way. Stevenson could be a viable RB3.

4. Chase Brown’s Role Takes A Hit

Brown turned in another nice fantasy outing in Week 13, scoring 18.3 PPR points. But that was largely thanks to Cincinnati running 80 plays in positive game script. Brown's usage fell dramatically from the workhorse role he played over the previous three games.

RB Samaje Perine returned from his high-ankle sprain and was right back into a significant role. He played 43% of the offensive snaps, finished with just one fewer carry than Brown (15 to 14), and controlled passing-down work.

It was essentially the same arrangement we saw from Weeks 5 through 8. Brown averaged 10.0 carries and 3.5 targets over that span, ranking 20th among RBs in expected PPR points per game.

The good news:

1. Brown has been awesome lately, averaging 5.3 yards per carry over his last five games.
2. Joe Burrow's return should boost the entire offense.
3. The Bengals have the ninth-easiest remaining RB schedule, including a meeting with Buffalo's 30th-ranked RB defense in Week 14.

So, while Brown projects for RB2-level usage the rest of the way, he still has a chance to flirt with RB1 production.

5. Did Tyler Higbee’s Injury Save Puka Nacua’s Season?

Maybe it was stupid to worry about Nacua's usage a couple of weeks ago. Or maybe TE Tyler Higbee's trip to IR is the reason Nacua has rebounded the past two weeks.

The Rams went heavy on three-TE sets from Weeks 9 through 11, throwing 29% of their passes from that personnel grouping. That's sunk to 8% over the last two weeks sans Higbee.

And that's gotten Nacua back to full playing time and dominant target shares. He ranks top-nine among WRs in targets, target share, and expected PPR points per game over the last two weeks.

So while it'd be dramatic to say Higbee's injury saved Nacua's season, it certainly has him looking like a top-five fantasy WR once again. (Now if Davante Adams would just share some of the TDs ... )

6. Devin Neal Gets Workhorse Usage

Neal dominated Saints backfield work in his first game without Alvin Kamara, playing 81% of the offensive snaps and handling 14 of 19 RB carries.

Hull mixed in very sparingly, Audric Estime didn't play a single snap on offense, and Taysom Hill tallied just one carry and one target on 12 offensive snaps.

Neal's 81% snap rate ranked sixth among all RBs in Week 13; his 71% route rate was good for fifth.

The Saints didn't record any carries inside Miami's 10-yard line, so we don't know if Neal would have gotten any of that work over Hill. And, despite the strong usage, Neal finished just RB25 in expected PPR points and RB36 in actual PPR points on the week.

A lifeless Saints offense will continue to cap the ceiling, but Neal's Week 13 usage makes him a much more comfortable RB3 or Flex play for however long Kamara remains out.

7. Do the Packers Actually Have A No. 1 WR?

Christian Watson is getting usage we rarely see from a Matt LaFleur WR.

He's registered an 80+% route rate in four straight games. Watson hit that mark in only 34% of his games over his first three NFL seasons.

And he's dominating targets, drawing 17 total looks on a 33% share over the last two games. Watson has maintained a big 18.3-yard average target depth over the last four weeks. And he's seen seven red-zone targets.

Watson ranks 28th among WRs in expected PPR points per game over the last four weeks and 15th over the last two.

Trend Or Two-Game Blip?

I'm hesitant to believe that Watson will keep this hefty role going forward. He's never been a target dominator in the past, with just six total games with a 25+% target share before this latest stretch.

And he'll be contending with the returns of WRs Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden in the coming weeks. Both of those guys will primarily play in the slot, so they shouldn't impact Watson's playing time. But they'll add target competition.

Watson is most likely to be an upside WR3 the rest of the way. But that'd be a big win considering he was a waiver add in most leagues. And he has the potential to score as top-20 WR if he continues to operate as Green Bay's clear No. 1 target.

8. Steelers Backfield Shifts Again

Pittsburgh's backfield has been a projections nightmare all season.

There have been times when Warren looked like an every-down workhorse. There have been times when it looked like Warren was just an early-down grinder, with Gainwell dominating passing-game work.

Week 13 gave us something completely different: Warren and Gainwell essentially alternating series (with Johnson also mixing in every so often because of course). Fantasy Points’ Chris Wecht has the drive-by-drive snap rates:

The saving grace here might be QB Aaron Rodgers’ failing body forcing the Steelers to lean on the run game. Their -7.1% pass rate over expected last week was their lowest in a game started by Rodgers all season. It also came against the run-funnel Bills, so perhaps it was just a one-game blip.

The schedule won't help Pittsburgh’s RBs. It’s the third-toughest over the final four weeks of the fantasy season, including games against top-five RB defenses in Weeks 16 and 17.

I’m considering Warren a low-end RB2 and Gainwell a low-end RB3 for now. But I’d be lying if I told you I felt confident in anything about this backfield. Both Warren and Gainwell carry wide projection ranges each week.

Next Up

Week 14 Waiver Wire Pickups: Boost That Playoff Backfield

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Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.