Can He Overtake Stevenson?
The Patriots return Henderson and Stevenson. Round 7 pick Jam Miller shouldn’t challenge their roles.
Our projections put Henderson at a 39.5% carry share, just ahead of Stevenson’s 35.5%.
Stevenson’s 10 fumbles over the past two seasons -- seven in 2024 and three in 2025 -- could push more work toward Henderson. But it’s notable that HC Mike Vrabel didn’t alter Stevenson’s role after last year’s fumbles, which came across two early-season games: Week 3 and Week 5.
Henderson said he’s focused on his blocking and pass-catching this offseason, and that work could decide whether he earns a steadier role. He ranked 34th among 43 RBs with 30+ targets in yards per catch (6.4) and 34th in PFF pass-blocking grade last year, while Stevenson ranked top-5 in both.
A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs give the Patriots more answers in the passing game, and Stevenson should still command work out of the backfield. That makes it hard to project a large receiving role for Henderson. New England’s 18% RB target share last year already landed right near the 17.6% league average.
Pats Look Strong at Pass Catcher, O-line
Maye, Brown, Doubs, and Hunter Henry should keep defenses from loading up against the run.
The O-line also remains in good shape. New England returns LT Will Campbell, RT Morgan Moses, and RG Mike Onwenu, while 2025 LG Jared Wilson shifts to C, his college position. The lone change is at LG, where the Pats will try to get a healthy season from Alijah Vera-Tucker.
The Pats showed confidence by handing him a three-year deal with $21 million guaranteed, but Vera-Tucker has still missed 41 games over the past four seasons, including all of 2025.
The Pats added insurance with Utah OT Caleb Lomu at pick No. 28, though his profile leans more pass protector than run blocker.
Expect the Pats to Run Less
The Pats return OC Josh McDaniels.
Our projections have this unit’s run rate falling to 45.2% from 46.9% in 2025, driven by Drake Maye’s Year 2 breakout and the additions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs.
Stevenson’s return also figures to limit Henderson’s impact as a pass catcher. Our target share projections have Stevenson at 8.5%, just ahead of Henderson’s 8.0%.
Henderson's Upside Looks Intriguing
Henderson could still grow in his age-24 season and force the Patriots to shift more work his way. Otherwise, Henderson’s fantasy appeal hinges on big-play efficiency. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry and ranked third among 49 RBs with 100+ carries in share of yards from runs of 15+ yards.
That continued the explosive profile he showed at Ohio State, where he averaged 6.4 yards per carry for his career and 7.1 in his final season.
Henderson would regain an RB1 outlook if Stevenson misses time. We have him 17th among RBs in ceiling projection, though that doesn’t even assume a Stevenson injury.
Will he Remain Hyper Efficient?
If Henderson’s efficiency slips, he could settle in as a low-end RB2 or flex. His receiving and TD outlook already look shakier with Brown and Doubs joining the offense and Stevenson returning for goal-line work, and four of Henderson’s 10 rookie TDs came from 50+ yards, a rate that’ll be tough to repeat.
