Bottom Line

A measly 3 TDs kept Higbee from having a strong fantasy season last year. But he ranked top-9 among TEs in targets, catches, and yards.

With the Rams failing to significantly upgrade their pass-catching corps this offseason, Higbee could be in for a bunch of targets again in 2023.

He’s not exciting, but Higbee looks like a nice value pick in fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Higbee set career highs last year with 108 targets and 72 catches. His 620 yards were his second most among seven NFL seasons.
• Here’s where those marks ranked among all TEs last year:
  • fourth in targets
  • fifth in catches
  • ninth in yards
• Higbee scored just 3 TDs – tied for 19th at his position.
• He finished sixth among TEs in total PPR points and 14th in non-PPR points.
• He ranked 15th in PPR points per game and 23rd in non-PPR points per game.
• Higbee finished as a top-12 PPR TE in seven weeks. He ranked outside the top 20 eight times.
• He played the first eight games of the season with a healthy QB Matt Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp. He played most the final nine games without Stafford and Kupp. Here’s how his numbers compared:

What to Expect in 2023

• The Rams traded WR Allen Robinson, who saw 52 targets in 10 games last year, to the Steelers. Additions to the pass-catching corps:
  • Fifth-round WR Puka Nacua
  • WR Demarcus Robinson
  • fifth-round TE Davis Allen
  • TE Hunter Long
• WRs Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, and Ben Skowronek, and TE Brycen Hopkins return.
• Higbee’s starting job should be safe, and he has a chance to again claim a big target share.
• QB Matt Stafford is healthy and returns as the Rams’ starter.
• Higbee should be in for positive TD regression.
  • He scored on just 4.2% of his catches last year.
  • League-wide average TD rate for TEs is around 8.4%.
  • Higbee’s average entering last year was 7.3%.
  • Higbee’s 6.2 expected TDs last year ranked fifth among TEs.
• Higbee turned 30 in January. Our aging-curve research shows that TEs, on average, produce at 76% of their peak at age 30. That’s down from 86% at age 29.
• Higbee’s Pro Football Focus receiving grade sunk from 2021 to 2022. Last year’s mark ranked 21st song 32 qualifying TEs.
• But his yards per route run climbed from 1.19 in 2021 to 1.43 last year. That latter mark ranked 13th among 32 qualifying TEs.