Tyler Warren Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Warren delivered one of the position's best rookie seasons ever. His TE11 finish included 11.1 PPR points per game, 10th-most by a rookie TE in NFL history. And his TE3 ranking in expected points per game points to even more available opportunity.

Usage & Role

Warren ranked second among the Colts in targets (106), receptions (76), and receiving yards (817).

Warren averaged 6.2 targets per game on a 19.4% target share and posted 1.95 yards per route run, fourth-highest among 52 TEs with 30+ targets.

He actually saw slightly more targets per game after Jones went down, but the quality tanked. Warren’s catches and yards dipped:

Jones gave Warren quality targets while trusting the rookie as a reliable receiving option.

Warren’s receiving profile fits PPR formats well. His 5.9-yard average depth of target made him an easy option, and his 6.4 yards after catch per reception ranked fifth among TEs showed he can turn those short passes into meaningful gains.

Warren’s 78.4% catch rate through Jones’ 12 full games vs. 56.3% after he went down also point to efficiency upside if the QB can stay on the field all season. And the Colts passed at a higher than expected rate (3.1% pass rate over expected) before Jones went down.

That topped the Colts’ PROE rates for Steichen’s first two seasons, signaling more trust in Jones than previous Indy QBs. That could portend more passing opportunities and production going forward.

Efficiency & Regression

Warren led the team with 26 red-zone targets in 2025, according to Pro Football Focus, and tied for sixth among all TEs in end-zone targets (but turned just two of those seven into TDs).

The Colts also gave Warren six carries for the season, three of which came from inside the 5-yard line.

The one TD he added from that limited work isn’t enough to meaningfully alter his fantasy outlook, but it’s just another signal that the Colts want to get him the ball. And it aligns with his usage at Penn State.

Warren rushed 32 times and scored six times on the ground across five seasons with the Nittany Lions. Most of that came via his 26-218-4 rushing line in 2024.

We can’t project significant production for Warren in that area, but don’t be surprised if he adds a bonus TD or two near the goal line.

Projected Role & Competition

Pittman’s departure could send more work Warren’s way.

Pittman’s 19.7% total target share leaned heavily on work in the short-to-intermediate areas. That included a 24% share of targets in the range of 1-9 yards. Warren trailed him narrowly at 22.3% in that range and thus stands to benefit.

Josh Downs could also absorb some of those targets. He drew a team-high 27.8% target share in that range but also figures to work the middle of the field at least a bit less if his outside role grows.

Ashton Dulin projects as the No. 3 receiver after catching just five passes last year and 40 for his six-year career to date. (He missed all of 2023.) So expect limited challenges to roles of Warren, Downs, and Pierce.

Warren stands out as the Colts’ biggest threat over the middle.

Supporting Cast

That short-range role could become even more important if we get a limited Jones to open the season. A slower, less mobile QB may lean harder on quick throws and checkdowns.

Jones has also been a short-range passer for most of his career. He has ranked outside the top 20 in aDOT in five of six seasons in which he dropped back at least 300 times.

Paths To Ceiling

Warren already proved in his first year that he can handle a real role and produce. He enters his second season with a better understanding of the system, an obvious path to targets (with potential growth in that area), and a QB who trusts him.

He could climb into the position’s top 3, especially in PPR.

If Warren absorbs a meaningful chunk of Pittman’s vacated targets, keeps creating after the catch, and stays involved near the goal line, the weekly and season-long upside both look enticing.