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Draft Sharks Injury Predictor

By Kevin English | Updated on Fri, 17 May 2024 . 5:04 PM EDT

Draft Sharks Injury Guide:
Combining Comprehensive Injury Data Plus Machine Learning… All to Help You Win

You’re on the clock trying to decide between two players.

It looks to be a coin-flip decision… until you weigh the injury risk. 

You scan each player’s profile on your Draft War Room cheat sheet and notice their “projected games missed” prediction.  

One player comes in at two games missed… the other at five games… Your decision just got a lot easier.

You might be thinking, “Sure – but isn’t Draft Sharks just guessing at that ‘games missed’ number?... Like other websites?”

Hell no! 

 

Check out how we use a scientific method to weaponize injury data for our Draft War Room cheat sheet and Injury Guide

Obsessive First-Hand Data Collection… Analyzed Through over 1,000 Variables

First, we take the most comprehensive injury database publicly available, detailing injuries for every major NFL player over the last 30 years. (We’ve had NFL teams buy this injury data from us).

Our injury data doesn’t come from some unreliable, third-party feed. Our team uses a combination of video review and media reports to quickly and accurately record injuries.

Then we apply advanced machine learning that considers over 1,000 factors to define and track player injury trends. 

You end up with a model that solves for the “stickiest” factors to predict injury outcomes. Meaning, you've cracked the scientific code for predicting injuries. 

It’s impossible to predict every injury. But we CAN predict which players have a higher injury probability – and who’s likely to miss the most time this NFL season. We can also identify players more likely to be healthy for the entire year. 

We know because we've actually done it...

This tooled-up data then feeds several key features of the Draft Sharks Injury Guide:

Projected Games Missed

These are our projections of how many games a player will miss in the coming season, given an 80% confidence interval.

In fact:

This article from 2022 shows the tool’s power… with a strong hit rate on guys like Tua Tagovailoa, Allen Robinson, Zach Ertz, and others.

“Projected Games Missed” is also a key piece of Draft Sharks’ award-winning projections AND our Draft War Room cheat sheet

At bottom, the aim is to help you avoid injury busts – and highlight those with durable profiles. 

Career Injuries 

The raw number of injuries a player has sustained – even going back to college. You have the option to view injury dates, injury descriptions, and more.

Probability of Injury In the Season

This percentage shows the chance a player misses at least two quarters in a game over the course of a season.

Probability of Injury Per Game

This percentage shows the chance a player gets injured in any given game. 

Player Durability Score

Our Durability Score shows a player’s ability to play and produce through minor injuries. It’s on a 1-5 scale, with five being the most durable.

 

How Do Injuries Impact Your Draft Strategy?

For us, it's 1/17th of the equation. Here’s the reason:  

We’ve Built You a Systemic Approach To Drafting For TRUE Value

The Draft War Room is the only live-sync draft tool that monitors 17 crucial draft value indicators. 

One of those indicators accounts for a player’s injury risk.

Yes, that’s an important indicator… but not the only one we weigh when determining value.

Injury risk is just 1 of 17 value indicators in the Draft War Room.

  

Kevin English Author Image
Kevin English, Senior Analyst
Kevin brings 15 years of experience as a fantasy analyst and mid-stakes competitor across various formats (redraft, best ball, dynasty, DFS). His work has been featured on The Mercury News, Rotoworld, and FantasyPros.
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