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Can Aaron Jones be a difference maker in 2023?

By Jared Smola | Updated on Mon, 17 Jul 2023, 3:35 AM EDT
Aaron Jones Headshot

Packers RB Aaron Jones is about as reliable as they come for fantasy managers. Jones finished last season with six top-12 weekly finishes and two more inside the top-24. In total, Jones finished as an RB3 or better in 15 of his 17 games. Among 41 RBs who received 100+ carries in 2022, Jones ranked second in PFF rushing grade, ninth in elusive rating, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.20). There's a reason why he hasn't finished outside the top 12 overall RBs in PPR since 2018. However, there's a risk that streak comes to an end in 2023 with new QB Jordan Love under center. It's reasonable to expect the team will help Love by running the ball plenty, but that'll cut into Jones' production as a receiver out of the backfield. The Packers were fairly neutral in run-pass rate last year, though they did finish 18th in Pass Rate Over Expectation. If that drops any further with Love at the helm, Jones' fantasy ceiling will certainly take a hit. His effectiveness as a pass-catcher is already showing signs of decline, too. Of the 17 RBs who saw 50+ targets last year, Jones finished 13th in PFF receiving grade, 10th in yards per route run (1.25), and 14th in drop rate (9.2%). While not terrible, Jones declined in all three marks vs. 2021. So maybe he can bounce back in that department, but we're not expecting much. See where Jones lands in our current RB rankings.

Jared Smola Author Image
Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
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