Dynasty Prospect Profile: Josh Doctson
Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
(percentile rank among all WRs at the Combine since 1999, courtesy of mockdraftable.com):
40-yard dash: 4.50 (53rd percentile)
Vertical: 41” (95th percentile)
Broad: 10’11 (96th percentile)
3-cone: 6.84 seconds (67th percentile)
20-yard shuttle: 4.08 seconds (81st percentile)
A 3-star recruit out of high school, Doctson began his collegiate career at Wyoming. His 2011 campaign included a 3-43-1 line against TCU, where he’d transfer to the following year.
Doctson sat out the 2012 season due to NCAA eligibility rules and got off to a slow start in 2013. But after totaling just 9 grabs in his first 7 games for the Horned Frogs, he racked up 27 over his final 5. That stretch also included TDs in 3 of his last 4 outings.
Doctson actually led the the 2013 squad in catches and receiving yards, while finishing 2nd in TDs. TCU finished just 82nd in pass yards and 98th in pass TDs.
Doctson carried his late-season momentum into 2014, setting single-season school records in receiving yards and TDs. He accounted for 20% of the receptions, 24% of the receiving yards and 29.7% of the receiving scores for a much-improved TCU passing attack that ranked 7th in yards and 10th in TDs.
Doctson took another leap forward this past year. He broke his own records for yards and TDs and also set a TCU record in catches. He rattled off a stretch of 6 straight games with 129+ yards and 2+ TDs.
Doctson ranked 11th in the nation in receiving yards and 5th in TDs. Per Pro Football Focus, he led this year’s WR class in yards per route run (4.07). He was a unanimous 1st-Team All-American and a Biletnikoff Award (top WR) finalist.
This all despite missing the final 3 games of the season with a broken left wrist. Doctson averaged a ridiculous 7.9 catches, 132.7 yards and 1.4 TDs per game. If we look at just the 10 games in which he played, he accounted for 30% of his team's receptions, 35.7% of receiving yards and 45.2% of receiving TDs.
The wrist injury kept Doctson out of the Senior Bowl, but he was a full-go for the Combine in February.
Courtesy of DraftBreakdown.com
Games watched - Minnesota, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa St.
It doesn’t take much tape-watching to figure out that Doctson has elite ball skills. He has soft, sticky hands, impressive body control and innate timing to snatch the ball at its high point.
Doctson also displays the ability to make contested catches on low-thrown balls.
In other words, this dude has a massive catch radius and will be a welcomed target for his NFL QB.
Doctson needs to be good in those contested situations, though, because he doesn’t yet have the route-running skills to create much separation. He almost always has a defender on his hip.
Here, Doctson is unable to separate downfield from Minnesota CB Eric Murray, who’s expected to be no more than a mid-round pick in this year’s draft:
Doctson is much better against zone coverage, showing a good understanding of where to sit down to give his QB a throwing lane. Notice him throttle down in the back of the end zone to make the catch before running into the coverage of Texas Tech’s #40:
Full disclosure: I wrote the majority of Doctson’s scouting report before the Combine and wasn’t all that excited. Then he went to Indianapolis and blew it up, posting strong marks in the jump and agility drills. Doctson’s measurables put him in the 95th percentile among NFL WRs.
So here’s a guy with elite athleticism and college production — but uneven tape. Which do we trust?
I’m certainly not naive enough to believe my scouting skills are flawless, so I’m inclined to put more stock in the measurables and production.
I do have concerns with Doctson’s route running as he comes from a spread, college-style offense. He’s also an older prospect, so he might already be close to or at his ceiling.
But there’s little doubt that his athleticism and ball skills will translate to the next level. At minimum, he should emerge as a possession-type WR and red-zone weapon. If he can refine his route running and maximize that athleticism, Doctson will have the tools to emerge as a #1 WR for both his NFL and fantasy teams.