Dynasty Prospect Scouting Report: Matt Corral
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Corral didn’t participate in Combine testing because of the high-ankle sprain he suffered in the team’s bowl game. He also skipped such drills at his pro day. Player Profiler lists his high school 40-yard dash time at 4.80 seconds, a 65th percentile number among QBs that would give him a 54th-percentile speed score.
A 4-star recruit out of California, Corral landed at Ole Miss after a couple of false starts. He initially committed to USC but de-committed – at least in part – due to an altercation with a son of Wayne Gretzky that also helped lead him to transfer high schools for his senior year.
Corral then committed to Florida but ended that commitment as well after the Gators changed coaches. (That just might have been a shrewd move, as Dan Mullen – hired in 2018 – only made it to last season.)
At Mississippi, Corral appeared in 4 games as a true-freshman backup to Jordan Ta’amu, a light enough workload to allow him to take a redshirt. He opened 2019 as the starter but lost 2 games to a rib injury and then dealt with rotation at the position under a coach (Matt Luke) who got dumped at the end of the year.
Under HC Lane Kiffin in 2020, Corral finally settled in. He started all 10 games, ranking 2nd in the SEC in yards per pass attempt and completion rate, and leading all of FBS in total offense (384.3 yards per game).
With WR Elijah Moore and TE Kenny Yeboah gone to the NFL, Corral’s rate stats and per-game averages dipped in his final season, though he improved his TD-INT ratio from 2.1-1 in 2020 to 4-1. The Rebels QB still ranked 3rd in the conference in completion rate and 5th in yards per attempt and passer rating. Corral also earned 2nd-team All-SEC honors and finished 7th in Heisman voting.
Corral played in the team’s Sugar Bowl loss to Baylor but left in the 1st quarter with a high right ankle sprain.
One of the 1st things that stands out when you watch Corral is that Ole Miss’ offense under Kiffin leaned HEAVILY on the run-pass option. Nearly 100% of Corral’s snaps last season came from the shotgun. And a large number of them found him at least faking a handoff.
That’s far less meaningful in projecting his transition to the NFL today than it would have been just a few years ago. But it could still factor into how quickly his NFL coaches will feel comfy jamming Corral into the lineup.
Now to his play style, which reminds me of Carson Wentz. Corral despises giving up on a play, which can work to his detriment.
Here’s a good example of that mindset plus his impressive awareness.
Despite having his eyes downfield as the pocket closed up, Corral knew where to find his outlet and made the unconventional play.
Now let’s get to an example of his style backfiring.
It was 1st-and-10 in a non-desperate situation on a drive that was already in scoring position (and progressing further into it). But Corral – while escaping – tried to force something that wasn’t there and ended the possession.
In fantasy, we’ll welcome the INTs that come with such a playing style. But it’s not hard to envision his NFL coach trying to get Corral to work smarter in that area before giving him a starting job.
Most of Corral’s passing looks similar to this …
He looks quick in his reads, decisive and accurate enough with his throws. He played the system well, hitting receivers in stride and allowing them to run after the catch.
Corral doesn’t stand out among the top QB prospects in deep-ball efficiency. He trailed Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett – along with Day 2-3 prospects Bailey Zappe, Carson Strong and Dustin Crum – in both Pro Football Focus passing grade and adjusted completion rate on throws 20+ yards downfield. But it appears he’s just OK in that range, rather than deficient.
Finally, there’s the rushing. Corral topped 500 yards on the ground in each of his final 2 campaigns, even with sack yardage removed (per the college format).
Corral surely benefited from the RPO-heavy scheme, but he’s plenty mobile.
Just make sure you don’t overrate this aspect. Corral doesn’t look like a true runner, who’s going to amp up his fantasy production with ground yards and scores.
It seems fair to expect Dak Prescott-type rushing (though he might deliver less).
Prescott posted a Combine 40 time (4.78 seconds) similar to Corral’s last official time. Prescott ran for a lot more yardage than Corral in college, but averaged a more attainable 19.1 yards per game over his 1st 4 pro seasons (before the 2020 ankle injury).
Prescott’s 6 TDs in each of his 1st 3 years inflated his rushing production. But his role and performance in that area seem appropriate here. Early-career Aaron Rodgers or Daniel Jones would be fair as well.
The point: Corral can move enough to break ties in preseason fantasy projections. Just don’t count on his rushing vaulting his fantasy production.
On the passing side: He’s fine. According to Underdog’s Hayden Winks, Corral’s 2021 passing EPA (expected points added) rates just 44th percentile among all QBs drafted since 2005.
That context is worth keeping in mind. Corral looks relatively good among this year’s prospects. He’ll likely land at least among the top 4 as we rank these rookie QBs for dynasty drafting, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he winds up leading the class in fantasy scoring as a pro.
But that’s all relative to a lackluster class.
Corral has enough physical tools to start in the NFL, and his leadership ability has gotten plenty of media play. With development, he could be a useful fantasy QB.
As long as you don’t draft him expecting more than “useful,” you should be OK.