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Dynasty Rookie Draft Pick Tiers 2024

By Shane Hallam | Updated on Thu, 02 May 2024 . 9:11 AM EDT
Working deals on rookie draft picks could set you up to find the next Jayden Reed in your dynasty league.

 

Gain an Edge in Dynasty Rookie Draft Prep

Looking at rookie pick tiers can help you move into position to maximize the rookie draft in your dynasty league.

If your rookie pick sits the top of a tier, you might be able to move down and gain another piece or two without losing player value.

You can also cheaply improve the return on your draft picks by trading up a few picks to a higher tier.

Take a look at where the tiers stand as well as what players and positions you can expect to fall within these ranges.

Also, be sure to check out our Dynasty Rookie Rankings to go even more in depth.

 

Tier 1: Elite and Safe

1.01-1.03

  • Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
  • Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
  • Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals

A top 3 pick secures an elite player who will contribute immediately.

Williams offers 4,000-yard passing upside with the weapons he has around him. 

Throwing to D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, and Rome Odunze -- with D’Andre Swift coming out of the backfield -- is excellent.   

Daniels’ legs give him a Justin Fields-type floor with a Lamar Jackson ceiling. 

Under Kliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray averaged nearly 7 rushes per game. Expect the same from Daniels.

Harrison Jr. boasts the best landing spot among the top WRs with little competition and Kyler Murray throwing him passes. The primary focus of the offense will be getting the ball in Harrison’s hands.   

The entire tier can be plugged into your starting lineup with upside to end the season top-12 at their position. 

 

Tier 2: Instant Difference Makers

1.04-1.07

  • Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
  • Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
  • JJ McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
  • Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

This tier holds difference makers at the most important superflex positions: QB and WR.

All four earned top 10 draft capital. That means real chances to succeed.

Nabers' skill set places him atop the Giants' depth chart. He should see heavy target share and be schemed touches.

Odunze will open the year as the third WR for the Bears behind D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. But, he will likely replace Allen after this season. 

Being tied to Caleb Williams on a pass-first offense for his career gives Odunze a ton of potential.

QB Situation Matters

McCarthy was the fifth QB off the board in the NFL Draft, but he boasts the best overall situation. 

Obviously having the best WR in the league in Justin Jefferson is a huge boost. Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson also help.

The blocking will be better than any other rookie QB. Per PFF, the Vikings ranked second in pass blocking last season. 

This combination of weapons and blocking makes McCarthy likely to succeed, even if he isn’t as talented as the QBs selected in front of him.

The Patriots situation is less rosy for Maye, but they are building the infrastructure for his success. They drafted two WRs and two O-linemen among the top 110 picks of the draft. 

Jacoby Brissett and Sam Darnold may start the season. But McCarthy and Maye will not be held back for long.

Moving up into this tier costs plenty, but the safety of the talent and situation combination makes it worthwhile.

 

Tier 3: Dynamic Weapons

1.08-1.12

  • Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
  • Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
  • Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
  • Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills

Swinging for upside identifies this tier. Dynamic athletes with high draft capital often pay dividends in the right situation.

The Chiefs traded up to nab Worthy. His early breakout in college (96th-percentile breakout age) bodes well for success in Andy Reid’s offense.

Thomas and Coleman carry a bit more risk.

Both vaulted up draft boards in their final seasons. But each can become the top WR for a team with an effective QB.

Bowers' landing spot was less than ideal after the Raiders had just drafted Michael Mayer the year before. But, as a slot weapon instead of an inline TE, he should see fewer blocking assignments and more pass routes.

If your team needs RB help badly, Brooks is the best option in a poor RB group.

The Panthers invested a second-round pick in Brooks, and he should have no trouble beating out Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders.

If Brooks can prove he is healthy after a November ACL tear, he will climb higher in the tier. 

Beware of Pitfalls 

Last season, Quentin Johnston and Zach Charbonnet were drafted in this range. If talent or situation don’t allow for the player to produce as a rookie, they will lose value quickly.

Thankfully, the situations on whole are better this year. All five of these players should earn a starting role and playing time by Week 1. This increases the opportunity of avoiding a bust.

Use our Rookie Prospect Guide to evaluate the talents above to avoid this potential pitfall.

 

Tier 4: Red Flags

2.01-2.07

  • Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
  • Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
  • Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers
  • Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers
  • Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons
  • Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts
  • Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

This tier has a wide range of talents and situations from first round WRs and QBs to players that fell in the NFL Draft.

All of the players look attractive on paper, but boast red flags. 

Nix and Penix were taken higher than anticipated but have their issues. Penix will be sitting behind Kirk Cousins for some time. Nix may start immediately, but the Broncos are bereft of weapons. 

Combine that with both QBs being overdrafted based on their talent and each has a decent chance to bust.

Pearsall and Legette were surprise first-round selections, and they certainly have the athleticism to be productive in fantasy. But, their advanced age and lack of production before 2023 are concerning.

Draft Falls

McConkey, Mitchell, and Benson all had first-round buzz at one point.

McConkey landed with an ideal QB in Justin Herbert. But playing WR in Jim Harbaugh's and Greg Roman’s run-first offense limits his ceiling.

Mitchell and Benson may not get the chance to produce much early due to their falls in the draft.

Don't move down from Tier 3 to Tier 4 unless you have a strong QB need.

 

Tier 5: Chasing Upside

2.08-3.02

  • Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots
  • Malachi Corley, WR, New York Jets
  • Jermaine Burton, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
  • Roman Wilson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos
  • Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams
  • MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers

This tier includes WRs with solid draft capital, RBs in bad situations, and some solid predraft profiles that fell.

Ultimately, no player in this tier is guaranteed any type of rookie production. 

Some situations -- like Polk in New England or Wilson in Pittsburgh -- provide a good opportunity for playing time.

But, those rookies aren't guaranteed to beat out the mediocre veterans in front of them.

Corum and Lloyd will sit behind Kyren Williams and Josh Jacobs respectively.

Ultimately, moving up from this tier into Tier 4 is the best move.

There could be a few gems found here, though.

Rashee Rice and Jayden Reed had ADPs in this tier last year. But they mixed in with busts such as Cedric Tillman and Israel Abanikanda.

 

Tier 6: Lottery Tickets

3.03-3.12

  • Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Javon Baker, WR, New England Patriots
  • Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins
  • Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
  • Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills
  • Devontez Walker, WR, Baltimore Ravens
  • Bucky Irving, RB, Washington Commanders
  • Luke McCaffrey, WR, Washington Commanders
  • Audric Estime, RB, Denver Broncos
  • Isaac Guerendo, RB, San Francisco 49ers

By this point in a rookie draft, you're taking a lottery ticket to stash.

There are plenty of talented RBs who fell to Day 3, such as Wright, Vidal, Irving, Estime, and Guerendo. Any could emerge as a solid producer if given the chance.

The WRs may all need an injury or impressive camp to crack their respective lineups.

Hold your nose and take your favorite.

 

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Shane Hallam Author Image
Shane Hallam, Writer
Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, IDP, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.
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