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Dynasty Rookie Draft Pick Tiers 2024

By Shane Hallam 8:32pm EST 1/1/24

Gain an Edge in Dynasty Rookie Draft Preparation

Looking early at rookie pick tiers can help you move into position to maximize the rookie draft in your dynasty league.

If you want to get a first-round WR with elite potential, this will help you learn where you need to pick and how to get there.

If your superflex team needs a QB, get in position before the rest of your league figures out where those players will go.

Take a look at where the tiers stand right now, and what players and positions you can expect to fall within these ranges. 

 

Tier 1: Elite and Safe

1.01

Right now, the 1.01 in superflex stands as a tier of its own for USC QB Caleb Williams.

He'll undoubtedly be selected first overall in the NFL Draft, whether it’s the Bears or a team that trades up.

Williams has the arm strength and ball placement to hit every throw. He will have a bit more rushing upside in the NFL than you might expect from his final-year numbers.

Don't Underrate Williams' Rushing Ability

Running for only 142 yards on 97 carries looks poor, but Williams had 11 TDs and took 33 sacks. That yardage comes off a QB's rushing total in college.

Without that removal, Pro Football Focus credits Williams with 356 rushing yards. That followed 624 in 2022 and 559 in 2021.

Trade down and you’re missing out on a Joe Burrow-type fantasy QB. That would be a mistake. The safety of Williams combined with his upside makes him a slam dunk 1.01.

 

Tier 2: Exceptional Talents

1.02-1.05

This tier holds exceptional talents at QB and WR who can be instant difference-makers for your team.

There will be debate about taking Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at the top of even superflex drafts. He profiles as a Ja’Marr Chase-level prospect with the production and athleticism. He’ll be the clear 1.01 in 1-QB leagues. 

The consistency of Harrison being mocked among the top three NFL Draft picks is rare for a WR. But, there is another WR in this tier.

LSU’s Malik Nabers isn’t far behind Harrison Jr. So if you ended up with the 1.02 in your 1-QB drafts, don’t be sad. 

He sports similar athleticism and production but brings less polish. Nabers has the talent to be a fantasy WR1 pretty quickly.

The Other Top QBs

If you need to add a young, dynamic QB to the fold, you’ll need a top-five pick. North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels offer ultimate upside.

Media have flirted with Maye challenging Williams to be the top NFL Draft pick, but his 2023 didn’t quite live up to expectations. Maye still profiles as a top-10 NFL Draft pick with a 6 '4, 230-pound frame. His rushing ability will also be coveted.

Think Daniel Jones with actual arm talent.

Daniels draws Lamar Jackson comps after an outstanding, Heisman-winning season.

Some rankings may not place Daniels in this tier, but the potential for a 1,000-yard rushing season from a QB will be tempting. He will continue to move up media boards until settling here. 

Moving up into the top 5 now can be a sneaky move to get an elite player before your opponents figure out exactly how the tiers break down.

Even if you have to give up a future 2nd to move up from the 1.07 to the 1.04, for example, it will be worth it.

 

Tier 3: First-Round WRs and a TE

1.06-1.10

The talent and depth of this WR class is all you will hear about over the next four months. The third tier will be determined by draft landing for these WRs:

  • Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State
  • Troy Franklin, Oregon
  • Rome Odunze, Washington
  • Xavier Worthy, Texas
  • Keon Coleman, Florida State
  • Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
  • Adonai Mitchell, Texas

One or two of these WRs could return to school and damage the list. At least four of these WRs should settle into this tier, though.

The Difference Maker at TE

There is also one elite TE in the class: Georgia’s Brock Bowers

He will be what everyone thought Kyle Pitts would be.

Bowers is better with the ball in his hands than Pitts. He's better on screens and slants, averaging 8.5 yards after catch per reception for his college career vs. Pitts' 5.4. Bowers even carried 19 times for 193 yards and 5 TDs.

If you need a QB, put out a feeler to move up from this tier to the 1.04 or 1.05.

But if you can’t move up, be comfortable residing in this tier.

It might even make sense to move down within this tier -- from, say, the 1.06 to the 1.10 -- potentially adding a late second-round pick without losing value in your Round 1 WR/TE.

 

Tier 4: Dart-Throw RBs

1.11-2.02

In most rookie drafts, a few RBs are off the board by now. But that doesn't look likely for this iffy RB class.

There's no Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. But a few Day 2 RBs could provide fantasy value in good situations.

There’s a talent gap between the aforementioned WRs and these RBs. But these RBs could end up with Day 2 capital and land in this range:

  • TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State
  • Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
  • Blake Corum, Michigan
  • Trey Benson, Florida State
  • Audric Estime, Notre Dame
  • Bucky Irving, Oregon

De’Von Achane rose to this range after landing in Round 3 with an upside offense. There's likely to be a RB or two who makes a similar move this year.

If you're picking mid-first, with no second-rounder, and coveting a young RB, consider moving down into this range and potentially adding a 2025 first.

 

Tier 5: Chasing Draft Capital

2.03-2.07

There are always players who go higher or lower in the NFL Draft than expected. 

Jonathan Mingo, Rashee Rice, and Will Levis fell into this range of rookie drafts last season: the WRs because they went earlier than expected, and Levis because he went later.

The rest of this year’s QB class will likely settle into this tier due to the need in superflex. Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix are likely second-round picks who should go in this range of rookie drafts.

Outside of the QBs, it will come down to where the players are drafted. A surprise WR or RB going in Round 2 of the NFL Draft will end up in this tier. 

 

Tier 6: The Outliers

2.08-2.12

Outlier profiles that need some luck to break out find themselves settling into this tier. But watch out for landmines.

Tank Dell and Jayden Reed crushed it from this range in 2023

Zach Evans and Cedric Tillman went silent and have already tanked their dynasty values.

If you have a pick within this tier, it’s worth digging into rookie profiles during the offseason to find your favorites.

  

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