Show Navigation
Show Menu

Fantasy Impact: Andrew Luck's retirement

By Jared Smola 11:08pm EDT 8/24/19

The Andrew Luck retirement news is still too fresh for me to put my thoughts into words. So let’s do what we do best and talk numbers. Here’s my initial take on the fantasy impact of this bomb …

Jacoby Brissett

We’ve seen Brissett in this spot before. When Luck missed the entire 2017 season with his shoulder trouble, Brissett replaced QB Scott Tolzien late in Week 1 and started the final 15 games.

He finished that year 276-of-469 (58.8%) for 3,098 yards (6.6 YPA), 13 TDs and 7 INTs. The 2017 Colts ran it on 48.1% of their offensive snaps — the 6th highest run rate in the league. So Brissett ranked just 20th in pass attempts. He finished 22nd in passing yards and 26th in TDs.

The volume wasn’t great. And the efficiency wasn’t, either. Among 29 QBs with 300+ pass attempts in 2017, Brissett ranked 28th in completion rate and 23rd in yards per attempt. He finished 25th in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades.

Brissett was a 3rd-round pick back in 2016 after completing 59.9% of his passes and averaging 6.8 yards per attempt in 2 seasons as North Carolina State’s starter. While the overall sample is still relatively small, everything points to Brissett being a backup-caliber NFL QB.

The good news is he takes over the starting job on a loaded offense. He’ll be working behind 1 of the league’s best offensive lines and with a strong group of weapons.

Brissett also brings some rushing ability. He cranked out 899 yards and 9 TDs on the ground over those 2 seasons at N.C. State. And he posted a 63-260-4 rushing line in 2017. That propped him to a QB22 finish in fantasy points.

The rushing ability and supporting cast could make Brissett a spot starter this season. But he’s not worth rostering outside of 2-QB leagues and deep 1-QB setups.

T.Y. Hilton

Hilton has finished 19th, 11th, 5th and 14th among WRs in PPR points in Luck’s last 4 healthy seasons.

In 2017 with Brissett? 27th.

Hilton led the Colts with 109 targets that year — a nice 22.4% share. But that was his lowest total since his rookie season — a result of the Colts going so run heavy.

And Hilton managed to corral just 52.9% of those targets. That catch rate was the 2nd lowest mark of his career and ranked 69th among 84 WRs with 100+ targets. Hilton did average a big 16.9 yards per catch. But he also set a career low with just 4 TDs.

Hilton has reportedly had the best training camp of his career this summer and will remain the top option in this passing game. But the QB downgrade lowers his weekly and season-long ceiling.

Hilton sunk from WR13 to WR19 in our PPR rankings.

Jack Doyle

Here’s 1 guy who enjoyed 2017 with Brissett. Doyle finished just behind Hilton that year with 108 targets. Only 4 TEs saw more. Doyle also led the Colts and finished 2nd among all TEs with 80 receptions. That helped him to a TE6 PPR finish.

Doyle’s efficiency was mediocre with Brissett, though. He posted a 74.1% catch rate but a sluggish 8.6 yards per catch. Among 32 TEs with 40+ targets in 2017, Doyle ranked 25th in yards per target — although he did finish up at 8th in yards per route run.

We’ll see if Doyle and Brissett still have chemistry from that 2017 campaign. But that 2017 squad had guys like the Colts are more loaded with pass-catchers now with guys like Donte Moncrief, Kamar Aiken and Chester Rogers behind Hilton and Doyle on the target totem pole. They’ve since added Eric Ebron, Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell.

So we’re not expecting Doyle to see anywhere close to the type of volume he saw 2 years ago. He remains just a mid-range TE2.

Eric Ebron

Brissett and Ebron connected for a 12-yard TD in the 2nd preseason game. But that’s about all we can say for the rapport between those 2. Ebron was still in Detroit in 2017.

35% of Ebron’s PPR production last year came from TDs. His scoring chances figure to take a big dip with the downgrade from Luck to Brissett. So Ebron’s fantasy value takes a big dip.

He dropped from TE8 in our PPR rankings to TE14.

Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell

We liked these guys as upside picks in the double digit rounds of fantasy drafts with a healthy Luck. Now tied to a questionable QB, neither guy is a recommended late-round target.

Funchess has at least spent the offseason working with Brissett. Campbell has missed the majority of August with hamstring trouble.

Marlon Mack

We had the Colts projected as 1 of the league’s pass-heaviest offense before Luck’s retirement. We now have them at 56% pass, which would have ranked 20th last year.

That, of course, means more carries for Mack. Volume trumps all in fantasy football, so it’s not insignificant.

But that’s where the good news ends. Mack will face more stacked boxes without Luck threatening defenses, which figures to ding his yards per carry. And his scoring chances will likely take a dive after he ranked top 9 league-wide in both carries inside the 10- and 5-yard lines last year.

Plus, if the Colts are trailing more often with Brissett under center, it could mean less time on the field for Mack and more for pass-catching RB Nyheim Hines.

Although we added a handful of carries to Mack’s projections, he sunk from 20th to 25th in our PPR RB rankings.

Related Fantasy Football

2023 NFL Free Agency Preview: QBs

2023 NFL Free Agency Preview: QBs

7:43am EST 12/28/22

Lamar Jackson doesn't have a contract for 2023. Could that plus his knee injury create a buying window in your dynasty league? He leads a list of 12 QBs you'll want to be aware of heading into the offseason ...

Read More »
NFL Week 16 Preview: Fantasy Football Podcast

NFL Week 16 Preview: Fantasy Football Podcast

3:42pm EST 12/22/22

Weather and injuries are playing LARGE roles in who you should set your playoff lineups ...

Read More »
NFL Week 15 Recap Fantasy Football Podcast

NFL Week 15 Recap Fantasy Football Podcast

2:54pm EST 12/19/22

Many things stranger than Saquon Barkley's rebound have happened in NFL Week 15. Let's discuss which ones should alter your plans in the fantasy football playoffs ...

Read More »
NFL Week 15 Preview: Fantasy Football Podcast

NFL Week 15 Preview: Fantasy Football Podcast

6:18pm EST 12/15/22

Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa or Tom Brady? Nick Chubb, Isiah Pacheco or J.K. Dobbins? It's fantasy football playoffs time. Let's get those lineups set ...

Read More »
NFL Week 14 Recap Fantasy Football Podcast

NFL Week 14 Recap Fantasy Football Podcast

2:41pm EST 12/12/22

What does your QB's Week 14 performance say about his outlook for the fantasy football playoffs? Who should you target on waivers this week? And who gets the scariest upcoming matchups?

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentNFL DFS Showdown Lineup Picks: Colts-Cowboys

NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Picks: Colts-Cowboys

4:26pm EST 12/4/22

Who will be the top DFS value plays when Jonathan Taylor runs into Dak Prescott and the Cowboys tonight?

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentDFS Showdown Lineup Picks: Steelers-Colts

DFS Showdown Lineup Picks: Steelers-Colts

4:24pm EST 11/28/22

Is there sneaky offensive value in this ugly offensive matchup?

Read More »
Dominate your Fantasy League with
the Ultimate Tool Stack
In the heat of a draft, you want as much intel as possible. The key is integrating that into one simple, powerful tool.
Dominate your Fantasy League with
the Ultimate Tool Stack
In the heat of a draft, you want as much intel as possible. The key is integrating that into one simple, powerful tool.
3D Projections

3D Projections

3D Projections: True Dimension of Every Player’s Potential

Based on our award-winning projections, an axis of data points give insights far deeper than a ranking

View Our Accuracy Awards View Our Accuracy Awards »

Advice Draft Strategy

Advice That’s Actionable on Draft Day

Round-by-Round Draft Strategy Guides, Sleepers, Undervalued Players, Busts and Handcuffs

3D Projections

Draft War Room

Draft War Room: Intel Turned Into Killer Picks

Command your entire draft with a dynamic tool synced to your league. Updating and adapting in real time.

3D Projections

Keep Dominating Throughout The Season

Quickly find the free-agent gems, pull the trigger on the perfect trade & make the right start/sit decisions.

Keep Dominating
Draft Sharks

$6/month thereafter, billed semi-annually, one-click cancel anytime.

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play