Fantasy Football Redraft

Fantasy Takeaways from Week 13 Usage

By Jared Smola 9:24pm EST 12/6/22

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Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals had a Week 13 bye.

Atlanta Falcons

RB snap rates:

Tyler Allgeier - 52%
Cordarrelle Patterson - 46%
Caleb Huntley - 9%

Route rates:

Tyler Allgeier - 48%
Cordarrelle Patterson - 44%
Caleb Huntley - 0%

Drake London - 88%
Olamide Zaccheaus - 88%
Damiere Byrd - 48%
KhaDarel Hodge - 8%

Anthony Firkser - 48%
Parker Hesse - 20%
MyCole Pruitt -20%

Takeaways:

• A week after spiking to a 62% route rate and 5 targets, Patterson went target-less on a 44% route rate in this one.
• No change to London’s playing time. He just happened to draw 12 targets for a massive 50% share. He saw 4 targets on a 16% share in Week 12 (the first game without TE Kyle Pitts) and hadn’t topped 7 targets in a game since Week 2.

Baltimore Ravens

RB snap rates:

Kenyan Drake - 47%
Gus Edwards - 24%
Justice Hill - 24%

Route rates:

Kenyan Drake - 32%
Justice Hill - 24%
Gus Edwards - 14%

Devin Duvernay - 96%
Demarcus Robinson - 84%
DeSean Jackson - 42%
James Proche - 22%

Mark Andrews - 88%
Isaiah Likely - 32%
Josh Oliver - 14%

Takeaways:

• So much for Edwards being locked in as Baltimore’s lead back. He was out-carried 7 to 6 and out-targeted 3 to 0 by Drake.

Buffalo Bills

RB snap rates:

Devin Singletary - 44%
James Cook - 43%
Nyheim Hines - 31%

Routes rates:

James Cook - 38%
Devin Singletary - 35%
Nyheim Hines - 28%

Gabriel Davis - 90%
Stefon Diggs - 88%
Isaiah McKenzie - 70%
Khalil Shakir - 18%
John Brown - 10%

Dawson Knox - 88%
Tommy Sweeney - 13%

Takeaways:

• Cook set season highs in snap rate, carries (14) and targets (6). He was involved from the start, out-carrying Singletary 8 to 5 and out-targeting him 3 to 1 in the 1st half. Don’t bank on the rookie pulling away as Buffalo’s feature back – and it’s also worth noting that Hines got increased playing time in this one. But I expect Cook to at least lead Bills RBs in targets the rest of the way. We’ll see exactly how carries are divvied.
• McKenzie followed his 73% route rate and 24% target share on Thanksgiving with a 70% route rate and 15% target share in this one.
• Knox has run 77 routes over the past 2 weeks … and drawn 3 targets.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers had a Week 13 bye.

Chicago Bears

RB snap rates:

David Montgomery - 77%
Darrynton Evans - 25%
Trestan Ebner - 2%

Route rates:

David Montgomery - 63%
Darrynton Evans - 27%
Trestan Ebner - 0%

Chase Claypool - 80%
Dante Pettis - 77%
Equanimeous St. Brown - 67%
Byron Pringle - 37%
N’Keal Harry - 10%
Velus jones - 7%

Cole Kmet - 93%
Ryan Griffin - 20%

Takeaways:

• The Bears called just 3 designed runs for QB Justin Fields in this one – presumably because of his shoulder injury. He’d averaged 9 designed runs over his previous 5 games. The good news is that Fields should be healthier coming out of the Week 14 bye.
• Claypool finished with just 5-28-0 but posted a strong route rate and drew 6 targets (24% share).
• In the first game of the season without WR Darnell Mooney, Kmet led the Bears in routes and targets (7, 28% share).

Cincinnati Bengals

RB snap rates:

Samaje Perine - 83%
Trayveon Williams - 15%
Chris Evans - 3%

Route rates:

Samaje Perine - 52%
Trayveon Williams - 14%
Chris Evans - 5%

Tee Higgins - 98%
Ja’Marr Chase - 93%
Tyler Boyd - 90%
Stanley Morgan - 7%
Trenton Irwin - 5%

Mitchell Wilcox - 64%
Devin Asiasi - 19%
Hayden Hurst - 14%

Takeaways:

• Chase returned from his hip injury to a full-time role, finishing with a 7-97-0 line on a team-high 8 targets (26% share).

Cleveland Browns

RB snap rates:

Nick Chubb - 51%
Kareem Hunt - 38%
Jerome Ford - 11%

Route rates:

Kareem Hunt - 54%
Nick Chubb - 42%
Jerome Ford - 0%

Amari Cooper - 100%
Donovan Peoples-Jones - 96%
Demetric Felton - 67%
David Bell - 8% (injured)
Anthony Schwartz - 4% (injured)

Harrison Bryant - 67%
Pharaoh Brown - 38%

Takeaways:

• Not much encouraging to take away from QB Deshaun Watson’s Browns debut. But Cooper did draw 9 targets for a huge 41% share.

Dallas Cowboys

RB snap rates:

Ezekiel Elliott - 56%
Tony Pollard - 41%
Malik Davis - 4%

Route rates:

Ezekiel Elliott - 52%
Tony Pollard - 42%
Malik Davis - 0%

Noah Brown - 91%
CeeDee Lamb - 88%
Michael Gallup - 79%
Jalen Tolbert - 12%

Dalton Schultz - 91%
Jake Ferguson - 21%
Peyton Hendershot - 9%

Takeaways:

• RB opportunities over the last 3 weeks:
  • Elliott - 48 carries, 5 targets
  • Pollard - 45 carries, 11 targets
• Gallup has totaled 15 targets on a 25% share over the past 2 weeks.

Denver Broncos

RB snap rates:

Latavius Murray - 68%
Mike Boone - 23%
Marlon Mack - 9%

Route rates:

Latavius Murray - 68%
Mike Boone - 23%
Marlon Mack - 9%

Kendall Hinton - 78%
Brandon Johnson - 56%
Jerry Jeudy - 41%
Courtland Sutton - 37% (injured)
Montrell Washington - 15%
Jalen Virgil - 11%

Greg Dulcich - 81%
Eric Saubert - 41%
Eric Tomlinson - 22%

Takeaways:

• Murray maintained strong usage despite Boone’s return, handling 17 of 25 RB carries (68%) and drawing 4 targets (18% share).
• Bad news: Jeudy was limited to a 41% route rate in his return from that ankle injury. Good news: He drew 4 targets on his 11 routes. We’ll keep an eye on his practice participation, but he should be at least closer to a full-time role in Week 14.
• Dulcich is the perfect example of why tracking usage matters. He’d been posting strong route rates but not getting targets. That changed in this one, with his 81% route rate leading to 8 targets (36% share). Dulcich is a strong usage bet going forward, although Denver’s moribund offense still adds risk to his fantasy profile.

Detroit Lions

RB snap rates:

D’Andre Swift - 51%
Jamaal Williams - 30%
Justin Jackson - 21%

Route rates:

D’Andre Swift - 51%
Justin Jackson - 24%
Jamaal Williams - 20%

D.J. Chark - 93%
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 91%
Josh Reynolds - 78%
Kalif Raymond - 22%
Jameson Williams - 4%

Shane Zylstra - 29%
James Mitchell - 27%
Brock Wright - 27%

Takeaways:

• Turns out Swift being removed from last week’s injury report actually mattered. This was his highest snap rate since Week 8, and his 14 carries were his most since Week 1. I’m not expecting Swift’s role to grow significantly from here, but I do think it at least sticks in this range the rest of the way.
• Williams played 8 snaps and ran 2 routes in his NFL debut. He’s obviously not a Week 14 fantasy option – and it seems unlikely he’ll be a bankable play at any point the rest of this season.

Green Bay Packers

RB snap rates:

A.J. Dillon - 68%
Aaron Jones - 38% (injured)
Patrick Taylor - 9%

Route rates:

A.J. Dillon - 63%
Aaron Jones - 34% (injured)
Patrick Taylor - 6%

Allen Lazard - 97%
Christian Watson - 94%
Randall Cobb - 43%
Samori Toure - 29%
Sammy Watkins - 9%

Robert Tonyan - 51%
Marcedes Lewis - 26%
Josiah Deguara - 17%

Takeaways:

• Watson’s TD pace is obviously absurd. But he’s registered a 78% route rate in 4 straight, including 89% and 94% marks the past 2 weeks. And he’s totaled 26 targets on a 23% share across Green Bay’s last 4 games.
• Lazard has compiled 24 targets (21% share) over the last 4, with nearly half of those targets come in Week 11.

Houston Texans

RB snap rates:

Dameon Pierce - 72%
Dare Ogunbowale - 22%
Eno Benjamin - 6%

Route rates:

Dameon Pierce - 48%
Dare Ogunbowale - 26%
Eno Benjamin - 7%

Phillip Dorsett - 81%
Nico Collins - 74%
Chris Moore - 45%
Amari Rodgers - 24%

Jordan Akins - 60%
Teagan Quitoriano - 50%
Brevin Jordan - 33%

Takeaways:

• Pierce got back to his usual, strong playing time in this one. He handled 18 of 20 RB carries (90%) and saw 3 targets (8% share).
• Collins has racked up 36 targets on a 24% share over the past 4 weeks. Unfortunately, he’s caught just 53% of them and averaged 9.3 yards per catch.

Indianapolis Colts

RB snap rates:

Jonathan Taylor - 82%
Deon Jackson - 11%
Zack Moss - 7%

Route rates:

Jonathan Taylor - 64%
Deon Jackson - 10%
Zack Moss - 2%

Michael Pittman - 100%
Parris Campbell - 81%
Alec Pierce - 76%
Ashton Dulin - 24%
Michael Strachan - 5%

Kylen Granson - 52%
Jelani Woods - 29%
Mo Alie-Cox - 24%

Takeaways:

• Despite his big Week 12, Woods was shoved right back into a committee, finishing with 2 catches on 4 targets for 28 yards.

Jacksonville Jaguars

RB snap rates:

Travis Etienne - 88%
Snoop Conner - 7%
JaMycal Hasty - 5%

Route rates:

Travis Etienne - 68%
Snoop Conner - 8%
JaMycal Hasty - 5%

Christian Kirk - 85%
Zay Jones - 85%
Marvin Jones - 70%
Tim Jones - 18%
Jamal Agnew - 18%

Evan Engram - 83%
Dan Arnold - 15%
Chris Manhertz - 15%
Luke Farrell - 8%

Takeaways:

• Etienne was game-scripted out of this one, but that foot injury didn’t limit his playing time. In fact, this was a season-high snap rate. He handled 13 of 14 RB carries (93%) and drew 3 targets (9%).
• Like Greg Dulcich, Engram’s strong route rates translated to targets (7, 21% share) and fantasy points (5-30-1) in this one.

Kansas City Chiefs

RB snap rates:

Jerick McKinnon - 47%
Isiah Pacheco - 45%
Ronald Jones - 5%

Route rates:

Jerick McKinnon - 44%
Isiah Pacheco - 31%
Ronald Jones - 9%

JuJu Smith-Schuster - 81%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 63%
Justin Watson - 53%
Skyy Moore - 31%

Travis Kelce - 88%
Noah Gray - 56%
Jody Fortson - 22%

Takeaways:

• As our Matt Schauf pointed out, Kansas City’s pass rate is noticeably down over the past 4 weeks.
• That’d seemingly be good news for Pacheco if it continues (which I’m not sure it will). Pacheco has handled 67 of 86 RB carries (78%) over the last 4 games.
• He didn’t hit in the box score, but Smith-Schuster at least got back to his usual playing time after being limited last week.

Las Vegas Raiders

RB snap rates:

Josh Jacobs - 75%
Ameer Abdullah - 20%
Zamir White - 7%

Route rates:

Josh Jacobs - 50%
Ameer Abdullah - 31%
Zamir White - 6%

Davante Adams - 100%
Mack Hollins - 100%
Keelan Cole - 72%
D.J. Turner - 3%

Foster Moreau - 72%
Jacob Hollister - 9%

Takeaways:

• With WR Hunter Renfrow and TE Darren Waller out the past 4 games, Hollins has drawn a 21% target share, averaging 7.3 targets, 4.3 catches, 42 yards and .3 TDs.

Los Angeles Chargers

RB snap rates:

Austin Ekeler - 59%
Joshua Kelley - 43%

Route rates:

Austin Ekeler - 52%
Joshua Kelley - 31%

Keenan Allen - 98%
Josh Palmer - 97%
DeAndre Carter - 72%
Michael Bandy - 19%

Gerald Everett - 62%
Stone Smartt - 22%
Tre McKitty - 12%

Takeaways:

• Kelley continues to look like the clear-cut Ekeler handcuff.
• Everett popped for a nice 5-80 line on 6 targets (13% share). But the route rate was underwhelming, as it’s been for much of the season. He remains a volatile fantasy play.

Los Angeles Rams

RB snap rates:

Cam Akers - 72%
Kyren Williams - 28%

Route rates:

Cam Akers - 51%
Kyren Williams - 30%

Van Jefferson - 100%
Ben Skowronek - 84%
Tutu Atwell - 49%
Brandon Powell - 32%
Austin Trammell - 24%

Tyler Higbee - 54%
Brycen Hopkins - 19%

Takeaways:

• After Williams soaked up 71% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps in Week 12, it was Akers’ turn as backfield leader in this one. He out-carried Williams 17 to 3, while both guys saw 1 target. That makes Akers the guess at Week 14’s lead back – but note that the Rams have had the same RB lead in touches in back-to-back weeks only 2 times all season (Akers Weeks 2 and 3, Darrell Henderson Weeks 9 and 10).

Miami Dolphins

RB snap rates:

Raheem Mostert - 61%
Jeff Wilson - 37%

Route rates:

Raheem Mostert - 49%
Jeff Wilson - 38%

Tyreek Hill - 92%
Trent Sherfield - 70%
Jaylen Waddle - 54% (injured)
River Cracraft - 41%
Cedrick Wilson - 14%

Durham Smythe - 38%
Mike Gesicki - 22%
Tanner Conner - 5%

Takeaways:

• We now have 3 games of Mostert and Wilson together. They split work down the middle in the 1st; Wilson led the way in the 2nd; and Mostert led in the 3rd. Total opportunities in those 3 games:
  • Wilson - 27 carries, 10 targets
  • Mostert - 24 carries, 6 targets
• This was a season-low route rate for Gesicki, who figures to be playing elsewhere in 2023.

Minnesota Vikings

RB snap rates:

Dalvin Cook - 75%
Alexander Mattison - 25%

Route rates:

Dalvin Cook - 54%
Alexander Mattison - 29%

Justin Jefferson - 98%
Adam Thielen - 98%
K.J. Osborn - 76%
Jalen Reagor - 2%

T.J. Hockenson - 90%
Johnny Mundt - 15%

Takeaways:

• Vikings targets in 5 games since Hockenson arrived:
  • Jefferson - 56 (29% share)
  • Hockenson - 40 (21%)
  • Thielen - 33 (17%)
  • Osborn - 21 (11%)
  • Cook - 20 (10%)

New England Patriots

RB snap rates:

Rhamondre Stevenson - 98%
Kevin Harris - 2%

Route rates:

Rhamondre Stevenson - 85%
Kevin Harris - 0%

DeVante Parker - 80%
Jakobi Meyers - 63%
Nelson Agholor - 54%
Kendrick Bourne - 41%
Tyquan Thornton - 39%
Marcus Jones - 7%

Hunter Henry - 78%
Jonnu Smith - 24%

Takeaways:

• Truly elite usage for Stevenson with RB Damien Harris out. He handled 10 of 11 RB carries (91%) and racked up 8 targets (22% share).
• Meyers was seemingly limited by his shoulder injury. The rest of the WR devolved back into an ugly committee.
• Henry has posted 76%, 74% and 78% route rates in 3 games since New England’s bye. He’s totaled just 11 targets for an 11% share. But, as we saw this past week with Greg Dulcich and Evan Engram, the strong route rates at least give Henry the potential to pop.

New Orleans Saints

RB snap rates:

Alvin Kamara - 59%
Mark Ingram - 43%

Route rates:

Alvin Kamara - 50%
Mark Ingram - 32%

Chris Olave - 79%
Rashid Shaheed - 74%
Jarvis Landry - 71%
Marquez Callaway - 12%
Kirk Merritt - 12%
Tre’Quan Smith - 6%

Adam Trautman - 53%
Taysom Hill - 44%
Lucas Krull - 15%

Takeaways:

• A season-low snap rate for Kamara, who finished with 12 carries and 3 targets to Ingram’s 7 carries and 5 targets. Kamara has been inefficient for a while and doesn’t even have volume to lean on going forward.

New York Giants

RB snap rates:

Saquon Barkley - 88%
Matt Breida - 14%

Route rates:

Saquon Barkley - 66%
Matt Breida - 12%

Darius Slayton - 98%
Isaiah Hodgins - 88%
Richie James - 54%
Marcus Johnson - 10%
David Sills - 2%

Daniel Bellinger - 83%
Nick Vannett - 37%
Chris Myarick - 5%

Takeaways:

• This was Barkley’s biggest snap share since Week 6. His 23 opportunities (18 carries, 5 targets) were his most since Week 10.
• James’ route rate nosedived in this one, as the Giants opted for more 2-TE sets.
• Bellinger returned from his eye injury and was immediately re-installed as the lead TE. He saw 5 targets for a 16% target share and has now averaged 4.2 targets over his last 5 healthy games. You could do worse as a Week 14 spot starter, with 6 teams on bye.

New York Jets

RB snap rates:

Zonovan Knight - 55%
Ty Johnson - 33%
James Robinson - 11%

Route rates:

Zonovan Knight - 42%
Ty Johnson - 42%
James Robinson - 5%

Garrett Wilson - 92%
Corey Davis - 79%
Elijah Moore - 74%
Braxton Berrios - 21%
Denzel Mims - 21%

Tyler Conklin - 61%
C.J. Uzomah - 34%

Takeaways:

• Knight handled 15 of 20 RB carries (75%) and drew 5 targets (9% share). He’s a RB2 as long as RB Michael Carter is out.
• Wilson has tallied 23 targets on a 26% share from QB Mike White over the past 2 weeks.
• Moore’s 74% route rate was his highest since Week 5. His 6 targets were just a 10% share, though. And he caught only 2 of them for 7 yards. Moore is certainly trending up but still can’t be trusted in Week 14 fantasy lineups.

Philadelphia Eagles

RB snap rates:

Miles Sanders - 53%
Kenneth Gainwell - 27%
Boston Scott - 23%

Route rates:

Miles Sanders - 41%
Kenneth Gainwell - 30%
Boston Scott - 15%

DeVonta Smith - 93%
A.J. Brown - 93%
Quez Watkins - 63%
Zach Pascal - 33%

Jack Stoll - 67%
Grant Calcaterra - 20%
Tyree Jackson - 15%

Takeaways:

• Sanders’ 53% snap rate and 10 carries were his lowest marks since Week 8. My guess is that it was a result of the matchup against a stout Titans run defense, but we’ll monitor going forward.

Pittsburgh Steelers

RB snap rates:

Najee Harris - 66%
Jaylen Warren - 20%
Benny Snell - 14%

Route rates:

Najee Harris - 35%
Jaylen Warren - 26%
Benny Snell - 6%

Diontae Johnson - 100%
George Pickens - 87%
Steven Sims - 39%
Gunner Olszewski - 26%

Pat Freiermuth - 55%
Zach Gentry - 39%
Connor Heyward - 16%

Takeaways:

• Coming off that oblique injury, Harris handled 17 of 24 RB carries (71%) but played a minimal passing-down role, finishing with just 1 target.
• Pickens is averaging just 4.5 targets on a 14% share in 4 games since the Steelers’ Week 9 bye.
• This was Freiermuth’s lowest route rate in a healthy game all season. Pittsburgh went run heavy and used more Gentry as a blocker.

San Francisco 49ers

RB snap rates:

Christian McCaffrey - 82%
Jordan Mason - 18%

Route rates:

Christian McCaffrey - 77%
Jordan Mason - 8%

Brandon Aiyuk - 100%
Deebo Samuel - 83%
Jauan Jennings - 44%
Ray-Ray McCloud - 8%

George Kittle - 94%
Tyler Kroft - 17%

Takeaways:

• McCaffrey’s knee must not be that big of an issue. This was his highest snap rate as a 49er. And his 27 opportunities (17 carries, 10 targets) matched his highest mark with the team.
• Kittle continues to register elite route rates, which makes him tough to bench. But he’s averaged just 4.0 targets on a 12% share over his last 5 outings. Kittle is currently sitting on his lowest yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade since his 2017 rookie season.

Seattle Seahawks

RB snap rates:

DeeJay Dallas - 48%
Tony Jones - 34%
Ken Walker - 21% (injured)

Route rates:

DeeJay Dallas - 37%
Tony Jones - 35%
Ken Walker - 22% (injured)

Tyler Lockett - 96%
D.K. Metcalf - 91%
Marquise Goodwin - 50%
Laquon Treadwell - 20%

Noah Fant - 50%
Will Dissly - 43%
Colby Parkinson - 24%

Takeaways:

• I don’t have a take on Seattle’s backfield if Walker misses time. Ask me again on Friday.
• Fant’s route rates has been lower than we’d like to see, but he’s averaged 4.5 targets on a 13% share over his last 4 games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

RB snap rates:

Leonard Fournette - 60%
Rachaad White - 41%

Route rates:

Leonard Fournette - 59%
Rachaad White - 37%

Mike Evans - 88%
Chris Godwin - 83%
Julio Jones - 71%
Russell Gage - 32%
Scotty Miller - 15%

Cade Otton - 83%
Kyle Rudolph - 7%
Ko Kieft - 7%

Takeaways:

• Fournette looks like at least a slightly better fantasy bet than White going forward. It’s worth noting, though, that both guys ranked top 9 among RBs in expected PPR points this week (Fournette 4th, White 9th).
• Otton again registered strong usage and solid fantasy production (6-28-1) with TE Cameron Brate out.

Tennessee Titans

RB snap rates:

Derrick Henry - 55%
Dontrell Hilliard - 36%
Julius Chestnut - 13%

Route rates:

Derrick Henry - 42%
Dontrell Hilliard - 42%
Julius Chestnut - 6%

Robert Woods - 97%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 97%
C.J. Board - 28%
Treylon Burks - 22% (injured)

Austin Hooper - 61%
Chig Okonkwo - 56%
Geoff Swaim - 14%

Takeaways:

• That’s a sub-60% snap rate in 4 of the last 5 games for Henry. He’s failed to top 3.1 yards per carry in 4 straight.
• This was a season-high route rate for Okonkwo, who’s tallied 5 targets in 2 straight. The rookie has drawn a target on a strong 24% of his routes this season and could become a fantasy factor if he maintains this elevated playing time.

Washington Commanders

RB snap rates:

Antonio Gibson - 49%
Brian Robinson - 47%
Jonathan Williams - 2%

Route rates:

Antonio Gibson - 48%
Brian Robinson - 23%
Jonathan Williams - 2%

Terry McLaurin - 94%
Jahan Dotson - 90%
Curtis Samuel - 81%
Dyami Brown - 13%
Cam Sims - 6%

Logan Thomas - 58%
John Bates - 15%
Cole Turner - 2%

Takeaways:

• Gibson regained the snap lead in this one but was out-carried by Robinson 21 to 9. Gibson out-targeted Robinson 4 to 2.
• Dotson returned to full playing time and posted a 5-54-1 line. His 9 targets and 22% target share were both season highs.