The Colts Freed Up a Bunch of Targets; Who’s Ready to Catch ‘Em?

Indianapolis Colts 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Daniel Jones

2025 Role & Results

His Best Fantasy Stretch Since 2022 

Jones' 2025 season was his best performance since 2022. His 18.0 fantasy points per game marked a big jump vs. his previous two seasons:

Six of Jones’ starts ended as top-12 fantasy weeks, with only one of his other six healthy weeks falling out of the top-18 QBs. That gave him low-end QB1 value in Steichen’s offense, especially early in the season. 

Rushing Fueled Early Production

Jones’ rushing production mattered, but there was a big asterisk. He scored 5 rushing TDs through Week 13, tied for fourth among QBs, and converted five of six carries from inside the 5. 

The problem? Jones ran for two TDs in the first week of the season causing a spike in his fantasy scoring via the run. 

He stayed fairly consistent after that with three more rushing scores over the course of the season.

His scramble and designed-run rates stayed fairly steady all season. Jones finished with 22 scrambles and 23 designed runs, giving him a scheme-backed rushing role that still left room for production.

Jones only had two games with 300+ yards passing, but his rushing helped keep Jones above QB18 in 11 of his 12 full games played.

The Offense Leaned Into Throwing

The Steichen offense also leaned on Jones to pass more than previous iterations. Across Jones’ 12 full games, this was Steichen’s highest pass rate over expected.

Jones also threw efficiently, posting a 67.2% completion rate against a 63.0% expected mark. His +4.2% completion rate over expected ranked sixth among 42 QBs with 150 attempts, a sign he wasn’t just living on easy, short throws.

The season came to a halt when Jones suffered an Achilles’ tear at the end of the first quarter in Week 14. He missed the rest of the season and put his start of 2026 in doubt.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Achilles’ Injury Complicates Early Season

The most pressing question for 2026 is simply whether Jones will be on the field. His December Achilles tear came with a six-to-eight-month recovery timeline. That would bring him back around mid-August at the long end, leaving little margin for setbacks and real risk that he misses games or opens the season compromised. 

The bigger concern is whether Jones can replicate his rushing production even if he’s ready for Week 1. A slower start physically could mean fewer designed runs, fewer scrambles, and a tougher path back to five rushing TDs, which mattered a lot to his fantasy value.

Jones returned in 2024 from a Week 9 ACL tear in 2023 and saw his rushing production decline slightly. He averaged 26.5 rushing yards per game with 4 yards per carry. That was down from his career averages to that point of 31.9 rushing yards per game with 5.77 yards per carry.

An Achilles injury could impact rushing even more than an ACL, but Jones slowed down a bit (especially on a per carry basis) after his ACL injury.

Losing Pittman Could Hurt

The supporting cast also took a hit. Michael Pittman Jr. drew a 21.5% target share and ranked 17th among WRs in PPR points before Jones’ injury. The Colts traded him to Pittsburgh after the season and didn’t import any comparable piece.

Alec Pierce now sits atop the WR depth chart after signing a four-year, $114 million extension. He ranked 16th in yards per route run, led the league in target air yards, and set career highs across the board in 2025. But ankle surgery clouds his early-season status, and before last year he’d mostly operated as a deep threat with limited target volume.

Josh Downs returns in the slot bur his playing time was down in 2025. His catches per game at 3.63 were the worst of his career as well. There has been some positive buzz around Downs from GM Chris Ballard

Tyler Warren showed upside at TE as a potential top weapon for the team as well. He certainly profiles as a pass catcher who could make up for Pittman’s departure as a short-to-intermediate target option.

Jonathan Taylor will remain the engine of this offense, especially if Jones’ injury affects the QB’s play. Indianapolis’ run game volume already caps Jones’ pass volume with Taylor leading the league in rushing attempts at 323 in 2025. He will likely be atop the league again and be the Colts’ best path to early offensive success.

Don’t Expect a Repeat of 2025

2025 may have shown us Jones’ ceiling. He got to low-end QB1 territory with the team passing more than expected with Jones, but take away Pittman, add uncertainty around Pierce, and factor in real mobility concerns after the injury, and the path back there gets much narrower. 

If he’s healthy and Pierce is ready, the efficient passing and favorable system can still make Jones streamable. But with late-round QB depth plentiful, he’s a dart throw rather than a reliable fantasy asset.

Jonathan Taylor

2025 Role & Results

Taylor Scored More Than Expected 

Taylor put together one of the best RB seasons in the league in 2025, finishing RB4 with 362.3 PPR points across 17 games. He averaged 21.3 PPR points per game, also RB4, and was the single biggest overachiever at the position, producing 4.1 more fantasy points per game than expected. Taylor averaged 2.1 more PPR fantasy points per game than expected heading into 2025. 

Taylor led the league with 323 carries and 18 rushing touchdowns, while adding 46 receptions for 378 yards. He ranked ninth in yards per carry and fifth in rush yards over expected, meaning he was both getting volume and making the most of every touch.

2025 gave us Taylor’s best production since 2021:

Of course, scoring above expectation also signals some fragility in that production. We could see Taylor’s numbers regress in 2026 -- even if he stays healthy -- with less efficiency from him, the offense, or both.

QB Helped Unlock Taylor

Daniel Jones boosted the offense and helped Taylor excel.

Through the 13 weeks Jones started, Taylor ranked second in both PPR points per game and expected points, producing 6.2 points per game over expectation, the largest gap of any running back in that stretch. 

Jones’ ability to threaten defenses through the air helped keep boxes light. Taylor faced 8+ men on just 18% of his carries, 42nd among 51 RBs with 90+ carries and down slightly from 19.1% in 2024 (26th).

The Colts ensured he received those opportunities. His 23 carries inside the 5-yard line ranked second in the league.

Struggles Without Jones

Taylor struggled to keep his production after Jones went down with his Achilles injury. 

He scored fewer TDs with the offense struggling more and found less rushing room when attempting to run. The high-powered offense with Jones helped provide the opportunities for Taylor to succeed.

That could be a problem if Jones misses games in 2026.

2025 Was Finally Injury-Free

Taylor played all 17 games in 2025, his first time since 2021. Taylor missed at least three games each season from 2022 to 2024. High ankle sprains and ankle injuries caused his absences in 2022 and 2024, while a torn ligament in his thumb put him on the bench in 2023.

The chronic ankle issues for Taylor throughout his career are certainly worth noting heading into 2026. It could halt his fantasy season if those crop up again.

The Dual-Threat Version Is Back

Taylor’s receiving numbers were also the best of his career.  He posted a 10.5% target share in 2025, the highest of his career, and ran a route on 71% of passing plays, fourth among all RBs. 

That receiving role matters because it boosts his fantasy floor even in games where the run game stalls. For context on how that target share stacks up over his career:

Taylor's receiving involvement is back to where it was when he entered the league. That makes him harder to gameplan against and more valuable in PPR formats.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Jones' Recovery Pushes More Work Taylor's Way

Taylor's role could even expand further in 2026 despite his league lead in carries in 2025. Jones’ Achilles’ recovery could motivate more of a run lean in 2026, especially early -- and especially with Michael Pittman Jr. gone from the passing game.

Last year actually produced the fewest rushes per game since Steichen arrived, though we can attribute at least some of that to Anthony Richardson starting 15 games over the previous two years vs. none last year).

Taylor’s 21.6 rushes per game in 2024 topped his 19.0 in 2025, but he also had a career low in catches per game at 1.3. So, more rushing could get Taylor more work on the ground, but also hurt his receiving.

The backfield competition is essentially nonexistent. DJ Giddens handled only 7.0% of Colts RB carries last year after arriving as a fifth-round pick. Seth McGowan arrived in the seventh round this spring and will need to prove he matters.

Taylor’s 73.1% share of team carries overall led the league in 2025.

Of course, it’s also worth noting that a weaker Jones and impacted offensive plan could hurt the unit’s overall efficiency. That scenario likely wouldn’t help Taylor’s output.

Slight O-Line Changes Shouldn’t Hurt

The Colts’ O-line remained one of the better run-blocking fronts in the league last season, ranking fourth in PFF run-blocking grade and seventh in ESPN run-block win rate.

The Colts let RT Braden Smith leave in free agency -- he got a two-year, $20 million deal from the Texans -- and plan to replace him with Jalen Travis.

Travis arrived in the fourth round of last year’s draft and started the final four games in place of the injured Smith. The rookie finished 38th in PRR run-blocking grade, just narrowly behind Smith (71.9, 35th).

Taylor Looks Fairly Safe … But There Are Risks

We know Taylor won’t lose meaningful work as long as he stays healthy, but that injury factor is the biggest risk.

We can’t accurately predict season-altering injuries. But we do know historically that it takes some luck for a RB to hold up through the kind of workload Taylor just got. From the league expansion to 32 teams in 2002 through 2024, we saw 105 RB seasons of 300+ carries. Of those, 37 got another 300+ carries the following year.

That did include Taylor hitting 303 in 2024 and then 323 last year. But he also missed three games in 2024, one of four seasons among his six as a pro that have included 2+ games lost to injury.

That’s not a reason to pass on Taylor but a factor to keep in mind and try to insure against if you do open with Taylor.

Questions Remain in the Offense

There’s also some risk in the offense, which tanked after Jones went down last season. More missed time for the QB would hurt the TD-heavy runner.

Even with Jones, we could see a softened Colts offense vs. last year’s hot start. That group averaged 32.1 points per game before its Week 11 bye, a pace that would have beaten the league-leading Rams by about 28 points for the season (and the No. 2 Patriots by 55). 

Jones and the offense started to cool after the bye, but his injury early in Week 14 robbed us of the chance to see how it would finish.

A healthy Taylor in a healthy Colts offense has showed us he sports upside to the top of the position. But there’s also a chance we get something like Saquon Barkley’s 2025, where the factors that worked for the RB’s production turn against him.

And like Barkley, Taylor’s receiving doesn’t match the level of the three RBs joining him at the top of the ADP board (Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Christian McCaffrey).

Alec Pierce

2025 Role & Results

Career Highs Across The Board 

Pierce took a significant step forward in 2025, finishing WR28 overall with 183.3 PPR points across 15 games. He averaged 12.2 points per game, good for WR27 in points per game. For context on how big that jump was:

That trajectory earned him a four-year, $114 million contract extension, and the underlying numbers explain why the Colts were willing to pay. 

But Pierce was pretty volatile. He had two top-five fantasy finishes, but no other top-12 finishes last season. He also had seven weeks outside the top-36. 

Pierce set career highs across the board in 2025: 84 targets, 47 catches, 1,003 yards, 6 TDs, and a 2.10 YPRR that ranked 16th among 76 WRs with 50+ targets. His 81.0 PFF receiving grade ranked 18th out of 111 qualified receivers.

Pierce Still Owns the Vertical Role

Pierce maintained his deep work from previous seasons while expanding his opportunities and production in other areas of the field.

Pierce ranked third on the team in target share at 17.4%, just behind Tyler Warren (19.4%) and Michael Pittman Jr. (19.7%). That increased to 18.3% in Jones’ 12 full games.

Pierce’s target share and targets per route run have improved in each of the past two seasons:

His opportunities have been increasing and should increase even more with target-share leader Pittman moving on.

Pierce also had another strong downfield season in 2025.

He led eligible WRs in:

• Average depth of target (20.0 yards), 
• Yards per reception (21.3)

Pierce has consistently seen plenty of deep work:

He Stayed Dangerous As the Route Depth Changed

What made 2025 different was Pierce’s success on short and intermediate routes. His PFF grades on those targets have climbed over the last two seasons:

Both 2025 marks were career highs. A WR who can stress defenses deep and win underneath is much tougher to cover than a one-dimensional speed threat, and that development helped earn the big contract.

Pierce Produced with Every QB

The environment helped too. The Colts posted a 3.1% pass rate over expected in QB Daniel Jones’ 12 full games after posting negative PROE figures in each of the prior two seasons. 

More passing volume obviously means more opportunities, and Pierce capitalized. He also carried over that production to Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard games after Jones’ injury, suggesting the upswing is real and not necessarily QB dependent. 

Pierce’s best two fantasy performances of the season came in Weeks 16 with Rivers (24.6 points, WR5 overall) and Week 18 with Leonard (29.1 points, WR2).

2026 Opportunity & Projection

March Surgery Puts the Breakout on Hold

The opportunity is real, but the concerns stack up quickly. Pierce had ankle surgery in March, hasn’t guaranteed he’ll be ready for Week 1, and is working off a reported 4-6 month recovery timeline. That leaves his early-season availability in doubt.

There’s also no guarantee Pierce will be 100% even if he opens the season on the field. We’ll have to track reports on Pierce’s practice participation and even observations on how close he looks to normal speed as the start of the season draws closer.

The timing gets even trickier when you add Jones’ Achilles recovery. If both players are easing into the season, the Colts’ passing game could open at reduced capacity and destabilize Pierce’s early fantasy outlook.

Pittman's 19.7% Target Share Is Up for Grabs

The silver lining is the opening in the WR room. Indy traded Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers and added no meaningful replacement. His 19.7% target share has to go somewhere. Pierce is an obvious candidate to absorb part of that volume after landing his new contract.

There is some competition for those targets. Tyler Warren already topped Pierce in target share last season, while Josh Downs has drawn praise from GM Chris Ballard. That means target competition, but the Colts gave Pierce $114 million because they want him heavily involved.

Massive Upside, But He Could Still Bust

If Pierce gets healthy and stays healthy, leads the team in targets, and builds on last year’s short-to-intermediate growth, he could push into WR2 territory in fantasy scoring.

His deep-ball profile brings the kind of spike-week potential that swings fantasy matchups, and the Colts have clearly committed to him.

But the ankle surgery could cost him games or leave him compromised early in the season, and his 2025 production was a major jump from anything he’d shown before. That means he’ll need to prove factors such as the career highs in catch rate and yards per route can stick rather than regress.

If he reverts to a one-dimensional deep threat, you're looking at a volatile week-to-week option who could bust with plenty of quiet games. And, of course, there’s the risk that the ankle simply dogs him all season.

If his ADP hangs around WR36, that seems more risk than reward.

Josh Downs

2025 Role & Results

Worst Year of His Career

Downs took a step back in 2025, finishing WR44 overall with 136.4 PPR points across 16 games and averaging just 8.5 points per game, which ranked 54th. It was the lowest per-game average of his career to date:

The regression is harder to explain away when you consider the context. The Colts passed at a higher rate than expected with Daniel Jones at quarterback, posting a 3.1% PROE in his starts compared to negative figures in each of the prior two seasons. A better passing environment still didn't help Downs.

His target share dipped despite that pass environment:

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.