12-Team Non PPR Draft Strategy

 

What’s the optimal 12-team Non PPR draft strategy?

Fantasy drafts are tricky. There are a bunch of different variables to consider each time you’re on the clock:

• Scoring system
• Positional value
• Team needs
• ADP
• Upside
• Injury risk

It’s easy to be overwhelmed and make costly draft mistakes.

And is there anything worse than seeing your top picks falter while your opponents land the late-round league winners?

The solution: A round-by-round draft strategy guide to maximize value with every pick.

The 12-team Non PPR draft strategy guide below will take you through top targets and secondary options for every pick of your draft.

We’re using our 3D Values and current ADP to pinpoint the best picks in each round.

Consider this your game plan heading into your draft.

No fantasy football draft goes exactly as planned, of course. You’ll likely need to adjust your Non PPR draft strategy throughout the proceedings to maximize value.

That’s where the customized, dynamic fantasy football cheat sheet on your Draft War Room comes into play, instantly analyzing 17 value indicators each time you’re on the clock to help you make the best pick.

Combine the Draft War Room with this round-by-round game plan, and you’ll be armed with the ultimate Non PPR fantasy football draft guide.

Note: This strategy guide assumes a 16-round draft and starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 DST. The Draft War Room will help you adjust your strategy if your league settings are different.

 

 

Non PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 1, 2, or 3

Round 1

Top target: Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey’s 20.5 Non PPR points per game last year were 1.7 more than any other RB – and 4.3 more than any WR. He set career highs in multiple categories, including:

• Yards per carry
• Yards after contact per attempt
• Missed tackles forced per attempt

McCaffrey is still only 28 and should still have at least one more big fantasy season in him.

The only downside: Our Injury Predictor gives him a 63.6% chance of injury and 3.0 projected games missed this season.

Next best: CeeDee Lamb

Lamb is coming off a massive 2023 season, leading all WRs in Non PPR points. He’s grown his target share and yards per route run each season, is in his prime at 25, and returns to the same offense with the same QB in 2024.

He loses some value vs. McCaffrey in Non PPR. But Lamb is arguably the safest pick in fantasy football.

Other option 

• Tyreek Hill

 

Rounds 2 & 3

Top targets: Derrick Henry & Deebo Samuel

Henry remained effective as a workhorse last year, ranking top five in carries (280), rushing yards (1,167), and rushing TDs (12). Now he get a big upgrade in supporting cast in Baltimore, where the Ravens have finished top seven in points in all three seasons QB Lamar Jackson has made 13+ starts.

Samuel’s low-ish volume, high efficiency profile gets a boost in Non PPR leagues. He finished eighth among WRs in total Non PPR points last year; sixth in points per game. Samuel remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Next best: De’Von Achane & Travis Etienne 

Achane’s 11 games last year included Non PPR explosions of:

• 47.3 points
• 24.0 points
• 22.5 points
• 22.3 points
• 19.7 points

The 188-pounder will never be a high-volume back. But he doesn’t need to be to deliver bunches of fantasy points thanks to his big-play ability. Achane averaged a huge 7.8 yards per carry and took 13 of his 103 attempts (12.6%) for 15+ yards last year. 

Etienne is coming off a RB4 finish in Non PPR points, tallying the fourth-most carries and seventh-most targets among RBs. Tank Bigsby will need to be much better this season to take significant work from Etienne, a 25-year-old former first-round pick.

Try to leave the first three rounds of your Non PPR draft with at least one RB, ideally two.

Other options

• Isiah Pacheco
• Mike Evans
• Jaylen Waddle

 

Rounds 4 & 5

Top targets: Ken Walker & Cooper Kupp

The presence of RB Zach Charbonnet and a new coaching staff adds some risk to Walker's profile. But in 14 games together last year, Walker averaged 13.8 carries and 2.4 targets per game to Charbonnet's 5.4 carries and 2.4 targets. Walker finished 18th among RBs in Non PPR points per game.

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between he and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 9.3 Non PPR points per game in those outings ranked 21st among WRs.

Next best: Joe Mixon & Tee Higgins

The Texans traded for Mixon before he could hit the open market -- and then signed him to a three-year, $27 million extension. That all points to Mixon operating as the clear lead back for a Texans offense that could explode in QB C.J. Stroud's second season.

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He ranked top-17 in Non PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022 and is just 25.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• Tank Dell
• Mark Andrews

 

Rounds 6 & 7

Top targets: Raheem Mostert & Calvin Ridley

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Non PPR points in offensive guru HC Mike McDaniel’s scheme. There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into this price tag.

Ridley trailed new teammate DeAndre Hopkins in most metrics last year. But the Titans gave him a big four-year, $92 million deal in free agency, which might signal that they want him to be the No. 1 WR. Tennessee figures to throw it a lot more this year under new HC Brian Callahan.

Next best: Dak Prescott & Rhamondre Stevenson

Prescott’s future in Dallas beyond 2024 might be uncertain, but he’s a strong fantasy value for this year. He's coming off a QB3 finish and returns his top three targets in WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Jake Ferguson, and WR Brandin Cooks.

After a slow start last year, Stevenson scored as a top-15 RB over his final six healthy games. The four-year, $36 million extension he signed earlier this offseason indicates that New England's new coaching staff views Stevenson as their lead back, despite the addition of RB Antonio Gibson.

Other options

• Jonathon Brooks
• Jayden Reed
• Terry McLaurin
• Chris Godwin

 

Rounds 8 & 9

Top targets: Jayden Daniels & Javonte Williams

Daniels’ ADP is sitting in the middle of Round 10, but he’s fine to reach for in the ninth if you’re still looking for your QB1. The rookie’s combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. 

Williams is coming off an inefficient 2023 season, but it’s fair to blame his 2022 multi-ligament knee injury. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

Next best: DeAndre Hopkins & Jake Ferguson

Despite the big contract that WR Calvin Ridley got from Tennessee this offseason, Hopkins might remain the team’s No. 1 WR. He easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year such as yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. Regardless of how targets are divvied, there will be significantly more passing volume under new HC Brian Callahan.

Ferguson finished TE8 in Non PPR points last year, despite underachieving in the TD department. He’ll remain a big part of Dallas’ passing game in 2024.

There’s a tier drop at TE behind Ferguson and Dallas Goedert, so grabbing one at this turn makes sense.

Other options

• Brian Robinson
• Zack Moss
• Jaylen Warren
• Christian Watson
• Diontae Johnson
• Dallas Goedert

 

Rounds 10 & 11

Top targets: Courtland Sutton & Ezekiel Elliott

Sutton isn't an exciting pick. But he's coming off a Non PPR WR26 finish, fueled by 10 TDs, and could see a target boost this year with WR Jerry Jeudy off to Cleveland.

Elliott is an even less exciting pick. He’s certainly not the fantasy stud he used to be. But he might be the lead back in a top-10 offense. TD production alone could turn him into a nice Non PPR value at this price tag.

Next best: Mike Williams & Pat Freiermuth

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Chase Brown
• Zach Charbonnet
• Tyler Lockett

 

Rounds 12 & 13

Top targets: Kendre Miller & Gabe Davis

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances. Davis finished as a top-15 Non PPR WR six times last season.

Next best: Ty Chandler & Jahan Dotson

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023. But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Dotson is coming off a disappointing 2023 season but is now super cheap for a 24-year-old, former first-round pick. Curtis Samuel’s departure means Dotson is essentially locked into a top-two WR job. And Washington upgraded at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick of this spring's draft.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Kimani Vidal
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Brandin Cooks
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Luke Musgrave

 

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

 

 

Non PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 4, 5, or 6

Round 1

Top target: Breece Hall

Hall is coming off a RB6 finish in Non PPR points ... a year after tearing an ACL ... on an offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers and finished bottom four in total yards and points.

Rodgers is back for 2024, and the Jets made some significant upgrades on the offensive line this offseason.

Hall has the upside to challenge Christian McCaffrey for the RB scoring lead.

Next best: Bijan Robinson

Robinson’s rookie campaign felt a little underwhelming – but he still finished ninth among RBs in Non PPR points.

The change from Arthur Smith to Zac Robinson’s offense should mean a more fantasy-friendly role. Robinson spent the last five seasons working under Sean McVay, whose offense has produced a bunch of big RB seasons.

Other option

• Justin Jefferson

 

Round 2

Top target: Derrick Henry

Henry remained effective as a workhorse last year, ranking top five in carries (280), rushing yards (1,167), and rushing TDs (12). 

Now he get a big upgrade in supporting cast in Baltimore, where the Ravens have finished top seven in points in all three seasons QB Lamar Jackson has made 13+ starts.

Next best: De’Von Achane

Achane’s 11 games last year included Non PPR explosions of:

• 47.3 points
• 24.0 points
• 22.5 points
• 22.3 points
• 19.7 points

The 188-pounder will never be a high-volume back. But he doesn’t need to be to deliver bunches of fantasy points thanks to his big-play ability. Achane averaged a huge 7.8 yards per carry and took 13 of his 103 attempts (12.6%) for 15+ yards last year. 

Other options

• Travis Etienne
• Drake London

 

Round 3

Top target: Deebo Samuel

Samuel’s low-ish volume, high efficiency profile gets a boost in Non PPR leagues. He finished eighth among WRs in total Non PPR points last year; sixth in points per game. 

Samuel remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Next best: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco finished 14th among RBs in Non PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who remains unsigned.

With mega-bust Clyde Edwards-Helaire behind him on the depth chart, Pacheco is in for a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Don’t be afraid to open your Non PPR draft with three straight RBs if they happen to be the best available players.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Mike Evans
• Jaylen Waddle

 

Round 4

Top target: Cooper Kupp

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between he and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 9.3 Non PPR points per game in those outings ranked 21st among WRs.

Next best: Ken Walker

The presence of RB Zach Charbonnet and a new coaching staff adds some risk to Walker's profile. 

But Walker was the clear lead back last year. In 14 games together, he averaged 13.8 carries and 2.4 targets per game to Charbonnet's 5.4 carries and 2.4 targets. 

Walker finished 18th among RBs in Non PPR points per game.

Other options

• Joe Mixon
• D.K. Metcalf
• Mark Andrews

 

Round 5

Top target: Tee Higgins

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Don't forget that Higgins ranked 17th in Non PPR points per game in 2021 and 11th in 2022. He's still just 25.

Next best: James Conner

Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year. In fact, he set career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• PFF rushing grade

Conner finished seventh at his position in Non PPR points per game. Despite the addition of rookie Trey Benson, expect Conner to again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• Tank Dell

 

Round 6

Top target: David Montgomery

Montgomery tallied 13 TDs and a RB6 finish in Non PPR points per game last year.

Jahmyr Gibbs might steal a bit more work this year, but Montgomery should remain a goal-line fixture for a high-scoring Lions offense.

Next best: Rhamondre Stevenson

After a slow start last year, Stevenson scored as a top-15 RB over his final six healthy games. 

The four-year, $36 million extension he signed earlier this offseason indicates that New England's new coaching staff views Stevenson as their lead back, despite the addition of RB Antonio Gibson.

Other options

• Jayden Reed
• Terry McLaurin

 

Round 7

Top target: Raheem Mostert

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Non PPR points in offensive guru HC Mike McDaniel’s scheme. 

There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into this price tag.

Next best: Calvin Ridley

Ridley trailed new teammate DeAndre Hopkins in most metrics last year. But the Titans gave him a big four-year, $92 million deal in free agency, which might signal that they want him to be the No. 1 WR. 

Tennessee figures to throw it a lot more this year under new HC Brian Callahan.

Other options

• Dak Prescott
• Najee Harris
• Chris Godwin

 

Round 8

Top target: Jonathon Brooks

Brooks is a rookie RB with a limited college resume coming off a torn ACL. 

But there are lots of reasons to love him as a Round 8 pick:

• Brooks was awesome in his 10 games as Texas' feature back last year, averaging 114 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards per game.
• Carolina traded up to make him the first RB off the board in this spring's draft.
• He joins a backfield with weak competition from Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders.
• New Panthers HC Dave Canales just helped Rachaad White to a breakout season.

Next best: DeAndre Hopkins

Despite the big contract that WR Calvin Ridley got from Tennessee this offseason, Hopkins might remain the team’s No. 1 WR. He easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year such as yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. 

Regardless of how targets are divvied, there will be significantly more passing volume under new HC Brian Callahan.

Other options

• Javonte Williams
• Zack Moss
• Jaylen Warren
• Diontae Johnson
• Jake Ferguson

 

Round 9

Top target: Jayden Daniels

Daniels’ combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. 

Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019.

Next best: Dallas Goedert

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 14th among TE in Non PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE6 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

There’s a tier drop at TE behind Goedert.

Other options

• Brian Robinson
• Christian Watson
• Jameson Williams
• Keon Coleman
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

 

Round 10

Top target: Courtland Sutton

Sutton isn't an exciting pick. But he's coming off a Non PPR WR26 finish last year, fueled by 10 TDs.

He could see a target boost this year with WR Jerry Jeudy off to Cleveland.

Next best: Ezekiel Elliott

Elliott is an even less exciting pick than Sutton. He’s certainly not the fantasy stud he used to be. 

But he might be the lead back in a top-10 offense. TD production alone could turn him into a nice Non PPR value at this price tag.

Other options

• Tyler Lockett
• Dalton Schultz

 

Round 11

Top target: Mike Williams

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

His TD-scoring prowess is especially valuable in Non PPR fantasy leagues.

Next best: Pat Freiermuth

Here's one of the top 2024 fantasy football sleepers.

Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Chase Brown
• Zach Charbonnet
• Jerome Ford
• Rashid Shaheed

 

Round 12

Top target: Kendre Miller

Injuries marred Miller's rookie season. He dealt with knee, hamstring, and ankle injuries, missing nine regular-season games.

But he was an exciting prospect heading into the league last offseason, running for 1,399 yards and 17 TDs on 6.2 yards per carry as a junior in 2022. And he flashed in last year's finale with 73 yards and a score on 13 carries (6.0 YPC)

Miller finds himself in a 2024 Saints backfield with a pair of declining veterans in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. The youngster could capture a big role and is a top value pick near the end of fantasy drafts.

Next best: Gabe Davis

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances. 

Davis finished as a top-15 Non PPR WR six times last season.

Other options

• J.K. Dobbins
• Jerry Jeudy
• Josh Downs
• Josh Palmer
• Luke Musgrave

 

Round 13

Top target: Ty Chandler

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023. 

But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Next best: Jahan Dotson

Dotson is coming off a disappointing 2023 season but is now super cheap for a 24-year-old, former first-round pick. 

Curtis Samuel’s departure means Dotson is essentially locked into a top-two WR job. And Washington upgraded at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick of this spring's draft.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Kimani Vidal
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Brandin Cooks
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Marvin Mims

 

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

 

 

Non PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 7, 8, or 9

Round 1

Top target: Breece Hall

Hall is coming off a RB6 finish in Non PPR points ... a year after tearing an ACL ... on an offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers and finished bottom four in total yards and points.

Rodgers is back for 2024, and the Jets made some significant upgrades on the offensive line this offseason.

Hall has the upside to challenge Christian McCaffrey for the RB scoring lead.

Next best: Bijan Robinson

Robinson’s rookie campaign felt a little underwhelming – but he still finished ninth among RBs in Non PPR points.

The change from Arthur Smith to Zac Robinson’s offense should mean a more fantasy-friendly role. Robinson spent the last five seasons working under Sean McVay, whose offense has produced a bunch of big RB seasons.

Other options

• Jonathan Taylor
• Justin Jefferson

 

Round 2

Top target: Saquon Barkley

Barkley turned 288 touches (in 14 games) into a RB8 finish in Non PPR points per game last year. Now he gets a huge upgrade in situation going from New York to Philadelphia.

Next best: Kyren Williams

It might feel a bit unnerving to spend a first- or second-round pick on a guy who was a waiver-wire darling just a year ago. But Williams was excellent last season, ranking top-10 among 49 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, rush yards over expected per attempt, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

Just as importantly, his volume was excellent. Only Christian McCaffrey averaged more expected PPR points per game.

Rookie RB Blake Corum figures to cut into that workload a bit. But we’re expecting Williams to remain the Rams’ clear lead back.

Other options

• Derrick Henry
• Drake London
• Marvin Harrison Jr.

 

Round 3

Top target: Deebo Samuel

Samuel’s low-ish volume, high efficiency profile gets a boost in Non PPR leagues. He finished eighth among WRs in total Non PPR points last year; sixth in points per game. 

Samuel remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Next best: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco finished 14th among RBs in Non PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who remains unsigned.

With mega-bust Clyde Edwards-Helaire behind him on the depth chart, Pacheco is in for a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Don’t be afraid to open your Non PPR draft with three straight RBs if they happen to be the best available players.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Mike Evans
• Jaylen Waddle

 

Round 4

Top target: Cooper Kupp

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between he and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 9.3 Non PPR points per game in those outings ranked 21st among WRs.

Next best: Ken Walker

The presence of RB Zach Charbonnet and a new coaching staff adds some risk to Walker's profile. 

But Walker was the clear lead back last year. In 14 games together, he averaged 13.8 carries and 2.4 targets per game to Charbonnet's 5.4 carries and 2.4 targets. 

Walker finished 18th among RBs in Non PPR points per game.

Other options

• Joe Mixon
• D.K. Metcalf
• Malik Nabers
• Mark Andrews

 

Round 5

Top target: Tee Higgins

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Don't forget that Higgins ranked 17th in Non PPR points per game in 2021 and 11th in 2022. He's still just 25.

Next best: James Conner

Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year. In fact, he set career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• PFF rushing grade

Conner finished seventh at his position in Non PPR points per game. Despite the addition of rookie Trey Benson, expect Conner to again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• Tank Dell
• Amari Cooper
• George Pickens

 

Round 6

Top target: David Montgomery

Montgomery tallied 13 TDs and a RB6 finish in Non PPR points per game last year.

Jahmyr Gibbs might steal a bit more work this year, but Montgomery should remain a goal-line fixture for a high-scoring Lions offense.

Next best: Rhamondre Stevenson

After a slow start last year, Stevenson scored as a top-15 RB over his final six healthy games. 

The four-year, $36 million extension he signed earlier this offseason indicates that New England's new coaching staff views Stevenson as their lead back, despite the addition of RB Antonio Gibson.

Other options

• Joe Burrow
• Jayden Reed
• Terry McLaurin
• Christian Kirk
• George Kittle

 

Round 7

Top target: Raheem Mostert

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Non PPR points in offensive guru HC Mike McDaniel’s scheme. 

There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into this price tag.

Next best: Dak Prescott

Prescott’s future in Dallas beyond 2024 might be uncertain, but he’s a strong fantasy value for this year. 

He's coming off a QB3 finish and returns his top three targets in WR CeeDee Lamb, TE Jake Ferguson, and WR Brandin Cooks.

A shaky RB corps might push Dallas even more toward the pass this season.

Other options

• Calvin Ridley
• Chris Godwin

 

Round 8

Top target: Jonathon Brooks

Brooks is a rookie RB with a limited college resume coming off a torn ACL. 

But there are lots of reasons to love him as a Round 8 pick:

• Brooks was awesome in his 10 games as Texas' feature back last year, averaging 114 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards per game.
• Carolina traded up to make him the first RB off the board in this spring's draft.
• He joins a backfield with weak competition from Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders.
• New Panthers HC Dave Canales just helped Rachaad White to a breakout season.

Next best: DeAndre Hopkins

Despite the big contract that WR Calvin Ridley got from Tennessee this offseason, Hopkins might remain the team’s No. 1 WR. He easily beat Ridley in key metrics last year such as yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. 

Regardless of how targets are divvied, there will be significantly more passing volume under new HC Brian Callahan.

Other options

• Javonte Williams
• Diontae Johnson
• Jake Ferguson

 

Round 9

Top target: Jayden Daniels

Daniels’ ADP is sitting in the middle of Round 10, so you could gamble that he makes it to your next pick. But we’d rather just secure him here.

The rookie’s combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019.

Next best: Dallas Goedert

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 14th among TE in Non PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE6 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

There’s a tier drop at TE behind Goedert.

Other options

• Brian Robinson
• Tyjae Spears
• Christian Watson
• Jameson Williams

 

Round 10

Top target: Courtland Sutton

Sutton isn't an exciting pick. But he's coming off a Non PPR WR26 finish last year, fueled by 10 TDs.

He could see a target boost this year with WR Jerry Jeudy off to Cleveland.

Next best: Gus Edwards

There’s sorting out to do in the Chargers’ backfield this summer, but Edwards seems like the best bet to at least open the season as the lead back ahead of a rehabbing J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal.

Edwards is coming off career highs in rushing yards (810) and TDs (13) and has knows OC Greg Roman’s offense. 

His lack of pass-catching ability doesn’t hurt as much in Non PPR fantasy leagues.

Other options

• Ezekiel Elliott
• Tyler Lockett
• Dalton Schultz

 

Round 11

Top target: Mike Williams

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

His TD-scoring prowess is especially valuable in Non PPR fantasy leagues.

Next best: Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him. 

The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Chase Brown
• Zach Charbonnet
• Jerome Ford
• Rashid Shaheed

 

Round 12

Top target: Kendre Miller

Injuries marred Miller's rookie season. He dealt with knee, hamstring, and ankle injuries, missing nine regular-season games.

But he was an exciting prospect heading into the league last offseason, running for 1,399 yards and 17 TDs on 6.2 yards per carry as a junior in 2022. And he flashed in last year's finale with 73 yards and a score on 13 carries (6.0 YPC)

Miller finds himself in a 2024 Saints backfield with a pair of declining veterans in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. The youngster could capture a big role and is a top value pick near the end of fantasy drafts.

Next best: Gabe Davis

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances. 

Davis finished as a top-15 Non PPR WR six times last season.

Other options

• J.K. Dobbins
• Jerry Jeudy
• Josh Downs
• Josh Palmer
• Luke Musgrave

 

Round 13

Top target: Ty Chandler

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023. 

But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Next best: Jahan Dotson

Dotson is coming off a disappointing 2023 season but is now super cheap for a 24-year-old, former first-round pick. 

Curtis Samuel’s departure means Dotson is essentially locked into a top-two WR job. And Washington upgraded at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick of this spring's draft.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Kimani Vidal
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Brandin Cooks
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Marvin Mims

 

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

 

 

Non PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 10, 11, or 12

Rounds 1 & 2

Top targets: Jonathan Taylor & Saquon Barkley

Despite ankle and thumb injuries, Taylor finished fifth among RBs in Non PPR points per game last year. He’s still in his prime at 25 and will remain a huge part of an ascending Colts offense.

Barkley turned 288 touches (in 14 games) into a RB8 finish in Non PPR points per game last year. Now he gets a huge upgrade in situation going from New York to Philadelphia.

Next best: Kyren Williams & Puka Nacua

Williams was excellent last season, ranking top-10 among 49 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, rush yards over expected per attempt, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade. Just as importantly, his volume was excellent. Only Christian McCaffrey averaged more expected PPR points per game.

Rookie RB Blake Corum figures to cut into that workload a bit. But we’re expecting Williams to remain the Rams’ clear lead back.

Nacua is coming off a historic rookie season, scoring the third most PPR points by a first-year WR in NFL history. The two guys ahead of him on that list: Randy Moss and Ja’Marr Chase.

Returning to the same offense with the same QB as an ascending 23-year-old, Nacua is a safe bet for WR1 production with upside into the top-5.

Other options

• Derrick Henry
• Garrett Wilson

 

Rounds 3 & 4

Top targets: Jaylen Waddle & Jalen Hurts

Waddle missed three games and parts of a couple more last season and got unlucky in the TD department (5.6% TD rate). Yet he still finished 22nd among WRs in Non PPR points per game, setting a career high and ranking eighth among 84 qualifying WRs in yards per route run.

This is a young, explosive WR in a strong offense that still boasts WR1 upside.

Hurts is about a round cheaper this year than last, despite turning in his second straight top-three fantasy finish. 

He returns all his key weapons from last season and adds RB Saquon Barkley to the arsenal. The Eagles also figure to play faster under new OC Kellen Moore, boosting Hurts’ fantasy outlook.

Next best: Isiah Pacheco & D.J. Moore

Pacheco finished 14th among RBs in Non PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who remains unsigned.

With mega-bust Clyde Edwards-Helaire behind him on the depth chart, Pacheco is in for a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Moore finished WR6 in Non PPR points last year, despite playing on the No. 27 passing offense. The arrival of QB Caleb Williams and OC Shane Waldron should mean big boosts in pass volume and efficiency this season.

That’ll help offset the increased target competition from WRs Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze.

Other options

• Ken Walker
• Joe Mixon
• Cooper Kupp
• D.K. Metcalf

 

Rounds 5 & 6

Top targets: David Montgomery & Tee Higgins

Montgomery tallied 13 TDs and a RB6 finish in Non PPR points per game last year. Jahmyr Gibbs might steal a bit more work this year, but Montgomery should remain a goal-line fixture for a high-scoring Lions offense.

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He ranked top-17 in Non PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022 and is just 25.

Next best: James Conner & Joe Burrow

Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year. In fact, he set career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• PFF rushing grade

Conner finished seventh at his position in Non PPR points per game. Despite the addition of rookie Trey Benson, expect Conner to again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.

Burrow and his WRs dealt with injuries throughout last season. But he’s an easy rebound candidate with better health after finishing QB8 and QB4 the previous two years.

Burrow and Higgins is a fun stack at this turn.

Other options

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Amari Cooper
• George Pickens
• George Kittle

 

Rounds 7 & 8

Top targets: Raheem Mostert & Jonathon Brooks

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Non PPR points in offensive guru HC Mike McDaniel’s scheme. There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into this price tag.

Brooks is a rookie RB with a limited college resume coming off a torn ACL. But there are lots of reasons to love him at this price:

• Brooks was awesome in his 10 games as Texas' feature back last year, averaging 114 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards per game.
• Carolina traded up to make him the first RB off the board in this spring's draft.
• He joins a backfield with weak competition from Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders.
• New Panthers HC Dave Canales just helped Rachaad White to a breakout season.

Next best: Calvin Ridley & DeAndre Hopkins

We’re buying the Tennessee passing game this season based mostly on a big projected increase in volume.

The Titans never ranked higher than 25th in pass attempts in six seasons under Mike Vrabel. They finished 30th each of the past two seasons.

New HC Brian Callahan comes from Cincinnati, where the Bengals ranked top-14 in pass attempts in four of his five seasons.

The philosophy shift makes Ridley and Hopkins nice values in 2024 fantasy drafts. Hopkins beat Ridley in most key efficiency metrics last year. But Ridley is younger and got a big deal from the Titans in free agency. They’ll likely wind up close in targets this year.

Other options

• Javonte Williams
• Tony Pollard
• Jake Ferguson
• David Njoku

 

Rounds 9 & 10

Top targets: Jayden Daniels & Dallas Goedert

This is a good spot to secure your QB1 and TE1 if you haven’t yet.

Daniels’ combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019.

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 14th among TE in Non PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE6 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

There’s a tier drop at TE behind Goedert.

Next best: Brian Robinson & Courtland Sutton

Robinson figures to lose most passing-down snaps to RB Austin Ekeler, but that’s less of a concern in Non PPR. Robinson is a good bet to control Washington’s rushing work. He beat Ekeler last year in every major rushing efficiency metric, including rush yards over expected per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating.

Sutton isn't an exciting pick. But he's coming off a Non PPR WR26 finish last year, fueled by 10 TDs. He could see a target boost this year with WR Jerry Jeudy off to Cleveland.

Other options

• Tyjae Spears
• Jameson Williams
• Tyler Lockett

 

Rounds 11 & 12

Top targets: Kendre Miller & Mike Williams

Injuries marred Miller's rookie season. But he was an exciting prospect heading into the league last offseason and flashed in Week 18. Miller finds himself in a 2024 Saints backfield with a pair of declining veterans in Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. He's one of our favorite 2024 fantasy football sleepers.

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Next best: Zach Charbonnet & Pat Freiermuth

Charbonnet was clearly behind Ken Walker when both were healthy last year. But Seattle’s new coaching staff gives Charbonnet an opportunity to earn more work this season. At minimum, he’s a high-end handcuff

Freiermuth disappointed last year, but this offseason has been good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Other options

• Jerome Ford
• Gabe Davis
• Jerry Jeudy
• Rashid Shaheed
• Luke Musgrave

 

Rounds 13 & 14

Top targets: Ty Chandler & Jahan Dotson

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved after a nice finish to 2023. But his real upside is as a handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons.

Dotson is coming off a disappointing 2023 season but is now super cheap for a 24-year-old, former first-round pick. Curtis Samuel’s departure means Dotson is essentially locked into a top-two WR job. And Washington upgraded at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick of this spring's draft.

Next best: MarShawn Lloyd & Brandin Cooks

Lloyd is an exciting rookie RB. He ripped off 7.1 yards per carry at USC last year and then clocked a 4.46-second 40 time at 220 pounds at the Combine. The Packers made him a Round 3 pick this spring. We'll see if he pushes RB Josh Jacobs for work. But, at minimum, Lloyd is a high-upside handcuff.

Cooks got off to a slow-ish start with the Cowboys last year. But he ranked 13th among WRs in Non PPR points from Week 10 on. The offseason departure of WR Michael Gallup – plus a shaky backfield – could mean more targets for Cooks in 2024.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Kimani Vidal
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Marvin Mims

 

Rounds 15 & 16

Top target: K & DST

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

 

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The Ultimate Non PPR Draft Strategy Guide: A Customized, Dynamic Cheat Sheet

Having round-by-round strategy heading into your draft is important.

But fantasy football drafts are unpredictable. You need to be nimble. You need to adjust on the fly to capture the most value.

You need a customized, dynamic cheat sheet.

The Draft War Room takes our award-winning player projections and applies them to your league’s exact rules to give you a precise set of rankings.

Then it recalibrates throughout your draft based on 17 value indicators to make sure you’re making the absolute best pick each time you’re on the clock.

CREATE YOUR DRAFT WAR ROOM NOW!