10-Team Draft Strategy

 

How do you draft in a 10-team league?

The key to your 10-team draft strategy is chasing optimal performers at as many spots as possible.

You might think that’s the obvious goal for any fantasy football draft – and you wouldn’t be wrong.

But the smaller your league gets, the more important it becomes to find individual advantages.

In a 10-team league, there will be enough good players to give every team a solid-to-good lineup. That’s why you’ll need to try for optimal production in as many spots as possible.

That might mean grabbing a QB or TE earlier than you typically would in a 12-team draft. It might also mean collecting multiple risk-reward types at a certain position so that you can benefit from whichever one breaks out.

And it can be as simple as pinpointing the players with the most breakout potential throughout your draft.

We’ve Got Tools to Help You Build

We’ve built our 3D projections to help you optimize that roster.

We combine:

1. Award-winning projections from our fantasy football analysts
2. Ceiling and floor projections to capture a player’s range of outcomes
3. Consensus projections from 38 other fantasy sites

The result: a much better representation of player value, one that will continuously update as you draft.

The Draft War Room will guide you throughout your draft. And it’s just one of many fantasy football tools we’ve built to help you win.

See the Logic at Work

Below you’ll get a preview of the Draft War Room’s guidance.

I’ve used a sample board for a 10-team, non-PPR league and run through drafts from every position to give you top strategies.

Simply choose your draft position to get started …

 

10-Team PPR Guide for Pick 1

Round 1

Top Target: Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey (100.0 3D Value points) sits pretty comfortably ahead of:

• No. 2 CeeDee Lamb (94.7)
• and No. 3 Tyreek Hill (89.1)

… in this format.

And he checks in way ahead of the next RB, Breece Hall (77.8). So he gets his own section here.

It’s gonna take an injury for McCaffrey to let you down. And you can insure against that possibility.

 

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: Travis Etienne & Deebo Samuel

If drafting goes according to ADP for this format, then you’ll probably find Etienne clearly leading the 3D Values at this turn.

Drafting a pair of workhorse RBs in top-half NFL offenses to start your non-PPR draft certainly ain’t a bad idea.

After you tap that second RB, the board should push a bunch of WRs to the top – all rated pretty close together.

Next Best: Joe Mixon & Mike Evans

It’s OK to roll with your favorite among Samuel, Evans and London. They’re separated by just 3.2 points in 3D Value on the sample board I’m using.

Even if you need to start three WRs, this will probably be a good turn to grab one RB and one WR. The wideouts over the next few rounds should support you just fine in a non-PPR format.

Mixon trails Etienne here but goes from one good offensive situation to another. Houston shifted away from RB Dameon Pierce last season, and the team clearly believes Mixon to be a significant upgrade over Devin Singletary. (Otherwise the Texans could have kept Singletary for less.)

Other options: Drake London, Jalen Hurts

Hurts is an interesting name here. He’s not likely to reach the top of your recommendations by 3.01, and you’re certainly welcome to ignore QB this early.

But if you want him, you probably won’t get another shot. And the top shelf at QB – Hurts leads Josh Allen in our QB rankings – makes sense in Round 3.

 

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: Josh Jacobs & Jaylen Waddle

RBs likely lead your board again here, and this looks like another good turn for splitting your picks between RB and WR.

Jacobs and Walker carry more risk than Etienne and Mixon at the last turn. One joins a new team that has tended to split backfield work. The other gets a new coaching staff, including an OC straight from college.

There’s more guesswork to the workload for each player than the RBs we were viewing at the 2-3 turn.

Next Best: Kenneth Walker III & Brandon Aiyuk

If you want, you can let that guide you toward doubling up at WR here – especially if you need to start three each week.

None of the WRs listed at this turn is likely to make it back to you at the end of Round 6.

RB, on the other hand, will continue to present potential fantasy starters for at least one more turn.

Other Options

D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp, Malik Nabers

 

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: Tee Higgins & David Montgomery

The Draft War Room favors yet another WR-RB split at this turn. If you follow that at every turn, then you’ll emerge from Round 7 with four RBs and 3 WRs.

(Feel free to shift that to three RBs and four WRs, especially if you start three wideouts.)

That would lay a strong base for your non-PPR roster.

Take a look at this start, though, and see if you’d like the team better if you could go back to that 2-3 turn and dump the player from your current position of four to swap in Jalen Hurts.

There’s not a right or wrong answer at this point in the year. But that’s really the point of this exercise and playing around with the Mock Draft Trainer.

Next Best: Tank Dell & James Conner

Dell and Conner present alternatives for your WR-RB combo here, and you shouldn’t expect either to get back to you at the end of Round 8.

The downside with Dell: He resides in a crowded Houston pass-catching corps that traded for Stefon Diggs this offseason.

The upside: We don’t know yet just how the Texans will split targets and who will perform most efficiently.

• You can’t ignore Nico Collins’ big 2023 production and matching offseason contract extension.
• Diggs brings a record of target earning and WR1-level production.
• But Dell also earned targets and delivered efficient production right away.

His 4.3 receptions per game as a rookie beat Collins’ averages for each of his first two seasons (2.4 and 3.7).

Other Options

Kyle Pitts, Jonathan Brooks, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray

ADP says eight QBs are likely to be drafted by this point. So you’ll likely see Love and Murray (or some other QB if a league mate drafted one of them) enter the list at this turn. But you likely won’t see them near the top.

That’s because you don’t generally stand to gain much from drafting the ninth or 10th QB in a 10-team draft. 

Sure, you could happen to land the guy who goes off this season. Love and Murray both sport the upside to do that. But so do some other QBs still on the board. (Read on to see who.)

And if eight of your league mates already have QBs, then there likely won’t be many drafted before your 8-9 turn.

 

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: Jayden Daniels & Jake Ferguson

ADP says you can pass on Daniels here and likely get another shot next turn, but I wouldn’t recommend trusting that if you get here without a QB.

Daniels ranks sixth among QBs in our ceiling projections. He’s exactly the kind of player you’re looking for if you wait on the position.

Ferguson, meanwhile, comes off a TE8 non-PPR finish in his first full starting turn.

He ranked second among Cowboys and seventh among TEs in targets, and Ferguson’s best outing of the year came in the playoffs (10-93-3) – so it didn’t even count for his impressive 2023 line.

Next Best: Jaylen Warren & Brock Bowers

This is easily the most different set of “next best” players vs. “top targets” to this point. Let that signal how much sense Daniels and Ferguson make at this stage. There aren’t other players at their positions especially close.

Sure, Bowers pops up next among TEs if you mark Ferguson already drafted. But he falls well short of Ferguson in:

• baseline projection
• floor projection
• and consensus projection

… and narrowly beats him in ceiling projection.

There’s no denying Bowers’ talent. But he’s a riskier bet than Ferguson for 2024.

If you opt to wait for the rookie Raider, draft an insurance TE later.

Other options

Najee Harris, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Christian Watson

 

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: Christian Watson & Tyjae Spears

Watson’s a good bet to make at this point.

The history of hamstring injuries certainly carries risk. That’s why you’ll find Watson fairly high among WRs in risk of injury (tied for 18th), according to our Injury Guide algorithms.

But Green Bay also treated him like a lead WR during the short time he was actually healthy last year – including peppering Watson with end-zone targets.

Only five players league wide drew more than Watson’s 15 last season, even though he only played nine games.

Next Best: Marquise Brown/Xavier Worthy & Devin Singletary

The RB names might vary based on who remains undrafted in your league and who moves up or down our rankings amid summer reports and injuries. The main takeaway: This is another good turn for grabbing one RB and one WR.

Of course, you can opt for two WRs if you’d prefer, based on what you drafted to this point.

For this exercise, Brown and Worthy sit tied in 3D Value points on my board. Perhaps training camp will push one Chiefs WR clearly ahead of the other.

You could also consider just snagging both at this turn to benefit from however the season plays out.

That said, expect both Brown and Worthy to rise in ADP if we get a Rashee Rice suspension announced.

Other Options

Rome Odunze, Jameson Williams, Courtland Sutton, Brock Bowers

 

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Dallas Goedert & Kendre Miller

Goedert pops to the top of the board here even with a TE already rostered.

That might change if you elected to draft a higher-level TE much earlier. And even if it doesn’t, it’s OK to pass on a backup here – especially if you grabbed a top-tier starter.

If you waited for Jake Ferguson, then adding insurance/a platoon mate here isn’t a bad idea.

At RB, Miller might well pop to the top of your board at an earlier turn. Feel free to grab him then. ADP says you can reasonably expect him to get here. Perhaps that changes as camp and preseason unfold.

Either way, he finds a nice upside situation for 2024. Alvin Kamara heads into his age-29 season off poor rushing and receiving efficiency last year.

Next Best: Jameson Williams & Caleb Williams

Both Williamses arrive as upside picks at this stage. And that upside makes both candidates to come off the board earlier.

Whether it’s these guys or someone else, this is a good spot for an upside WR and a backup QB to support Jayden Daniels.

If you opted for a “safer” QB earlier, then it’s OK to push off drafting a backup – even to finish your draft without a second QB.

Your 10-team, 1-QB league should always have options on waivers.

Other Options

Trey Benson, Gus Edwards, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett, Brian Thomas Jr.

 

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Across these rounds, you should add one more upside play at whatever position makes sense and address the final two starting spots.

Try to target a kicker in a good offense.

As for D, we’ve added Trust Factor this year to help differentiate your options. That favors the DST units with more favorable season-opening matchups and downgrades those with poor matchups.

Why? Because you should target matchups more than trying to lean on a season-long starter at that position.

 

10-Team Non-PPR Guide for Pick 2 or 3

Round 1

Top Target: CeeDee Lamb

We’re assuming, of course, that Christian McCaffrey went first. The fact that two WRs follow him in these recommendations – both with sizable leads over RB2 Breece Hall – is another mark in McCaffrey’s favor as the top option.

Next Best: Tyreek Hill

Arguments don’t really need to be made for Lamb or Hill. Both dominated target shares in good offenses last year and produced efficiently on that usage.

If you just feel better going RB for the format, that’s fine. But practice both ways with your Mock Draft Trainer to see which supplies you a better roster in the end.

Other Options

Breece Hall

 

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: Travis Etienne & De’Von Achane

This is a good range to grab two RBs, assuming you went WR in Round 1.

Etienne comes off an inefficient 2023 but served as Jacksonville’s workhorse, ranking seventh league wide in opportunity share.

Achane’s the Opposite

He’s not built for big workloads but proved wildly efficient as a rookie (7.8 yards per carry; TD on 8.5% of his touches).

Achane will have a tough time matching that efficiency in 2024, but he’s likely to get more work – if only because he played in just 11 games last season.

He pairs well with Etienne as a floor-ceiling combo.

Next Best: Joe Mixon & Josh Jacobs

Mixon and Jacobs both fit more of the Etienne mold.

Mixon moves from one good offense (Cincinnati) to another (Houston). We’ll see exactly how he fares with his new team, but the Texans’ move points to continued heavy workloads.

Jacobs comes off a terrible 2023 and goes to a Packers offense that prefers to spread RB work. He might be most unpredictable among this quartet of RBs – but he’s also just two years removed from displaying ultimate upside.

Other Options

Kenneth Walker III, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, Drake London

 

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: Deebo Samuel & Kenneth Walker III

Leaving Round 5 with three RBs and two WRs looks like a good start for your 10-team, non-PPR draft.

Samuel would likely climb in ADP if Brandon Aiyuk gets his trade request granted. Until then, though, he’s a nice WR2 target in this range.

Walker faces some uncertainty under a new coaching staff. But he ranked fourth in the league in carry share last year and could see that role unchanged.

He’s a nice fit as a RB3.

Next Best: Jaylen Waddle & Mark Andrews

If Walker’s gone, you might see another RB such as David Montgomery jump to the top of your Round 5 recommendations.

He’d be fine, but Montgomery’s ADP currently sits early in Round 7. So you might get another shot at him. And even if you don’t, there should be other attractive RBs in that range.

Waddle makes sense as a fall back here if Samuel’s gone. If Walker goes, however, you might not necessarily want to go RB.

Mark Andrews Looks Slightly Undervalued

The Ravens veteran sits second in our TE rankings but third at the position in ADP for this format – nearly two full rounds behind No. 2 Sam LaPorta (5.1 vs. 3.3).

He’s a strong piece to add if he gets to you in this range. ADP says he and another four TEs won’t make it back to you in Round 6.

If you lean away from Andrews here (two WRs would be fine as well), you’re probably best off waiting until the 8-9 turn to address TE …

Other options: 

Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp

 

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: Joe Burrow & Tee Higgins

“Stacking” QBs with pass-catchers has become more popular in fantasy football over the past few years.

Primarily a tactic for best ball leagues, it can offer similar benefits – you get points on both ends of successful passing plays – for lineup-setting formats.

It’s far less of a “must” on non-best ball rosters, but the Cincinnati stack here would be fine. That’s because Burrow carries top-5 upside among QBs. And a healthy Higgins should clearly rank as Cincinnati’s No. 2 target – likely closer to Ja’Marr Chase than to the No. 3 option.

Next Best: Dak Prescott & David Montgomery

If Burrow’s gone, then Prescott will likely jump up your board. The Dallas QB finished third at the position in fantasy scoring last season and makes plenty of sense.

If you find Higgins gone, however, he’s likely replaced by a RB.

However you get there, leaving Round 7 with three RBs, three WRs, and your starter at either TE or QB looks like a good path for this format.

Other Options

James Conner, Jonathon Brooks, Kyle Pitts, Tank Dell, Amari Cooper, George Pickens

 

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: Raheem Mostert & Jake Ferguson

Mostert’s emergence reveals the impact of Upside Mode kicking on.

The 32-year-old is far from a sure thing. But his ADP reflects that. From this area of your draft, Mostert presents more upside than risk.

Upside Mode adds value to a player’s ceiling projection and likelihood of hitting that ceiling to boost just such a player.

You Can Steal a TE Mid-Draft

Ferguson? He’s simply a good value at this point.

He finished eighth in fantasy points among TEs in his first full starting season – despite his best fantasy outing (10-93-3) coming in the playoffs.

Next Best: Javonte Williams & Brock Bowers

Like Mostert, Williams doesn’t fit the “safe” category at RB. But he does present upside.

Williams ranked 21st in opportunity share among RBs last season, despite coming off a serious knee injury. His ADP: RB29.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Watson

 

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: Christian Watson & Jayden Daniels

If you get Watson at this point in Round 10, go ahead and thank your league mates.

The risk has been mitigated. So you can just view Watson as the guy Green Bay has treated as a potential lead WR when healthy over the past two seasons.

Daniels pops as an option even if you drafted Burrow earlier.

If both hit, you’re in great shape.

Of course, you don’t need to draft a second QB at all as part of your 10-team draft strategy.

Next Best: Marquise Brown/Xavier Worthy & Tyjae Spears

Brown and Worthy sit tied in 3D Value points for this format. Feel free to select your favorite or gauge the recent buzz if you’re drafting during camp.

Spears appears headed for a decent role despite Tony Pollard’s arrival. HC Brian Callahan has continually mentioned both RBs together, calling them “interchangeable” on multiple occasions.

Other Options

Kendre Miller, Devin Singletary, Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Brock Bowers

 

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Jameson Williams & Trey Benson

Here’s an upside duo.

The talent is obvious with Williams, who hit the league as the 12th overall pick.

His career opened with a pair of lackluster seasons. But his fantasy football news  has already generated buzz in 2024.

Trey Benson Delivers Handcuff Upside

Benson doesn’t appear set for standalone value this season as long as James Conner’s healthy.

But if the veteran starter goes down, then the third-round rookie looks like his top replacement.

Every team has a potential handcuff target. But Benson’s contingent value resides with a starter who has missed 2+ games in each of his seven seasons.

Next Best: Courtland Sutton & Gus Edwards

Sutton might not be exciting but has already operated as his team’s lead WR. That’s enough to make him a value pick in this range of your draft.

Similarly, Edwards heads toward 2024 as the best bet to lead the Chargers’ backfield in carries. That role gains value for a team expected to go run-heavy.

Other Options

Dallas Goedert, Caleb Williams, Chase Brown, Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett

 

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Across these rounds, you should add one more upside play at whatever position makes sense and address the final two starting spots.

Try to target a kicker in a good offense.

As for D, we’ve added Trust Factor this year to help differentiate your options. That favors the DST units with more favorable season-opening matchups and downgrades those with poor matchups.

Why? Because you should target matchups more than trying to lean on a season-long starter at that position.

 

10-Team Half-PPR Guide for Pick 4, 5, 6, or 7

Round 1

Top Target: Breece Hall

Starting with any of the four guys listed for this range would be nice. Exactly who you get will depend on two things:

1. Where you pick (i.e. who’s available for you)
2. Whether you want a RB or WR to start

This quartet includes three players who have proved their fantasy studliness and a fourth (Robinson) who appears poised to do so.

Next Best: Bijan Robinson

Jefferson likely sits ahead of Robinson on your initial board. But if Breece Hall’s gone by your pick, then Robinson will jump ahead (unless you start three WRs).

You can tell by the slim initial 3D-Value margins that there’s not really a wrong answer.

Other Options

Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase

 

Round 2

Top Targets: Derrick Henry

Even if you start with a Round 1 RB, the board likely favors RB again here. Two key factors drive that:

1. ADP says these RBs will fly off the board in Round 2 of 10-team non-PPR drafts.
2. There should be plenty left at WR over the next three rounds.

Henry’s easy to like. Sure, he’s 30. But he showed no worrisome signs last year and has been a physical outlier his entire life.

Ravens HC John Harbaugh has also already said that you should expect Baltimore Henry to look a lot like Tennessee Henry.

Translation: We signed this guy to give him the ball a lot.

Next Best: Kyren Williams

Williams will require watching through summer. He’s currently nursing a minor foot issue. If that lingers into training camp, then it’ll become less “minor” by the day.

If he’s healthy, though, we expect Williams to remain the clear backfield leader in what should be a good offense.

If he makes you queasy on draft day, feel free to opt for one of the other RBs below.

Other Options

Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Isaiah Pacheco, De’Von Achane

 

Round 3

Top Targets: Jalen Hurts

Hurts sits solidly ahead of Josh Allen in our QB rankings, and this is a fine time to grab our top-ranked QB.

Hurts’ nine top-5 fantasy finishes last season were matched only by Josh Allen, who lost his top two WRs in the offseason.

Next Best: Mike Evans

If you don’t feel like going QB just yet, then this marks the perfect time to grab a WR – especially if you opened with a pair of RBs.

Other Options

Drake London, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk

 

Round 4

Top Targets: Deebo Samuel

Why could you afford to draft a QB last round, besides that fact that Hurts is awesome? Just look at the list of WRs that ADP says will be available at this turn.

Sure, we can’t be sure that your league will draft according to ADP. But if it doesn’t, then you’ll likely find some of the previously mentioned WRs available here.

Next Best: Jaylen Waddle

Worst case: You play in one of the few WR-mad, 10-team, non-PPR leagues. If that’s the case, just take another RB here and really punish your league mates.

One of two things will happen in that situation:

1. You’ll open the season loaded with RB production and find some RB-needy league mates.
2. You’ll suffer an injury to a starter-level RB but already have his replacement loaded.

Either way, you’ll be able to fill in at WR – assuming you only need to start two.

Other options

Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp

 

Round 5

Top Targets: Jaylen Waddle

ADP says you might get another shot at Samuel here, but I’m not trusting that.

If you do, great! Draft him. Regardless of what you already have. Just don’t go through the first four rounds assuming that you’ll see him (or Waddle) in Round 5.

We’ll go ahead with Waddle here because he’s the top recommendation if available, assuming you got every top pick to this point.

Next Best: D.J. Moore

If Waddle’s not there, then move on to one of these next four WRs. And if the whole group’s picked over, then someone mentioned higher has probably slid.

The overall takeaway: You can pass on WR through three rounds and likely still get two good options.

Moore faces much more target competition this year. But the guy finished WR6 in non-PPR last season with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent throwing passes in an offense that ranked 27th in pass attempts.

He’s a solid-to-strong bet at this point.

Other Options

Cooper Kupp, Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith, Rhamondre Stevenson

 

Round 6

Top Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson

If you get here with two RBs, one QB, and two WRs, then the board goes RB-heavy at the top.

Stevenson faces a receiving challenge from new arrival Antonio Gibson. But the Patriots also handed their incumbent a big contract extension. That at least positions him as the clear lead ball carrier – for an offense with either a limited veteran or a rookie at QB.

Next Best: David Montgomery

Montgomery delivered RB6 per-game fantasy scoring in non-PPR last year.

His TD rate (5.9%) might indicate 2024 regression. But Jamaal Williams scored at an even higher pace for the 2022 Lions (6.5%), before Detroit let him walk to pay Montgomery early in free agency.

He should remain a strong producer in one of the league’s top offenses.

Other Options

Jonathan Brooks, Tee Higgins, James Conner, Tank Dell, George Pickens

If you did grab an extra RB earlier, then you’ll find attractive WR options in this list.

 

Round 7

Top Target: James Conner

You may remember Conner from such feats as finishing among the top 12 RBs in non-PPR points per game each of the past three seasons.

Conner and his nearly $9 million cap hit look poised to control the backfield once again – as long as he stays healthy.

Next Best: Jonathon Brooks

Don’t want the old guy? Here’s the opposite.

Brooks arrives with no workload guarantees. But the Panthers drafted him in Round 2, with no other RB leaving the board before Round 3.

He’s Carolina’s most talented back, which means upside. How much will depend on Brooks’ usage.

Other Options

Amari Cooper, George Pickens, Kyle Pitts

 

Round 8

Top Targets: DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins ranks among our most underrated fantasy football players for 2024.

He faces a target-share challenge from the arrival of Calvin Ridley, who’s about 2.5 years younger. But Hopkins has historically garnered larger target shares.

Check out their rankings among WRs in that category since 2018 (Ridley’s first season):

Hopkins also sports a higher fantasy peak, with a top average of 14.4 non-PPR points per game in 2017 vs. Ridley’s high of 12.8 (in 2020).

Hopkins even has two other seasons on record higher than Ridley’s peak (13.6 and 13.9).

Next Best: Terry McLaurin

Jayden Daniels might be the best QB of McLaurin’s career. We won’t know that, of course, until he actually gets on the field in the regular season. But he likely can’t get much worse than what Washington’s rolled out there.

McLaurin and the other WRs listed here all look good at this stage in your draft.

This also looks like a good range for QB if you didn’t take Hurts (or any other QB) earlier.

Other Options

Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Christian Kirk, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love

 

Round 9

Top Targets: Jake Ferguson

Ferguson’s availability this late looks like a key reason the Draft War Room didn’t make a TE your top recommendation earlier.

He ranked eighth among TEs in scoring for this format in his first starting turn – and Ferguson’s best outing (10-93-3) didn’t even come until the playoffs.

The TE ranked second among Cowboys in targets last year and could do so again.

Next Best: Raheem Mostert

I know Mostert’s not going to score as many fantasy points as he did last year.

You know Mostert’s fantasy scoring is gonna regress.

But the market knows it a little too much.

Mostert finished RB2 in non-PPR last year. His ADP for the format: RB26.

You can even put him on a roster that already includes Achane.

Other Options

Rashee Rice, Javonte Williams

 

Round 10

Top Targets: Javonte Williams

Williams easily led Denver’s backfield in 2023 despite limited effectiveness coming off his serious knee injury.

If he maintains that role this year, we should see a better version in just his age-24 campaign.

This draft position builds in the risk that he loses work in a crowded backfield.

Next Best: Christian Watson

Watson’s sitting here marinating in upside.

Green Bay also treated him like a lead WR during the short time he was actually healthy last year – including peppering Watson with end-zone targets.

Only five players league wide drew more than Watson’s 15 last season, even though he only played nine games.

And he says they figured out his hamstring problem this offseason. He’ll need to prove that’s behind him, but this is plenty late enough to make the benefit outweigh the risk.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson

 

Round 11

Top Targets: Xavier Worthy

This first-round rookie faces a wide range of potential outcomes. That includes trailing Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown. 

But it also includes benefiting from a potential Rice suspension and outperforming Brown (now on his third NFL team in six seasons).

This is the point in your draft when you should be chasing the upside and downplaying the risk.

Next Best: Rome Odunze

Same deal with Odunze, who’s basically in the same position. He doesn’t have a teammate awaiting suspension announcement, but he also doesn’t have Travis Kelce.

Odunze does have top-10 NFL Draft capital, though, and could outperform Keenan Allen right away.

Other Options

Jameson Williams, Courtland Sutton, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

 

Round 12

Top Targets: Dallas Goedert

Do you need a second TE? No.

Is a second one fine to grab at this stage to platoon? Yes.

Or you could even wait until this range and make Goedert your first. He’s not thrilling but resides in one of the league’s best scoring offenses and should rank third on the team in targets.

Next Best: Courtland Sutton

The value gap on Sutton isn’t as drastic as it is with Mostert, but the case is similar.

He sits just 49th in WR ADP for this format, despite finishing WR26 last year.

Sutton makes for a nice reserve option.

Other Options

Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett, Jayden Daniels

 

Round 13

Top Targets: Kendre Miller

Miller struggled through an injury-marred rookie season. That leaves him needing to prove he’s worth fantasy attention, and we’ll be watching the summer reports.

But the basis is there. Miller averaged 6.7 yards per carry for his college career and then came off the board fourth among RBs in last year’s draft – ahead of Tyjae Spears and De’Von Achane.

Alvin Kamara heads into his age-29 season off 3.9 yards per carry and a career-low 6.2 yards per catch. Jamaal Williams seems not good at football anymore.

Next Best: Trey Benson

Benson wins on upside, but he’ll likely require patience (unless/until James Conner gets hurt again).

Benson averaged 6.1 yards per carry and 11.2 per catch across two years at Florida State before landing with the Cardinals in Round 3.

Other options

Gus Edwards, Chase Brown, Ty Chandler, Dalton Schultz, Mike Williams

 

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Across these rounds, you should add one more upside play at whatever position makes sense and address the final two starting spots.

Try to target a kicker in a good offense.

As for D, we’ve added Trust Factor this year to help differentiate your options. That favors the DST units with more favorable season-opening matchups and downgrades those with poor matchups.

Why? Because you should target matchups more than trying to lean on a season-long starter at that position.

 

10-Team Draft Strategy for Pick 8, 9, or 10

Rounds 1 & 2

Top Target: Justin Jefferson & Derrick Henry

If you can kick off your draft from the end of the round with two players capable of leading their positions in scoring this year, then you should feel pretty good.

Jefferson has finished three straight years among the top five in non-PPR points per game and landed No. 1 in total points in 2022.

Henry led the format in total points in 2020 and then points per game in 2021 and 2022.

He slid to 13th in points per game last year but showed no underlying signs of performance decline.

Next Best: Jonathan Taylor & Derrick Henry

This is the only spot where I’ve used the same player in both the “top target” and “next best” slots.

I do so to emphasize not only Henry’s standing, but also the Draft War Room’s recommendation that you start RB-RB if Jefferson leaves the board before your first-round selection.

Even if Henry happens to go, you’ll likely see several more RBs rise.

ADP for this format says RBs will go fast in Round 2, while WR value will remain available through the 3-4 turn.

Other Options

Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacua, A.J. Brown, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Garrett Wilson

 

Rounds 3 & 4

Top Targets: Jalen Hurts & De’Von Achane

Hurts has run for at least 10 TDs each of the past three years, and topped 750 rushing yards in two of those seasons.

He and Josh Allen deliver high fantasy floors and ceilings. But Hurts gets the edge on Allen in 2024 because he didn’t lose his top two WRs (like Allen did).

Getting a top-shelf QB gives you even more of an advantage here than it would it a league of 12 teams or more.

De’Von Achane Presents Exciting Upside

If you get here with two RBs already rostered, then a WR fits better as your second pick. If not, then chasing the ceiling with Achane looks good here.

If you’re willing to put up with weekly volatility, the payoff is the scoring spikes.

Achane delivered four top-5 weekly finishes among just nine games of 20+ snaps played as a rookie.

Expect more touches in Year 2.

Next Best: Mike Evans & Kenneth Walker III

Don’t feel like drafting your QB yet (or miss out on Hurts)? No prob.

This makes a fine turn for grabbing a WR and a RB. You can also consider selecting a pair of WRs if you opened RB-RB. None of the wideouts listed here is likely to get back to you in Round 5.

Walker looks better as a RB3 than RB2 this season, given the uncertain workload that comes with a new coaching staff. He ranked fourth in the league in carry share last year, though.

Other Options

Mike Evans, Drake London, Nico Collins, Deebo Samuel, Josh Jacobs

 

Rounds 5 & 6

Top Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson & Tee Higgins

Another RB-WR split looks good here, and the specifics can depend on what you bring to this turn.

Stevenson faces a challenge to his receiving work with Antonio Gibson’s arrival and will likely play in a weak offense. But he finished 13th in scoring just two years ago in an offense that ranked 31st in points and 30th in total yards.

Higgins heads into his final Bengals season but remains the clear No. 2 target in an offense that let its WR3 (Tyler Boyd) walk in free agency.

Higgins ranked 16th and 11th in non-PPR points per game the last two years we got a healthy Joe Burrow (2021 and 2022).

Next Best: David Montgomery & Malik Nabers

Montgomery’s first Lions season found him ranking sixth in points per game in this format.

His team collectively ranked first and third in total RB points the past two years, since Ben Johnson became OC.

Nabers looks like a good immediate bet to lead the Giants in targets – and he could dominate that category.

The 15.9 yards he averaged per reception across three years in the SEC show the rookie’s efficiency upside.

Other Options

DeVonta Smith, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Tank Dell, Amari Cooper

 

Rounds 7 & 8

Top Targets: James Conner & Amari Cooper

Conner’s three Arizona seasons have found him fifth, 12th, and seventh among RBs in non-PPR points per game.

Perhaps he loses some work to rookie Trey Benson, but that potential’s baked into this draft position.

Another RB-WR split here gives you a chance to leave Round 8 with Hurts and your top three at both RB and WR – plus a fourth at whichever spot makes sense.

Next Best: Najee Harris & DeAndre Hopkins

Harris looks better in non-PPR than half- or full-PPR.

We’ll see exactly how new OC Arthur Smith splits work between Harris and Jaylen Warren. But Smith’s certainly been friendly to RB work across two stops.

His three years in Atlanta produced the NFL’s third most run-heavy offense by neutral pass rate. His two years as OC in Tennessee found the Titans second most run-heavy.

DeAndre Hopkins ADP Mitigates Risk

Speaking of the Titans, Hopkins has a solid-to-good chance of remaining their lead receiver even with Calvin Ridley’s arrival.

The veteran sports a longer history of drawing dominant target shares and a higher fantasy peak than his new teammate.

Is there risk that Hopkins declines in his age-32 season? Sure. But how risky can an eighth-round WR in a non-PPR league truly be?

Other Options

Jayden Reed, Terry McLaurin, Raheem Mostert

 

Rounds 9 & 10

Top Targets: Jake Ferguson & Raheem Mostert

Ferguson’s availability this late looks like a key reason the Draft War Room didn’t make a TE your top recommendation earlier.

He ranked eighth among TEs in scoring for this format in his first starting turn – and Ferguson’s best outing (10-93-3) didn’t even come until the playoffs.

The TE ranked second among Cowboys in targets last year and could do so again.

Mostert – like Hopkins – presents some age risk. He’s also almost certain to regress from last year’s 21 total TDs.

But the RB’s market price more than bakes those risk factors in.

Next Best: Javonte Williams & Christian Watson

You can prioritize either of these guys over Mostert if you’d like. And Watson might pop ahead of the RBs if you get here light on WRs.

Williams easily led Denver’s backfield in 2023 despite limited effectiveness coming off his serious knee injury.

If he maintains that role this year, we should see a better version in just his age-24 campaign.

Watson merely needs to stay healthy, and he says they specifically diagnosed and worked on his hamstring issue this offseason.

When on the field, he has seen lead-receiver usage and produced efficiently on the yardage and TD fronts.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, Jayden Reed, Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy

 

Rounds 11 & 12

Top Targets: Xavier Worthy & Dallas Goedert

A Patrick Mahomes WR in the late rounds can’t be a bad bet. Even if Worthy goes quiet in his rookie year, you’ll be able to drop him for a more helpful option.

(Just don’t forget how Rashee Rice’s rookie-year usage picked up late. We’ll watch for similar signals.)

Waiting on your first TE makes drafting a second more sensible … but you also don’t need to do it.

Goedert presents a decent floor thanks to the strength of his offense. The ceiling’s not thrilling but would improve if either of the top two Eagles WRs goes down.

Next Best: Rome Odunze & Jameson Williams

Upside’s the theme of this duo.

Odunze won’t have an easy time earning target share with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen around. But he was the ninth overall pick and a high-volume target in college.

There’s a chance Odunze outperforms Allen right away.

Williams navigated a disappointing first two NFL seasons, but the Lions are saying all the right things about his progress this offseason. And a wary fantasy market could keep his ADP down.

Other options

Courtland Sutton, Keon Coleman

  

Rounds 13 & 14

Top Targets: Justin Herbert & Kendre Miller

If you drafted Hurts, you don’t need a backup QB. But this is also a fine time to grab one if you prefer to have the insurance.

Otherwise, you and your Draft War Room should remain in Upside Mode here.

That highlights Miller, who shares the New Orleans backfield with …

• Jamaal Williams: who stunk last year
• Alvin Kamara: who’s 29 and coming off a sluggish 2023 (3.9 yards per carry, 6.2 yards per catch)

He needs to prove this summer that he’s ready to take advantage. But the opportunity’s there.

Next Best: Jared Goff & Mike Williams

Another backup QB option here, plus a different kind of upside case.

Williams brings proven NFL production but is coming off an ACL tear and assimilating to a new team for the first time in his career.

We’ll see how it goes, but this is plenty late enough to chase his TD upside.

Other Options

Trevor Lawrence, Chase Brown, Brian Thomas Jr., Ty Chandler, Gabe Davis

 

Rounds 15 & 16

Top Targets: K + DST

We still do full-season projections for these positions, but that’s not how you should draft them.

In most formats, you’ll want to cycle through defenses and kickers during the season to take advantage of good matchups and avoid bad ones. Very few options at either position score consistently.

We’ve found a way to weight your draft rankings to favor those defenses with better early matchups. So you can trust that we’re factoring that into your draft rankings.

Kicker is a little different in that you can do well by riding a kicker in a top offense. But that’s also a position not enough fantasy players look to stream. Just don’t go too hard after any kicker, and use our weekly kicker rankings in season to help guide your lineup setting.

 

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