NFL Draft Pick: Round 2, Pick 11
Draft Sharks Model Score: 7.90
Analytics Score: 0.66
Film Score: 0.46
Production Score: 0.36
Musgrave isn’t a finished product.
He exits college with 47 total receptions in 34 games. And he never hit 250 routes in a single season.
But you know what? That’s OK.
The NFL places a premium on high-end athletes at TE. Consider the Relative Athletic Score – a 1-10 scale – of Round 1 TEs since 2013:
2021: Kyle Pitts (9.67)
2019: T.J. Hockenson (9.26), Noah Fant (9.89)
2018: Hayden Hurst (7.67)
2017: Evan Engram (9.19), David Njoku (9.44), O.J. Howard (9.80)
2014: Eric Ebron (7.89)
2013: Tyler Eifert (9.42)
That comes out to an average RAS of 9.1. If you just look at RAS scores of top-12 fantasy TEs from last season, the number is nearly identical.
So, while you need more than top-end athleticism to deliver in fantasy, Musgrave clearly checks that box. His 9.89 RAS ranks fourth among all TEs over the past five drafts.
*To see exactly where Luke Musgrave's dynasty fantasy football value sits today, visit our updated Dynasty Rankings.
An early Round 2 pick, Musgrave joined Green Bay as the fourth TE off the board.
Unfortunately, he wasn’t the only substantial TE addition by the Packers. South Dakota State TE Tucker Kraft arrived in Round 3 – about one round after the Pack added Michigan State WR Jayden Reed.
Mixed in with second-year WR Christian Watson, Green Bay’s pass catching corps is suddenly flush with young talent. Musgrave still has the raw talent to become the long-term No. 2 or 3 target here, giving him clear-cut TE1 dynasty upside. The margin for error simply looks slim.
After all -- can Jordan Love truly develop into a franchise QB? The 24-year-old inked a 2-year extension in early May, making it likely – albeit far from a lock – that he’s Musgrave’s QB through at least 2024.
Musgrave, who starred at OTAs/minicamp, is at least off to a nice start. But a much bigger test awaits when the pads come on at training camp.
Our Dynasty Draft War Room assigns dynamic player values based on your league’s specific settings. These values range from 100 to 0, with 100 being the most valuable player in your league and 0 being the worst rostered player. Use these values to compare players at the same position and across positions for help with draft, trade and add/drop decisions.
*To see Luke Musgrave's dynasty fantasy football value for your league setup, visit the Dynasty Draft War Room.
Arm length: 32.6"
Hand size: 10.4"
40-yard dash: 4.61 seconds
10-yard split: 1.58 seconds
Bench press: DNP
Broad jump: 10'4”
3-cone drill: DNP
Percentiles vs. Combine tight ends since 1999, per MockDraftable.
Musgrave joined Oregon State as a 3-star recruit. The high school WR/TE soon added ~35 pounds, giving him an NFL frame.
His production never followed, however.
After a COVID-shortened 2020, the next season at least turned up a spark. In the final week, Musgrave posted 7 catches, 85 yards, and 1 score vs. Oregon.
Recent winners include:
Musgrave delivered early on. Through two games, he tallied 11 catches, 169 yards, and 1 TD. All on a team-leading 30% target share.
Then, abruptly — the dagger.
Late in Week 2, an MCL tear ended Musgrave’s season. It marked the only injury of his football career.
Here’s some good news: Musgrave progressed to running routes in January, when he called the knee a “non-issue.”
The 22-year-old even participated in the Senior Bowl, where his speed took center stage:
OK – so Musgrave didn’t go 4.4 in the 40-yard dash. (He registered a 4.61.)
But how evident was that play speed at Oregon State? And what other clues can we gather to help determine Musgrave’s dynasty fantasy football value?
Ever seen a Dynasty Trade Value Chart for TE-premium leagues? We've got one. Check it out today!
Games watched: Oregon (2021), Fresno State, Boise State
With only 3 games viewable, it’s tough to draw any sweeping conclusions. Still, the limited sample shows enticing potential.
Take this first clip. Musgrave sheds the defender with quick feet and excellent hand usage. He maintains speed up the seam to secure an on-target throw.
At 6’6, Musgrave uses his size to effectively wall off LBs and DBs. And he doesn't appear bothered by contact …
In this next clip, we see him on another in-breaker. This one lacks some snap, and overall, it’s fair to say his route-running could use work.
Note: Musgrave caught the pass above vs. 6’4, 204-pound S JL Skinner, who projects as a Day 2 pick in the NFL Draft.
A 9.89 RAS Score athlete, Musgrave shows his run-after-catch ability in this final clip:
What’s interesting, though, is how he struggled to avoid tackles. Per Pro Football Focus, Musgrave forced only 2 missed tackles on 47 career receptions.
Also per PFF: Musgrave’s career drop rate is a crazy-high 16.1%.
It’s not a reason to ignore someone with rare size-adjusted athleticism. But it’ll be an area to monitor this summer.
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