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NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Picks: Steelers-Ravens

By Matt Schauf 6:00pm EST 1/1/23


The NFL is doing this to us on purpose.

They actually flexed this Pittsburgh Steelers-Baltimore Ravens game to Sunday night, knowing the utter meh-ness of the teams involved. (To be fair, it replaced Chargers-Rams.)

So we'll get Kenny Pickett in his 2nd game back from a concussion, after he helped revive TE Pat Freiermuth while bringing WR Diontae Johnson's target share back down.

RB Najee Harris faces a Baltimore defense that allowed him just 50 total yards in Week 14 and has been tough on RB scoring.

Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins ran over Pittsburgh for 120 yards last time out, in his return from IR. But he has stopped short of taking over the backfield. Will that work split give him enough touches to be a strong play in tonight's rematch?

Let's check the charts for tonight's top DFS value plays ...


DraftKings

This game carries the smallest Vegas game total of the week (35.5 points), with both teams implied for less than 19. Most showdown slates give us some clear top-shelf plays to target, but this one looks different.

Dobbins and Harris arrive as the only 2 players with 5-digit salaries on DK, and neither looks like a must. Harris will be a much stronger option if he gets targeted the way he did last week (team-high 9). But he totaled just 5 targets across the previous 4 games, including 3 in the 1st Baltimore meeting. (Harris caught 2 for 17 yards.)

Dobbins has averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry in each of 3 games since he returned from IR; 7.6 per rush overall in that span. But he has also averaged just 13.3 carries per outing in that time. He showed the limitation of that backfield split with a meager 59 yards on 12 carries in last week's win at Atlanta.

Gus Edwards out-gained Dobbins (99 yards) on just 1 fewer carry in that game. With neither guy drawing targets and Edwards priced $4600 less, it's tough to argue that Dobbins is the better play.


FanDuel

The higher-priced guys sit higher on the FanDuel chart -- as usual -- but it's still a matter of seeing what fits more than building around particular players. Pickett is interesting, with Baltimore ranking 9th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA over the past 5 weeks, compared with just 23rd against the pass.

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