FF Tips

Ranking Fantasy's 1st-Rounders by Injury Risk

By Jared Smola 11:08am EDT 8/7/19


Nothing kills a fantasy season like losing your 1st-round pick to injury. Just ask anyone who spent a 1st-rounder on Leonard Fournette last year.

Our partners at Sports Injury Predictor have run the numbers and come up with injury probabilities and projected games missed for every fantasy-relevant player.

Let’s take a look at which of this year’s 1st-rounders carry the most and least injury risk. We’ll rank the 12 guys below from most to least risky according to projected games missed.


12. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons

Projected Games Missed: 3.3

Jones’ right foot has been a problem for a long time. He broke a bone in the foot in the pre-draft process in 2011 and needed surgery. He re-broke it and had surgery again in 2013. In 2016, Jones sprained the big toe on his right foot and required surgery that offseason to remove a bunion. And he had another surgery this offseason to remove a bunion. Jones has yet to participate in camp as of August 7.

In between all those right foot issues, he’s dealt with hamstring, ankle and hip injuries. Jones has missed a total of 17 games through 8 NFL seasons.

He’s now played all 16 games in 3 of the past 4 years. But Jones’ injury history — plus his big projected workload — leave him as the biggest injury risk in the 1st round of fantasy drafts.


11. Odell Beckham, WR, Browns

Projected Games Missed: 3.2

Beckham has missed time with injury in 3 of his 5 NFL seasons. A torn hamstring cost him 4 games in his 2014 rookie campaign. He missed the 2017 opener after suffering a left high-ankle sprain in the preseason. Then he fractured that ankle in Week 5 and missed the rest of the year. And this past season, Beckham missed the final 4 games with a badly bruised quad.

That’s a total of 21 games missed over 5 seasons.


10. David Johnson, RB, Cardinals

Projected Games Missed: 2.7

Johnson has made it through all 16 games in 3 of his 4 NFL seasons. But he missed 15 contests in 2017 with a fractured left wrist that required surgery. And he suffered a sprained MCL in 2016 that likely would have cost him games had it not occurred in Week 17.

Throw in a projected 315 touches, and Johnson checks in as the biggest injury risk among the 1st-round RBs.


Sorry, the rest of this content is reserved for DS Insiders.

Get instant access to read it all.

Get the insider information

Already a DS Insider? Login now

Share This!

Agree? Disagree? Tell us what you think in the comments:

comments powered by Disqus

Related Fantasy Football

Podcast: You Should Own a Jet 10-15-19

Don't let the frustrating backfield splits from Week 6 overshadow the offense that's swooping in with plenty of helpful options.

12:10pm EDT 10/15/19 Read More
Podcast: Sell That Wideout? 10-7-19

Week 6 might just feature a seller's market at WR. And we've got a workhorse RB you should try to buy.

10:10pm EDT 10/7/19 Read More
DFS Podcast: Week 5 DraftKings 10-4-19

Which NFC North RB is the better volume bet and just how low can your search for a cheap defense go in Week 5?

7:10pm EDT 10/4/19 Read More
DFS Podcast: Week 5 FanDuel 10-4-19

You can find touch volume without spending the big bucks at RB on FanDuel this week.

3:10pm EDT 10/4/19 Read More
DFS Podcast: Week 4 DraftKings 9-27-19

Wayne Gallman. You in or out? And could WRs from the other side of that matchup unlock serious spending room?

7:09pm EDT 9/27/19 Read More
DFS Podcast: Week 4 FanDuel 9-27-19

Should we fade or ride Seahawks passing-game components off their big Week 3? What about the Cardinals who let us down next Sunday? Let's discuss that and more to help you build your DFS lineups ...

2:09pm EDT 9/27/19 Read More
Podcast: Wayne Gallman & Other Things That Suddenly Matter 9-23-19

Daniel Jones announced his arrival in a big way. Wayne Gallman got a whole lot more important. And there's another Williams to pay attention to in Kansas City. Let's sort out Week 3 and talk about who you should grab in Week 4.

4:09pm EDT 9/23/19 Read More

Read More Articles

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Download on Google Play