The Best Stack Values in Underdog Best Ball Mania 3 Drafts

By Jared Smola 9:36am EDT 7/5/22

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Upside should be top of mind when evaluating stacks in best-ball tournament drafts. (We have ceiling projections for every single player to help there.)

But baseline projections and ADP value shouldn’t be ignored. Ultimately, we win by drafting guys that out-score their cost.

So who are the best stack values in Underdog Best Ball Mania 3 drafts?

I looked at our highest-projected QB + WR/TE stack for every team and then summed up each duo’s total ADP in Underdog drafts over the past week. I then compared that to their expected fantasy points based on a linear regression equation to find the best and worst stack values.

Here’s what I found:

Rams (Matt Stafford + Cooper Kupp)

Our big projection on Kupp is fueling most of the value here. (We talked about why Kupp is in for another huge season on a recent podcast.)

But Stafford also looks like a strong value at his late-8th-round, QB12 ADP. He finished 6th at his position in fantasy points last season and tied for the 6th most top-5 scoring weeks.

There is, of course, massive correlation between these 2 guys. Kupp accounted for 41% of Stafford’s passing fantasy points last year.

Browns (Deshaun Watson + Amari Cooper)

We have Watson projected to play 11 games this season, which is admittedly optimistic. But in a top-heavy tournament like Best Ball Mania 3, we’re predominantly concerned about ceiling. At his current 17th-round ADP, Watson is all ceiling. The upside of even getting 11 games from him far outweighs the downside of taking a full season of zeroes. I think he’s an easy pick amidst the uncertainty right now.

Cooper is an obvious stack with Watson. He’s affordable at his 6th-round ADP and could set a career high in target share this year with Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Bell and Anthony Schwartz behind him on the depth chart.

Vikings (Kirk Cousins + Justin Jefferson)

Cousins finished 11th among QBs in fantasy points last year. He’s going 4 spots below that in recent Underdog drafts – despite the fact that he’ll be playing in an up-tempo, potentially pass-heavier offense under new HC Kevin O’Connell.

That new offense should also lift Jefferson, who’s finished WR7 and WR4 in half-PPR points through 2 NFL seasons.

Bills (Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs)

Dolphins, Bengals and Titans stacks check in as better pure values than the Bills. But I wanted to highlight the Allen + Diggs combo because it’s a positive value even at a super expensive price tag.

It’s a tough stack to nail because you need to spend a 1st-rounder on Diggs and then hope Allen makes it to you in the 3rd. But our lofty projections for those guys say it’s a move worth making.