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Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 13

By Matt Schauf 2:31pm EST 11/30/23

More Data, More Success

When you’re trying to predict the future, it helps to have as much historical data available as possible.

That’s what our fantasy football projections are doing. And every week of the season gives us more data to support those predictions.

That seems to be helping … 

Season-to-Date Results

  • Week 1: 13-22 (three injured)
  • Week 2: 14-14 (four injured)
  • Week 3: 11-10
  • Week 4: 9-11 (two injured)
  • Week 5: 14-11 (three injured)
  • Week 6: 15-20 (three injured)
  • Week 7: 4-8
  • Week 8: 7-8
  • Week 9: 15-10 (one injured)
  • Week 10: 8-4
  • Week 11: 10-4
  • Week 12: 17-6 (two injured)
  • Overall: 137-128

Four straight weeks of going comfortably over .500 has pushed us above that mark for the season. And even two of the misses probably should have hit.

Tank Dell fell short of his 62.5-yard line. But he also had a 62-yard catch negated by an illegal motion penalty.

Josh Downs wound up 5.5 yards short of his line. But he caught just five of 13 targets and averaged 3.2 yards per catch less than his season average on those he did secure.

Let’s see if this week’s picks keep headed in the right direction.

 

Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em

As always, the market lines and our projections will be subject to change throughout the week. Make sure you check our Week 13 fantasy football rankings for updated plays along the way.

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Passing Yards

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Draft Sharks projection: 313.7
Underdog: 279.5
Difference: 34.2

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
DS projection: 312.8
Underdog: 282.5
Difference: 30.3

Not Recommended: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
DS projection: 219.3
Underdog: 198.5
Difference: 20.8

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
DS projection: 272.9
Underdog: 252.5
Difference: 20.4

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
DS projection: 235.3
Underdog: 217.5
Difference: 17.8

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS projection: 257.2
Underdog: 240.5
Difference: 16.7

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
DS projection: 214
Underdog: 199.5
Difference: 14.5

Not Recommended: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
DS projection: 230.1
Underdog: 243.5
Difference: -13.4

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
DS projection: 155.7
Underdog: 174.5
Difference: -18.8

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
DS projection: 205.2
Underdog: 237.5
Difference: -32.3

QB Total Yards

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
DS projection: 297.5
Underdog: 281.5
Difference: 16

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
DS projection: 234.4
Underdog: 213.5
Difference: 20.9

Why ‘Not’?

Bryce Young: I’m honestly not sure I could include him in either category. But I’d rather go total yards than passing yards if I do include Young. He has eclipsed this week’s passing-yardage line just four times through 10 games. Young has gone over 213.5 total yards six times, though, including just last week vs. Tennessee.

Jalen Hurts: It’s possible the Eagles get a decent ground game going against an inconsistent 49ers run defense. But you’ll see a whole bunch of receiving “overs” below, plus the Brock Purdy “over” above. That points to shootout potential for the game. And I’m not interested in playing any Hurts “under” in that circumstance. Hurts sits No. 2 in our Week 13 QB rankings, so there’s no real need for us to revisit his passing-yardage projection vs. the market number.

Receiving Yards

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
DS projection: 78.7
Underdog: 61.5
Difference: 17.2

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
DS projection: 100.3
Underdog: 83.5
Difference: 16.8

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
DS projection: 116.4
Underdog: 100.5
Difference: 15.9

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
DS projection: 62.3
Underdog: 47.5
Difference: 14.8

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
DS projection: 88.6
Underdog: 73.5
Difference: 15.1

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
DS projection: 72.5
Underdog: 57.5
Difference: 15

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
DS projection: 60.8
Underdog: 50.5
Difference: 10.3

Not Recommended: Jonnu Smith, TE, Atlanta Falcons
DS projection: 28.6
Underdog: 18.5
Difference: 10.1

Why ‘Not’?

Jonnu Smith: He’s here for two reasons:

  1. Smith’s past four games have included three with 1 reception or fewer.
  2. The Jets sport a run-funnel defense and putrid offense vs. an Atlanta offense that would love to run all day.

Rushing Yards

Not Recommended: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
DS projection: 75
Underdog: 62.5
Difference: 12.5

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
DS projection: 55.8
Underdog: 43.5
Difference: 12.3

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
DS projection: 70.2
Underdog: 58.5
Difference: 11.7

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
DS projection: 34.7
Underdog: 46.5
Difference: -11.8

Why ‘Not’?

Derrick Henry: Henry has averaged just 12.7 carries per game in losses this season. That included a 13-43 rushing day in the first meeting with Indy. The Colts enter the rematch as 3.5-point favorites. Henry has eclipsed this 62.5-yard line in seven of 11 games. Four of those were victories, another fed off a 63-yard run (vs. Baltimore in England), and only two found him carrying fewer than 17 times. He’s an OK bet for fantasy lineups but riskier here, where a TD doesn’t help you.

RB Total Yards

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
DS projection: 92.9
Underdog: 79.5
Difference: 13.4

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS projection: 99.6
Underdog: 86.5
Difference: 13.1

Not Recommended: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
DS projection: 88.9
Underdog: 76.5
Difference: 12.4

Not Recommended: Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts
DS projection: 83.2
Underdog: 98.5
Difference: -15.3

Why ‘Not’?

Derrick Henry: Sometimes we can use RB total yards as a fallback for uncomfortable rushing-yardage plays. Henry has three straight games with just 1 reception. This is not one of those times.

Zack Moss: Our yardage projections on Moss are fair. Tennessee ranks second in the league in run-defense DVOA. And Moss still sits top-14 across formats in our Week 13 RB rankings. But I’m not putting the “under” on an Underdog Fantasy Pick’em ticket. He had his best game of the season (195 total yards) in the first meeting.

‘Not Recommended’ Results

In this category, a bad record is good. Because these are the guys who qualify by the projections but that I’m suggesting you don’t use in your Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems.

  • Week 9: 2-4
  • Week 10: 1-2
  • Week 11: 2-1
  • Week 12: 3-2
  • Total: 8-9

I’m mad at myself for going “not recommended” on Gabe Davis in a week that clearly favored him. That said, there’s not nearly as much upside to playing such a boom/bust type on a Pick’em ticket as there is to trying him in your fantasy lineup.

If you took a shot on Davis in your fantasy lineup, he paid off big time. If you try him and he doesn’t work out, then you don’t automatically lose your matchup.

If he doesn’t reach his Pick’em line, you’ve lost that play.

He, Tommy DeVito, and Tim Boyle were my three “losses” in this section for the week. Davis is the only one I’d treat differently for Week 12 in hindsight – and I’ll still probably lean toward not trusting him in Pick’ems going forward.

 

More Week 13 Fantasy Football

Matt and Jared preview Week 13 fantasy football action in this video.

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