Top Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick'em Week 2
Can NFL Offenses -- and Our Picks -- Rebound?
I’m not gonna lie. Last week was rough for these picks.
I posted 38 lines here last Wednesday. Three of those guys got knocked out of the final count by injuries. The rest: 13 hits, 22 misses.
You can check the article for specifics. Some low lights:
- The Bengals’ turd was a killer, delivering misses for Joe Burrow and all of his top 3 WRs.
- Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper fell short as well on the other side of that game.
- Raheem Mostert and Khalil Herbert didn’t get enough carries to reach their marks.
But there was more to it
Week 1 turned out to just be a really bad week to chase “overs.” It was a poor offensive week overall.
Just check out these numbers vs. last year’s league averages:
| Week 1 | Category | 2022 |
| 20.5 | Points/team game |
21.9 |
| 4.7 | Yards/play | 5.4 |
| 63.7 | Plays/team game | 63.0 |
| 299.3 | Yards/team game | 340.1 |
| 194.5 | Pass Yds/team game | 218.5 |
| 21.6 | Completions/game | 21.4 |
| 33.8 | Pass Att/game | 33.8 |
Given that plays and passing volume didn’t drop, it seems fair to bet on a rebound in yardage production.
That’s just what we’re doing with this week’s picks (and chasing our own rebound) …
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Best Picks for Underdog Fantasy Pick’em
Remember that market lines and some of our projections will change throughout the week. So check our Week 2 fantasy football rankings for help whenever you’re setting your Pick’em plays.
Passing Yards
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Draft Sharks projection: 226.8
Underdog: 190.5
Difference: 36.3
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
DS: 233.4
Underdog: 198.5
Difference: 34.9
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
DS: 249.8
Underdog: 217.5
Difference: 32.3
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
DS: 244.1
Underdog: 220.5
Difference: 23.6
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DS: 229.3
Underdog: 208.5
Difference: 20.8
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS: 280.1
Underdog: 259.5
Difference: 20.6
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
DS: 213.9
Underdog: 195.5
Difference: 18.4
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
DS: 223.4
Underdog: 206.5
Difference: 16.9
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
DS: 192.1
Underdog: 175.5
Difference: 16.6
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
DS: 285.2
Underdog: 270.5
Difference: 14.7
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
DS: 253.1
Underdog: 239.5
Difference: 13.6
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
DS: 276.8
Underdog: 263.5
Difference: 13.3
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
DS: 267.7
Underdog: 254.5
Difference: 13.2
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
DS: 262.4
Underdog: 249.5
Difference: 12.9
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
DS: 233.2
Underdog: 221.5
Difference: 11.7
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
DS: 272.8
Underdog: 261.5
Difference: 11.3
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
DS: 179.3
Underdog: 190.5
Difference: -11.2
I mentioned last week that I’m just posting the biggest yardage gaps and not adjusting for players I would or wouldn’t use.
Last week I said I wouldn’t go with Najee Harris’ over, even though it made the article. This time, Daniel Jones is my biggest “I’ll post him, but I don’t trust him” line.
Fortunately, you have 16 other QBs to choose from. Expect that number to come down as we get further into the season and everyone has more 2023 data to work from.
Note that Burrow’s back as well. I’m much more willing to bet on a rebound from him and the Bengals – especially against a Ravens D that lost FS Marcus Williams in Week 1.
Receiving Yards
Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
DS: 60.5
Underdog: 45.5
Difference: 15
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
DS: 71.8
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: 12.3
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
DS: 75.5
Underdog: 63.5
Difference: 12
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
DS: 52.3
Underdog: 40.5
Difference: 11.8
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
DS: 66.4
Underdog: 55.5
Difference: 10.9
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
DS: 63.4
Underdog: 53.5
Difference: 9.9
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
DS: 81.8
Underdog: 72.5
Difference: 9.3
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
DS: 52.2
Underdog: 43.5
Difference: 8.7
You saw Brock Purdy carrying one of our biggest passing overs for the week. We also have three of his pass catchers set above market in yardage. And you just might find one more 49er below.
Dallas Goedert won’t be a comfy pick this week, but perhaps he should be. He averaged 58.5 yards per game last season – as well as 55.3 the year before and 47.6 in 2020.
He went catchless at New England last week. But Goedert also topped 43.5 receiving yards in 11 of his 14 healthy games last season (including the playoffs).
Rushing Yards
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
DS: 67.4
Underdog: 50.5
Difference: 16.9
Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints
DS: 69
Underdog: 55.5
Difference: 13.5
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
DS: 58.4
Underdog: 48.5
Difference: 9.9
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
DS: 84.9
Underdog: 75.5
Difference: 9.4
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
DS: 68
Underdog: 59.5
Difference: 8.5
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
DS: 73.7
Underdog: 65.5
Difference: 8.2
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
DS: 64.5
Underdog: 56.5
Difference: 8
Jamaal Williams threw up a dud in the opener, with just 45 yards on 18 carries. That came against a Tennessee defense that ranked among the league’s best vs. the run in 2022. Looks like the Titans might be set to do so again.
If Williams can repeat those 18 carries this week, he’d only need to average 3.1 per tote to get to his yardage line.
Perhaps Miles Sanders’ line above Williams is crediting New Orleans’ D for stifling Derrick Henry in Week 1. But his 63 yards were OK for his 15 carries (4.2 per rush).
Sanders, meanwhile, went 18-72 on the ground in a game his team lost by two TDs. He seems like a strong bet at this number.
How We Make the Rankings
Interested in how we build our projections? Here's some behind-the-scenes talk on what goes into it ...