I’m not gonna lie. Last week was rough for these picks.
I posted 38 lines here last Wednesday. Three of those guys got knocked out of the final count by injuries. The rest: 13 hits, 22 misses.
You can check the article for specifics. Some low lights:
Week 1 turned out to just be a really bad week to chase “overs.” It was a poor offensive week overall.
Just check out these numbers vs. last year’s league averages:
|194.5||Pass Yds/team game||218.5|
Given that plays and passing volume didn’t drop, it seems fair to bet on a rebound in yardage production.
That’s just what we’re doing with this week’s picks (and chasing our own rebound) …
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Remember that market lines and some of our projections will change throughout the week. So check our Week 2 fantasy football rankings for help whenever you’re setting your Pick’em plays.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Draft Sharks projection: 226.8
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
I mentioned last week that I’m just posting the biggest yardage gaps and not adjusting for players I would or wouldn’t use.
Last week I said I wouldn’t go with Najee Harris’ over, even though it made the article. This time, Daniel Jones is my biggest “I’ll post him, but I don’t trust him” line.
Fortunately, you have 16 other QBs to choose from. Expect that number to come down as we get further into the season and everyone has more 2023 data to work from.
Note that Burrow’s back as well. I’m much more willing to bet on a rebound from him and the Bengals – especially against a Ravens D that lost FS Marcus Williams in Week 1.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
You saw Brock Purdy carrying one of our biggest passing overs for the week. We also have three of his pass catchers set above market in yardage. And you just might find one more 49er below.
Dallas Goedert won’t be a comfy pick this week, but perhaps he should be. He averaged 58.5 yards per game last season – as well as 55.3 the year before and 47.6 in 2020.
He went catchless at New England last week. But Goedert also topped 43.5 receiving yards in 11 of his 14 healthy games last season (including the playoffs).
Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Jamaal Williams threw up a dud in the opener, with just 45 yards on 18 carries. That came against a Tennessee defense that ranked among the league’s best vs. the run in 2022. Looks like the Titans might be set to do so again.
If Williams can repeat those 18 carries this week, he’d only need to average 3.1 per tote to get to his yardage line.
Perhaps Miles Sanders’ line above Williams is crediting New Orleans’ D for stifling Derrick Henry in Week 1. But his 63 yards were OK for his 15 carries (4.2 per rush).
Sanders, meanwhile, went 18-72 on the ground in a game his team lost by two TDs. He seems like a strong bet at this number.
Interested in how we build our projections? Here's some behind-the-scenes talk on what goes into it ...