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Week 12 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola 9:33pm EST 11/24/23

Top Plays for Head-to-Head and 50/50 Contests

Here are the guys I’m zeroing in on for DraftKings Week 12 cash games:

 

Quarterback

Josh Allen, Bills ($8,100)

With plenty of quality cheap plays at the other positions, we can afford to pay up at QB this week.

Allen leads main-slate QBs in our projections and ranks third in dollars-per-point value.

He’s coming off an impressive outing against a tough Jets defense. In fact, Allen’s 23.5 DraftKings points in that one were the most any QB has scored vs. the Jets this season.

The matchup is much easier this week against a pass-funnel Eagles defense. Philadelphia ranks fifth in run defense DVOA but 19th in pass defense. As a result, offenses have registered the second-highest pass rate over expected against the Eagles.

They sit 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and have allowed 290+ passing yards and/or multiple passing TDs in seven of 10 games this season.

Expect a voluminous and productive outing from Allen on Sunday.

Also consider:

  • Gardner Minshew, Colts ($5,100)

 

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($6,900)

Last time we saw Taylor, he racked up 23 carries and one target on an 88% snap rate and 74% route rate. It was the culmination of a steady climb back to workhorse status.

Sunday’s matchup admittedly isn’t great. The Bucs are much tougher against the run than the pass. They rank third in run defense DVOA and second in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

But Tampa will be missing LB Lavonte David (groin), who owns the team’s second-best Pro Football Focus run defense grade among front-seven players.

Above all else, though, Taylor is simply too cheap for an uber talented RB who’s a good bet for 20+ touches.

Rachaad White, Buccaneers ($6,100)

White has scored 15.9+ DraftKings points in five straight games; 17.8+ in four straight.

And three of those games were against top-15 RB defenses.

Sunday brings White’s best matchup of the season against the run-funnel Colts. They rank 11th in pass defense DVOA but 24th in run defense DVOA. As a result, opposing offenses have registered the highest run rate over expected against Indianapolis.

The Colts sit 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Jaylen Warren, Steelers ($5,400)

Warren has basically worked his way into an even timeshare with RB Najee Harris. He’s played 46% of the offensive snaps over the past three weeks, compiling 35 carries and 10 targets. He’s parlayed that action into outings of 14.3, 22.0, and 26.5 DK points.

There have been whispers that new co-offensive coordinators Eddie Faulkner and Mike Sullivan could lean even more on Warren going forward.

But even if he maintains the role he’s had the past three weeks, Warren is a strong Week 12 DraftKings value.

He draws a bad Bengals run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA and has allowed 4.6 yards per carry to RBs.

The Steelers are two-point favorites against the Jake Browning-led Bengals and should be able to stick with the ground game throughout this contest.

Also consider:

  • Isaiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($6,200)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($5,800)
  • Najee Harris, Steelers ($4,900)

 

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs, Bills ($8,800)

We’re all in on the Bills against this pass-funnel Eagles defense.

Diggs is coming off two straight disappointing outings. The first came against a hot Broncos pass defense led by CB Patrick Surtain; the second against an uber-talented Jets secondary.

Prior to that, though, Diggs had scored 22+ DraftKings points in six of nine games. He’s fallen short of seven targets just once all season and has six games of 10+ looks.

Diggs is a good bet for double-digit targets on Sunday.

The Eagles rank 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and have given up some big games to premier WRs:

  • 11-159-0 to Justin Jefferson
  • 11-88-1 to Tyreek Hill
  • 11-191-0 to CeeDee Lamb

Josh Downs, Colts ($4,800)

Downs was hampered by a knee injury in his last two games. But he’s off the injury report coming off the bye week.

Just in time for an awesome matchup against the Bucs.

Tampa plays the run tough but ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA. And they’ve been even worse lately. The Bucs’ three worst outings of the season in terms of pass defense DVOA have come over the last five weeks.

This defense ranks 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and has allowed four WRs to top 23 DK points over the last four weeks.

They’ll be without CB Jamel Dean (ankle, foot) on Sunday, while CB Carlton Davis (hip) is listed as questionable. 

Prior to struggling through that knee injury, Downs had averaged 7.3 targets, 5.8 catches, 79 yards, and 0.5 TDs over his previous four games.

Greg Dortch, Cardinals ($3,300)

WR Michael Wilson’s absence landed Dortch in a full-time role last week. He ran a route on 80% of Cardinals pass plays and turned in a 6-76-0 line on a team-high eight targets.

Wilson has already been ruled out for Week 12. And WR Marquise Brown is legitimately questionable after seemingly suffering a heel injury on Wednesday.

Dortch should be in for plenty of volume again this weekend against a mediocre Rams pass defense.

Also consider:

  • Michael Pittman, Colts ($6,800)
  • Drake London, Falcons ($5,000)

 

Tight End

Cade Otton, Bucs ($3,200)

Trey McBride ($4,700) is the best cash-game play at TE in a vacuum. But we’re constrained by a salary cap. And my lineup construction this week – paying up for Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs – requires a cheap TE.

That’s not to say that Otton is a bad play. He checks in as the fourth best dollars-per-point value at TE.

Otton has been a full-time player for the Bucs all season, running a route on 76+% of the team’s pass plays in every game this season, including an 83+% route rate in each of the last seven.

He’s averaging 4.6 targets and 3.4 catches per game on the year and has 4+ grabs in four of his last five outings.

Otton has a relatively high floor for the position. And the ceiling is raised in Sunday’s plus matchup vs. the Colts’ 28th-ranked TE defense.

Also consider:

  • Dalton Kincaid, Bills ($5,300)
  • Evan Engram, Jaguars ($4,200)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Patriots ($3,200)

DraftKings is getting stingy at DST, with no team priced below $2,600.

So we might as well pay up into the low 3K range for an elite option.

The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites vs. the Giants, who sport the lowest implied total on the week at 15.5 points.

QB Tommy DeVito is coming off a strong Week 11 box score – but it came against the barely there Commanders.

Even in that outing, DeVito took a whopping nine sacks. He’s now been sacked on an absurd 21.6% of his dropbacks through four appearances. 

Also consider:

  • Chiefs ($3,100)

 

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