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Week 13 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

By Jared Smola | Updated on Fri, 01 Dec 2023 . 10:53 PM EST

Top Plays for Head-to-Head and 50/50 Contests

Here are the guys I’m zeroing in on for DraftKings Week 13 cash games:

 

Quarterback

Brock Purdy, 49ers ($6,100)

The pricing algorithm on Purdy is still broken.

Granted, he’s coming off his second-worst fantasy outing of the season. But that was a divisional road game, which tend to be tricky.

Prior to that, Purdy had topped 23 DraftKings points in three straight games; and 21 points in six of eight.

He’s in an excellent bounce-back spot this weekend against the pass-funnel Eagles. Philly ranks fourth in run defense DVOA but 21st in pass defense. As a result, they own the league’s second-highest pass rate over expected against.

Expect elevated passing volume for Purdy in this one.

His 49ers’ 25.25-point implied total is tied for third-highest on the main slate.

Also consider:

  • Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins ($7,900)

 

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($6,700)

Gibbs has been out-carried 27 to 19 by David Montgomery over the past two weeks.

But he’s racked up 14 targets over those two games – and has a whopping 34 targets over his last five outings.

Gibbs is in an Alvin Kamara-esque role right now, which is super valuable in DraftKings’ full PPR scoring.

I like the Lions’ chances of a big bounce-back game vs. a banged-up New Orleans defense this weekend.

The Saints have coughed up 5.1 yards per carry to RBs over their last four games and are down to 22nd in run defense DVOA.

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($6,000)

Stevenson has been getting elite passing game usage for a while now. He’s seen 5+ targets in five of his last six games (and four in the other).

He tacked on to that a bigger early-down role coming off the bye last week. Stevenson set season highs with a:

  • 78% snap rate
  • 68% carry share

The result: 21 carries, five targets, and 21.7 DraftKings points.

This weekend brings the Chargers’ 21st-ranked RB defense to town. 

Zack Moss, Colts ($4,600)

We won’t spend too much time here. Moss is the first real lock-button play we’ve had this season. (At least that I can remember. I’m getting old.)

Jonathan Taylor’s thumb injury leaves Moss back in the feature role he played in Weeks 2 through 4. He tallied 22, 33, and 19 opportunities (carries + targets) in those games, scoring 20.7, 25.5, and 9.0 DK points.

Moss gets a tough on-paper matchup vs. the Titans on Sunday. But he smoked them for 165 yards and two TDs on 23 carries in Week 5, Taylor’s first game back.

Moss is about $2,000 underpriced.

Also consider:

  • Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($6,700)
  • Rachaad White, Buccaneers ($6,300)

  

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($9,600)

Fantasy’s No. 1 WR gets the No. 32 WR defense.

It’s a particularly good matchup for Hill against a Commanders pass defense that gives up explosive pass plays in bunches. No team has allowed more completions of 15+ yards.

Josh Downs, Colts ($5,100)

Downs underwhelmed with just 9.3 DraftKings points last week.

But he saw another 13 targets from QB Gardner Minshew.

In five healthy games with Minshew this season, Downs has averaged:

  • 9.6 targets
  • 6.0 catches
  • 63.6 yards
  • 0.4 TDs

Sunday brings a matchup against the Titans’ 27th-ranked WR defense.

Curtis Samuel, Commanders ($4,100)

Samuel has caught 4+ balls in six of nine full games this season.

Washington should chuck it a bunch, as usual, as 9.5-point underdogs to Miami this weekend.

And Samuel has the best matchup among Washington’s three primary receivers against Dolphins slot CB Kader Kohou, who ranks 93rd among 96 qualifying CBs in passer rating allowed in coverage.

Also consider:

  • Michael Pittman, Colts ($7,100)
  • Greg Dortch, Cardinals ($3,700)

 

Tight Ends

David Njoku, Browns ($4,100)

Njoku has seen 8+ targets in five of his last six games. He saw six in the other.

That’s awesome volume at a position at which it’s tough to find reliable volume.

QB Joe Flacco adds some unknown to Njoku’s target profile. But Flacco should be an upgrade over QBs Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker. And I believe Njoku’s volume has been more by design than a product of his QB.

Njoku also gets an excellent matchup this weekend vs. the Rams, who rank 29th in both TE coverage DVOA and adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Also consider:

  • Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,600)
  • Brevin Jordan, Texans ($2,500)

  

Defense/Special Teams

Falcons ($3,400)

This might be the most I’ve ever paid for a DST in cash. And it’s not even a good defense!

But DraftKings has made DST more challenging lately, raising the salary floor and pricing up DSTs in good matchups.

The Falcons check in as the second-best DST value on the slate according to our projections, despite the elevated salary. They get QB Tim Boyle, who has thrown an INT on an absurd 7.0% of his career passes.

The Jets’ 15.75-point implied total is tied for the lowest on the main slate.

Also consider:

  • 49ers ($3,000)

 

Jared Smola Author Image
Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
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