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Week 14 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 10:22pm EST 12/9/23

Stacks

Josh Allen ($8,300) + Gabe Davis ($5,800)

In two games under OC Joe Brady, Allen has scored:

  • 23.5 DraftKings points vs. the Jets (2nd most points by a QB vs. the Jets this season)
  • 44.7 points vs. the Eagles

We haven’t challenged the Chiefs defense much on DraftKings this season. But the unit is dealing with some injuries now and just coughed up a 267-3-0 passing line to Packers QB Jordan Love.

Really, though, this is more about Allen and the Bills. This offense is riding some momentum. And, at 6-6, this team is essentially in must-win territory now. No point in holding back anymore – which could mean more running from Allen.

I certainly wouldn’t blame you for including WR Stefon Diggs in an Allen stack. But Davis will be my first priority.

Why? 

His 8-201-4 line vs. Kansas City in the playoffs a couple of years ago doesn’t hurt.

But the bigger reason is that the Chiefs are one of only three teams allowing more yards per game to opposing No. 2 WRs than No. 1s. DVOA ranks Kansas City seventh in coverage against No. 1s but just 24th against No. 2s.

Top CB L’Jarius Sneed has contained a handful of high-end No. 1 WRs this season. But the Chiefs’ other outside CB, Jaylen Watson, ranks 93rd among 116 CBs in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades and 100th in passer rating allowed in coverage. 

Plenty of secondary options have had big games against the Chiefs:

  • Christian Kirk 11-110-0
  • Jordan Addison 6-64-1
  • Josh Palmer 5-133-0
  • DeVonta Smith 6-99-0
  • Jakobi Meyers 6-79-1

Davis already has four games of 21+ DK points on his ledger this season.

Desmond Ridder ($5,000) + Drake London ($4,600)

Gross, I know. But hear me out.

Ridder has already topped 22 DK points three times this year, including a 29.2-pointer in Week 5.

All three of those games came at home. On the season, Ridder is averaging 18.8 DK points per game at home vs. just 9.2 on the road.

He’s at home this weekend and gets a Bucs defense sitting 22nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Perhaps more importantly, Tampa Bay ranks fourth in pass rate over expected against. That means teams are shifting heavily toward the pass against this defense. 

Will Arthur Smith follow suit? Who knows? 

Ridder threw just 25 passes in the Week 7 win over the Bucs. But the Falcons’ +5% pass rate over expected in that one was their second-highest of the season.

London is an easy stack with Ridder. At $4,600, he’s at his cheapest price of the season and checks in as the top dollars-per-point value among main-slate WRs.

London scored 18.7, 14.7, and 24.5 DK points in Ridder’s three games of 22+ points this season.

Considering the Ridder + London stack costs just $9,600, we only need about 40 points from the pair to keep us on pace to take down a tournament. 

Also consider:

  • Justin Fields ($6,800) + D.J. Moore ($6,500)
  • Russell Wilson ($5,800) + Courtland Sutton ($6,100)

 

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($6,600)

Gibbs was a major bust last week and has now totaled just 17.3 DK points over his last two games. He’s been out-carried 33 to 19 by RB David Montgomery during that time.

This is a risky play. But we’re also getting Gibbs at 3% projected ownership.

And I like his spot in this matchup against the Bears.

Chicago has been a stout run defense all season, sitting 11th in DVOA and allowing just 3.4 yards per carry to RBs.

But the Bears struggle defending RBs in the passing game. They rank 30th in RB coverage DVOA and have allowed the:

  • 3rd most RB catches
  • Most RB receiving yards
  • 2nd most RB receiving TDs

Gibbs scored 21.5 DK points when these teams met a few weeks ago. He ran for just 36 yards and a score but caught all six of his targets for 59 yards.

James Cook, Bills ($6,000)

If I’m not stacking the Bills passing game, I’ll probably be playing Cook.

In his two games under OC Joe Brady, he’s scored 19.2 and 16.0 DK points, despite not finding the end zone.

He’s handled 20 and 22 opportunities (carries + targets) in those games – two of his three highest totals on the season.

Only five RBs tallied more expected PPR points per game than Cook across Weeks 11 and 12.

Now Cook gets a Chiefs run defense that ranks dead last in DVOA over the past five weeks, coughing up 5.4 yards per carry to RBs.

Also consider:

  • Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($9,200)
  • Rachaad White, Bucs ($6,800)
  • Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($6,500)
  • Joe Mixon, Bengals ($6,100)
  • Zack Moss, Colts ($5,900)
  • Javonte Williams, Broncos ($5,800)
  • Keaton Mitchell, Ravens ($4,900)
  • Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs ($4,800)

 

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans, Bucs ($7,700)

I’ve done a bad job. I haven’t recommended Evans as a tournament play nearly enough.

The guy is having an awesome season, ranking:

  • 16th among WRs in catches
  • 8th in receiving yards
  • 2nd in receiving TDs
  • 9th in PPR points per game

And he’s continued to be a spike-week king. Evans has four games of 25+ DK points this season, with three of those coming over his last four outings.

He has a tough on-paper matchup against the Falcons’ sixth-ranked WR defense this weekend. But Evans beat them for a 6-82-1 line back in Week 7.

Top CB A.J. Terrell is questionable for the rematch with a concussion. His absence would be a significant boost for Evans’ matchup.

Odell Beckham, Ravens ($3,800)

Keep an eye on the weather in Baltimore on Sunday morning. It could be rainy and windy.

But if the forecast looks doable, I like Beckham as a cheap play at 3% projected ownership.

He ran a route on just 42% of pass plays over Baltimore’s last two games – presumably because of a shoulder injury.

But Beckham still somehow managed to draw a 25% target share over those two games.

Now Beckham is off the Week 14 injury report, so there’s a good chance he sees a spike in playing time against the Rams on Sunday. 

If he can pair that with a similar target-per-route rate, we could be looking at strong volume – especially at this price tag.

Also consider:

  • Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($7,600)
  • Michael Pittman, Colts ($7,300)
  • Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($6,800)
  • D.J. Moore, Bears ($6,500)
  • Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($6,100)
  • Gabe Davis, Bills ($5,800)
  • Rashee Rice, Chiefs ($5,400)
  • Josh Downs, Colts ($4,900)
  • Drake London, Falcons ($4,600)
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($4,100)

  

Tight Ends

Isiah Likely, Ravens ($3,500)

Likely did not pop in the box score sans Mark Andrews last time out, catching four balls for 40 scoreless yards.

But he ran a route on 83% of Ravens pass plays and drew 19% of the team’s targets. Those peripherals give Likely an exciting ceiling going forward.

Sunday’s matchup vs. the Rams should give him a boost toward that ceiling. Los Angeles ranks 29th in TE coverage DVOA and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Brevin Jordan, Texans ($3,100)

Stepping in for the injured TE Dalton Schultz, Jordan garnered five targets for a 19% share last week.

Don’t be surprised if he’s similarly involved this Sunday, with Schultz out again.

The Texans, of course, lost WR Tank Dell for the season. And they get a Jets defense that ranks first in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs but just 18th against TEs.

In fact, no team has given up more TDs to TEs than the Jets’ seven.

Also consider:

  • Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($7,800)
  • George Kittle, 49ers ($5,900)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Ravens ($3,300)

Vikings ($3,100)

Browns ($3,000)

Jets ($2,900)

 

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