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Week 15 DraftKings Picks

By Jared Smola 10:12am EST 12/13/19


QBs

Cash Cornerstones

Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($6,300)

The matchup isn’t ideal. The Rams sit 9th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense rankings, 5th in DraftKings points allowed to QBs and 11th in adjusted fantasy points allowed.

But Prescott has been money at home all season, averaging 351 yards and 2.3 TDs per game. He’s topped 21 DK points in all 6 of those games. And 3 of those have come against defenses ranked top 12 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs (Packers, Vikings, Bills).

Rams-Cowboys sports a big 49-point over/under and features 2 teams ranked top 4 in Football Outsiders’ situation-neutral pace. Expect lots of plays and points in this one.

Prescott checks in as the top dollars-per-point value at QB by a comfortable margin.

Eli Manning, Giants ($5,200)

If you’re looking to go cheap at QB, grit your teeth and click Eli’s name.

He was OK in his return on Monday night, tallying 203 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs in rainy Philadelphia.

But this is really about price and matchup. Manning is dirt cheap for a home game against a Dolphins defense ranked dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, 27th in DK points allowed to QBs and 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed. Miami has allowed multiple pass TDs in 11 of 13 games.

The Giants’ 25-point implied total is 8th highest on the main slate.


Tournament Target

Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers ($6,100)

Over his last 8 games, Garoppolo has posted a 70% completion rate, 8.5 yards per attempt, 18 TDs and 5 INTs. Only 3 QBs have scored more fantasy points during that stretch.

Now, his production has been volatile. Garoppolo has topped 31 DK points in 3 of those 8 games but posted 14 or fewer in 4 of them. But that’s exactly why he’s a tournament play.

Sunday could bring another blowup spot at home against a Falcons defense sitting 26th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense rankings, 23rd in DK points allowed to QBs and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed.

The ‘Niners are sporting a huge 29.75-point implied total — highest on the main slate.

And FanShare projects Garoppolo for just 4.3% ownership.



RBs

Cash Cornerstones

Chris Carson, Seahawks ($7,500)

The stars have aligned for Carson this week.

Rashaad Penny is out with his ACL injury, putting Carson back into an every-down role. In the 4 games Penny hasn’t registered a touch in this season, Carson has averaged 20.5 carries and 3.5 targets.

And the matchup is prime. The Panthers rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and DraftKings points allowed to RBs. They’ve been especially bad over the last 3 weeks, coughing up 512 yards and 6 TDs on 6.9 yards per carry to RBs.

Todd Gurley, Rams ($6,000)

Gurley is still priced for his early-season usage. He’s turned back into the Rams’ offensive focal point lately.

After reaching 20 opportunities (carries + targets) in just 2 of his first 8 games, Gurley has hit that mark in 3 of his last 4. And he’s scored 18.5+ DK points in all 3 of those.

Gurley should be busy again in Sunday’s likely shootout in Dallas. The Cowboys have been a middling RB defense, ranking 16th in DK points allowed to the position and 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed.


Tournament Targets

Saquon Barkley, Giants ($7,700)

Barkley should be a cash-game play at this price and in this matchup. But he simply hasn’t been good since returning from that high-ankle sprain.

Barkley has failed to reach double-digit DK points in 3 of his last 4 games. It’s worth noting, though, that all 3 of those games have come against teams ranked top 11 in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings and top 15 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Now he gets the Dolphins, who sit 29th in Football Outsiders’ run defense rankings and 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed. Miami has allowed 7 RBs to top 20 DK points, including 5 outings of 24+ points.

Josh Jacobs, Raiders ($7,000)

Playing through a fractured shoulder, Jacobs carries too much risk to play in cash games. But his ceiling is worth getting into tournament lineups.

Remember that he had been playing through this shoulder injury since Week 7. In the proceeding 6 games, he averaged 18.2 carries, 2.2 targets and 15.3 DK points.

If Jacobs gets that kind of usage this weekend, he should turn in a big one. He draws a Jaguars defense that’s seemingly thrown in the towel on the season. Over the last 4 games, Jacksonville has coughed up 653 yards and 8 TDs on 6.3 yards per carry to RBs.



WRs

Cash Cornerstones

Robert Woods, WR, Rams ($6,200)

Over his last 4 games, Woods has averaged a whopping 11.8 targets, 8.3 catches and 116 yards. He’s scored 15.7+ DK points in all 4, including 33.2 and 25.7 points over the past 2 weeks.

Woods’ price doesn’t come close to matching his recent usage and production. He checks in as the 3rd best dollars-per-point WR value on the main slate.

Danny Amendola, Lions ($4,100)

It’s never exciting to play this guy. But Amendola is a good bet to return cash-game value this week.

He’s already seen 8 targets in each of QB David Blough’s 2 starts. Now the Lions are without WR Marvin Jones, who’s averaged 7 targets per game this year. So Amendola should pick up a little more volume.

And the matchup is sweet. The Bucs rank dead last in DraftKings points allowed to WRs and 31st in points allowed to slot receivers.

Chris Conley, Jaguars ($3,600)

Here’s a cheap source of volume — in a good matchup, to boot.

Conley has averaged 5.5 targets per game this season. That number should get a boost with WR D.J. Chark, who’s averaged 8.2 targets per game, expected to miss this one with his ankle injury.

And Conley gets a Raiders defense sitting 26th in DK points allowed to WRs. Over the last 8 weeks, Oakland has allowed the 10th most points to outside WRs, which is where Conley lines up 92% of the time.


Tournament Targets

Amari Cooper, Cowboys ($6,300)

Like the rest of Dallas’ offense, Cooper has been much better at home than on the road this season. He’s averaged a huge 7.8 catches, 126 yards and .8 TDs in 6 home games, topping 25 DK points in 4 of them.

Cooper figures to see a bunch of Rams CB Jalen Ramsey on Sunday, which has me shying away from him in cash. But that’s a matchup Cooper is capable of winning. He has tournament-winning upside at this price tag.

FanShare projects Cooper for just 5.4% ownership.

Mike Williams, Chargers ($4,600)

He finally broke the TD seal last week — and the scores could start flowing now.

Williams’ yardage has been surprisingly steady, anyway, despite muted volume. He’s posted 55+ yards in 6 straight games and topped 100 yards in 2 of those.

Sunday brings a nice matchup against a Vikings defense that’s tougher against the run than the pass. That should boost Williams’ volume. And Minnesota has been especially bad against outside WRs. In fact, no team has allowed more fantasy points to outside WRs over the last 8 weeks.



TEs

Cash Cornerstone

Tyler Higbee, Rams ($3,900)

Over the last 2 weeks, Higbee leads all TEs in targets, catches, air yards and yards. He’s scored 26.7 and 21.6 DraftKings points in those games.

So Higbee is way underpriced here — especially for Sunday’s plus matchup against a Cowboys defense sitting 29th in Football Outsiders’ TE coverage rankings and 27th in DK points allowed to TEs.


Tournament Target

O.J. Howard, Bucs ($3,500)

Everyone’s trying to figure out which Bucs WR will pick up the 9.1 targets per game Mike Evans is leaving behind. But what if Howard is the biggest beneficiary?

His playing time has been fine in 3 games since getting benched: 78%, 83% and 87% snap rates. He’s totaled just 13 targets in those outings, but Evans’ absence opens up a ton of opportunity.

This is also a nice matchup for Howard against a Lions defense that Football Outsiders ranks 26th in TE coverage.



DSTs

Cash Cornerstone

Lions ($2,300)

We argued for playing the Colts defense vs. the Bucs last week. Indy delivered 11 DraftKings points.

The Lions are the next defense to get Jameis Winston (with a fractured thumb) and the Bucs.


Tournament Target

Eagles ($3,400)

With Dwayne Haskins under center for the past 5 games, the Redskins have allowed 4.4 sacks per game, turned it over 4 total times and averaged just 17.8 points per game.

Eagles-Redskins is the 2nd biggest mismatch on the main slate when it comes to defensive pressures forced and offensive pressures allowed.

FanShare projects the Eagles DST for just 3.3% ownership.


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