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Week 15 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 11:33pm EST 12/16/23

Stacks

Matt Stafford + Cooper Kupp + Puka Nacua

Stafford certainly isn’t sneaking up on anyone. He’s projected for 22% ownership.

But I’d argue that he should be owned at that level considering his price, recent play, and matchup.

Stafford rolls into Sunday with 802 passing yards, 10 TDs, and 71 DraftKings points over his last three outings.

Now comes a home game with no weather concerns against a pathetic Commanders pass defense. Washington ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Eight of 13 QBs to face the Commanders this season have thrown for either 300+ yards and 2+ TDs or 3+ TDs.

That’s the type of performance we’ll need from Stafford to take home a tournament.

Kupp (14%) and Nacua (18%) will also carry plenty of ownership. But I don’t expect many teams to use both of them with Stafford.

Or at least not as many people that should play this double stack. 

If Stafford does have that tournament-winning outing, there’s a good chance that both Kupp and Nacua deliver. Kupp has drawn a 25% target share in his nine games this season, while Nacua is sitting on a 28% target share.

The Commanders have already allowed two WRs to top 20 DK points in the same game twice this season.

Jordan Love + Jayden Reed + Tucker Kraft

Love would be projected for much more than 5% ownership if:

  1. He wasn’t coming off an ugly Week 14.
  2. He wasn’t priced $200 above super-chalky Matt Stafford.

Love was awesome in his five games prior to last week, completing 66% of his passes at 7.9 yards per attempt with 11 TDs vs. two INTs. He scored 23.6+ DK points in three of those five games.

Sunday brings a prime bounce-back spot at home for the Bucs’ 26th-ranked QB defense. Tampa Bay just coughed up a career-high 347 passing yards to Desmond Ridder last week.

The Packers have the third biggest passing matchup advantage on the main slate based on DVOA over the last five weeks (behind only the Rams and 49ers).

Love is an even more attractive tournament play because his stacking options are so cheap. 

Reed is one of the top values on the slate – and the fact that he’ll be chalky isn’t a big deal since Love won’t be.

Kraft is also a strong play based on his usage with TE Luke Musgrave out over the past three games. Kraft has run a route on 84% of Packers pass plays and drawn a decent 11% target share over that span. The Bucs rank 14th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

WR Romeo Doubs is also worth considering on Love teams if you’re looking for a lower-owned option. He ranks ninth among WRs with 13 end-zone targets this season.

Also consider:

  • Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs
  • Brock Purdy + Brandon Aiyuk + George Kittle

 

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey (31%), Kyren Williams (36%), and Ezekiel Elliott (34%) project to soak up a ton of ownership.

McCaffrey and Williams are awesome plays that should not be faded. Just be careful about playing them together in the same lineup.

Elliott has a nice volume-based floor. But I don’t believe he has the upside to warrant 34% ownership in a bad Patriots offense sporting a 14.25-point implied total. (Yes, I’m aware that Zeke scored 27 DK points last week.)

A couple of low-owned RBs to consider:

Saquon Barkley, Giants 

He’s priced just $200 below Kyren Williams, so it makes sense that Barkley is projected for just 10% ownership.

But he’s been really good with QB Tommy DeVito the past four weeks. Barkley has averaged 70 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. And he’s drawn 3.8 targets per game on a 15% target share.

He’s failed to reach double-digit DK points in two of those games – but scored 30.0 and 24.1 in the other two.

Barkley gets a struggling Saints defense on Sunday that ranks 31st in run defense DVOA over the last five weeks. New Orleans has coughed up 4.7 yards per carry and four total RB TDs over that span.

Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs

McKinnon was out-carried 11 to four by RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire last week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar carry split this Sunday.

But McKinnon played just two fewer snaps than CEH and ran one more route.

McKinnon remains the best bet for pass-catching production in the backfield this week. 

That could be key in Sunday’s matchup against a pass-funnel Patriots defense. New England ranks first in run defense DVOA over the last five weeks but just 18th in pass defense. That should push the Chiefs toward a pass-heavy game plan.

And McKinnon could present a nice mismatch against a Patriots squad that sits 28th in RB coverage DVOA. New England has allowed the 12th most receptions and 13th most receiving yards to RBs. 

Also consider:

  • Derrick Henry, Titans
  • Bijan Robinson, Falcons
  • Tony Pollard, Cowboys
  • Antonio Gibson, Commanders

 

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans, Buccaneers

Evans cost people last week – myself included.

But we’re over it and ready to go right back to a guy who’s flashed a high ceiling throughout the season.

Evans has four games of 25+ DraftKings points this season. Here’s how many 25-pointers other high-priced WRs on this main slate have:

  • CeeDee Lamb - 5
  • Stefon Diggs - 3
  • Cooper Kupp - 2
  • Deebo Samuel - 3
  • Puka Nacua - 4
  • Brandon Aiyuk - 2

Evans’ 5% projected ownership is lower than all six of those guys.

He gets a Packers squad that’s slumped to 27th in pass defense DVOA over the last five weeks.

Rashid Shaheed, Saints

Shaheed was a full participant in Friday’s practice and left off the final injury report, so it looks like he’s pretty much back to 100% after missing the last two games with a thigh injury.

WR Chris Olave, meanwhile, didn’t practice at all this week with an ankle injury. He’s a game-time decision for Sunday. WR Michael Thomas remains on IR.

So Shaheed has the potential to play a big role against a burnable Giants secondary that ranks 22nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

And, unlike other cheap WRs such as Wan’Dale Robinson and Demario Douglas, Shaheed has proven big-play ability that gives him a clearer path to a big fantasy outing. He already has games of 27.3, 20.0, and 18.3 DK points this season.

Also consider:

  • CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
  • Stefon Diggs, Bills
  • Cooper Kupp, Rams
  • Puka Nacua, Rams
  • Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
  • Rashee Rice, Chiefs
  • Romeo Doubs, Packers
  • Jayden Reed, Packers
  • Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants

 

Tight Ends

George Kittle, 49ers 

Kittle is seemingly getting lost in this slate, projected for just 5% ownership.

That’s despite the fact that his 49ers are implied for a slate-high 30.5 points.

And despite the fact that Kittle already has four games of 22+ DraftKings points this season. TE Travis Kelce, by comparison, has three such games.

Kittle brings an awesome combination of upside and ownership.

Also consider:

  • Taysom Hill, Saints
  • Dalton Kincaid, Bills
  • Jake Ferguson, Cowboys
  • Logan Thomas, Commanders
  • Tucker Kraft, Packers

 

Defense/Special Teams

Rams 

Giants 

Jets

  

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